This morning, oil prices reached an eight successive maxima. All factors indicate that the increase in the prices of black gold in the near future, will continue. From the perspective of technical analysis of the trend is confirmed by the volume of trades: turnover in the Asian session, exceeded 10 times its average value. Fundamental factors for growth, too, even otbavlyay. Two short-term factors. First - this is the ongoing protests in Iran, which should only increase after the Council of Islamic Revolution victory today confirmed M. Ahmadinejad in presidential elections. In the future, the protests could lead to a complete halt of oil production in the country. Second - Strengthening the rebels in Nigeria. The long-term factor - the former: the inflation process in the U.S. and global economies that have already been launched. Meanwhile, another out of the credit crisis is not: it is necessary to increase the scale of prices, and after him, and the income of borrowers in nominal terms. Then a new level of income will allow them to rebuild their creditworthiness (since payments on debt will remain stable). In doing so, improve credit worthiness using the inflation rate is not very easy task: in terms of growth the last rise and long-term interest rates, hurting the creditworthiness of the economic actors. Thus, along with the increase in inflation, the financial authorities will be required to maintain long-term rates at a low level, purchase long Treasures. A high inflation coupled with low interest rates is good not only for the price of commodities, but also for the quotation of shares. Interestingly, the LED on the calculation, the average oil prices in 2009 will be $ 54 per barrel. Given that in the first half of the average price of $ 50.61 per barrel in the second, they must be (logically LED) at $ 57.39. And since now the price of Urals is $70.53 per barrel, that means the end of the year it should come down to $ 44.25. In the current news and inflationary environment, we do not believe in such a scenario. However, pleased that make up the budget based on the pessimistic scenarios. We expect that the average oil price in the second half will be around $ 85 a barrel. Given that the first half of the budget should receive an additional 320 billion rubles. oil and gas revenues, the budget deficit this year is unlikely to exceed 1.5 trillion. rub. This will help prevent a shortage of low ruble to 27 rubles. for-dollar by the end of the year. The increase in oil prices would also lead to lower profitability of Russian sovereign bonds and the growth of quotations of shares. We predict higher oil prices to $ 75 dollars per barrel in the coming days, but before the end of the year to $ 100 a barrel. As a result, within a half months, the MICEX index reaches 1350 points, and by the end of the year - 1700 points. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 3 users rated material at 3. Analyst Ratings
USD /JPY The main movement in prices occurs in the range, limited levels of 95.00 - 96.00. Direction indicators on the 4-hour graph (Figure 1) makes it possible to speak in favor of falling to its lower limit, followed by its testing. And trend indicator OsMA, and both bear an oscillator developed in the area. At the time schedule (Fig. 2) OsMA confidently turned down, thus reaffirming the presumption of the possibility of falling prices. At the same time, SS (in the zone pereprodannosti) and RSI set turn in the opposite direction. Therefore, do not exclude the possibility that before you continue to drop prices again to return to a mark 96.00. So, in my opinion, is to wait for clarification. The possibility of short sales with a close stop-loss seen in the lapel of the level of 96.00 in the presence of confirming signals on charts smaller time interval. Support: 95.40/30, 95.00/94.90, 94.60/50, 94.10/00, 93.60/50, 93.20/00, 92.80/75, 92.40, 92.00, 91.55, 91.00, 90.70, 90.00. Resistance: 95.90/96.00, 96.30, 96.60, 97.00, 97.50/75, 98.00, 98.35, 98.60, 98.90/99.00, 99.40/60, 100.00, 100.50, 101.00, 101.40/50, 101.70, 102.00/10, 102.60, 102.90, 103.60, 104.00. US /DCHF Prices are consolidated in the district-level support to 1.0800. If he will be overcome to continue falling, the primary purpose of which is likely to become a mark 1.0760. In favor of such an outcome suggests that the trend indicator OsMA at 4-hour graph (Figure 3) sent down. At the same time, the oscillators are deployed upwards, thereby signaling to the back of progress toward 1.0840/50. At the time schedule (Fig. 4) OsMA directed upwards, thus reaffirming the presumption of the possibility of beginning rollback. Oscillators raznonapravleny. Given the above, in my opinion, the possibility of opening positions on the market with a close stop-loss should be considered only after the confirmation of a breakthrough level of support 1.0800. Support: 1.0800, 1.0760, 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0650/30, 1.0615/00, 1.0550, 1.0500/1.0490, 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0250, 1.0200, 1.0175, 1.0130, 1.0100, 1.0070. Resistance: 1.0840/50, 1.0900, 1.0935/40, 1.0970, 1.1000/10, 1.1050/60, 1.1100/20, 1.1150, 1.1200/15, 1.1270, 1.1320, 1.1375, 1.1400, 1.1450.
After June 30, the realization of mobile terminals (mobile phones), IMEI codes are missing in the generalized database information system of mobile terminals SE Ukrainian State Center of Radio Frequencies (UGTSR) is prohibited. This was reported in the press-service UGTSR. In the absence of code IMEI bought a mobile phone in a generalized framework, in UGTSR advised do not buy this phone, despite all the arguments and the promise of the seller. It is known that the buyer can check the availability of the code IMEI bought a mobile phone in the generalized basis via the Internet, visit the website UGTSR through SMS. As noted in the message UGTSR, Order of the realization in Ukraine and emitting radio-electronic devices is the decision of the National Commission for Communications Regulation of Ukraine (NCRC) of 05.02.2009, № 1339. The marked procedure of accounting for the IMEI code in a compiled database, maintained by the UGTSR. This decision NCRC provides that after July 30, mobile operators will connect the new mobile phones subscribers only subject to the availability of their IMEI code in a compiled database.
Futures for shares of OAO LUKOIL (LKU9): in the morning futures in contango LKU9 located at 100 points, while podrastaya by 13-00 Moscow time on 4.5% (Fig. 1). Fig. 1 History baseline (within days) 1 The number of open positions from the start of trades increased by 5 000 and continues to remain at modest levels - 66 of 000 contracts (Fig. 2). Fig. 2 Changes in the open position (within days) 2 In the long term, the market remains in the descending trend. Volatility September putov outside money - higher than the September call outside money (Fig. 3). We are witnessing a volatility smirk, which indicates that the downward movement should be resumed. Figure 3. Exchange IV (within days) 3 If you talk about the number of open positions, the maximum number of - at putah LK14000U9 (put max, Fig. 4), and Collen LK18000I9 (call max, Fig. 4). Figure 4. Levels optional support /resistance 4 The most likely scenario: consolidation in the region of 14 000. Least likely scenario: a return to the levels of resistance in the area of 18 000. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 1 users rated material at 2. Analyst Ratings
OAO Izhneftemash, a member of the business of Oil and gas equipment company nefteservisnoy Riemer ChTPZ Group division, has completed delivery of 850 deep-rod pumps (GSHN) for the company Tatneft on the treaty for the second quarter of 2009. Execution of the contract allowed the almost complete closure of the annual requirement of OAO Tatneft in GSHN. Tatneft together with JSC Surgutneftegaz and OJSC Bashneft is among the major customers of deep rod pump production Izhneftemasha. During 2008, the company for the oil companies of Tatarstan was manufactured GSHN 1340, with some of them - in a special performance, which take into account the individual needs of the customer to the specific conditions of operation of equipment.
30.06.2009 at 10:30 am in the market for deposits of individuals was recorded as follows. For input 5000,00 UAH offers banks fluctuate in following ranges: At 1 month - 3.00% - 22.50% per annum, with 22.50% - Delta Bank; At 3 months - 10.25% - 24.00% per annum, with 24.00% - Active-Bank, Delta Bank; At 6 months - 12.25% - 24.50% per annum, with 24.50% - Delta Bank, Bank ERDE; At 9 months - 12.50% - 25.00% per annum, with 25.00% - Delta Bank; At 12 months - 15.00% - 25.50% per annum, with 25.50% - Delta Bank; At 18 months - 15.25% - 25.00% per annum, with 25.00% - ERDE Bank; At 24 months - 14.30% - 26.00% annum, with 26.00% - Porto-Franco; At 36 months - 13.10% - 21.30% per annum, with 21.30% - Expobank. The most frequent such proposals: At 1 month - 21.00% per annum, representing 87.50 UAH per month - offer: Golden Gate KB, FOLKSBANK, ERDE Bank. At 3 months - 22.00% per annum, representing 91.67 UAH per month - offer: Boguslav, Contract, Kreditprombank, UPB. At 6 months - 23.00% per annum, representing 95.83 UAH per month -offer: Boguslav, Golden Gate KB, Kreditprombank. At 9 months - 22.50% per annum, representing 93.75 UAH per month - offer: East-European Bank , Khreschatik. At 12 months - 24.00% per annum, which is 100.00 UAH per month - offer: Boguslav, Eastern European Bank, Kreditprombank, UPB. At 18 months - 20.00% per annum, representing 83.33 UAH per month -- offer: Platinum Bank, Arcade, INDEX-BANK. At 24 months - 20.00% per annum, representing 83.33 UAH per month - offered: Arcade, INDEX-BANK. At 36 months - 13.10% per annum, representing 54.58 UAH monthly - offer: Forum. ; For input 1000,00 USD offers banks fluctuate in following ranges: At 1 month - 2.00% - 13.00% per annum, with 13.00% - Ukrgasbank; At 3 months - 5.50% - 14.00% per annum, with 14.00% - Ukrgasbank; At 6 months - 8.50% - 14.50% pa , with 14.50% - Ukrgasbank; At 9 months - 9.00% - 14.50% per annum, with 14.50% - Ukrgasbank; At 12 months - 9.50% - 15.50% per annum, with 15.50% - Eastern European Bank; At 18 months - 10.00% - 14.00% per annum, with 14.00% - Kreditprombank; At 24 months - 10.00% - 15.50% per annum, with 15.50% - Porto-Franco; At 36 months - 9.50% - 12.15% per annum, with 12.15% - Expobank. The most frequent such proposals: at 1 month - 9.50% per annum, which amounts to 7.92 USD per month - suggest: Golden Gate KB, UPB. At 3 months - 12.00% per annum, which amounts to 10.00 USD per month - offer: Boguslav, Eastern European Bank, Credit-Dnepr KF, First Investment Bank.
Yesterday, a pair of Euro /dollar rose in the U.S. session to 1.4100. Pound /dollar reached 1.6570. The pair dollar /yen has grown on the American session, with 80 points to 96.15. The experts noted that the statement made by Governor of the Bank of China that the Bank of China in respect of its gold reserves has followed a consistent policy, without any abrupt changes in the course contributed to the easing of the Japanese yen on a wide range of world currencies. This statement somewhat calmed investors, because the previous statements of Chinese officials about the need for a new world reserve currency has a negative impact on the dollar. Growth American stock indices helped to increase investor interest in the positions carry trade. Support for the cross-rates associated with the Japanese yen and the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Cross-pound /yen reached 159.28, which is 250 points higher than the daily minimum. Cross-rate euro /yen rose to 150 basis points up to 135.48. Australian dollar /U.S. dollar rose to 0.8095, which is 110 points higher than the daily minimum. Yesterday Dow Jones index of the New York Stock Exchange rose 71.72 points (0.85%). Nasdaq index rose 4.12 points (0.22%). SP 500 index rose 6.27 points (0.68%). Yesterday index Frankfurt stock exchange Xetra DAX rose 108.62 points (2.27%). The index of London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 rose 53.02 points (1.25%). The index of the Paris stock exchange CAC 40 rose 63.95 points (2.04%). Today in Asia remained the main driver market Japanese yen, which is significantly correlated with the dynamics of the stock market. The index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Nikkei-225 rose 179.03 points (1.83%). Index of the Hong Kong Hang Seng stock market is growing at138.79 points (0.75%). Singapore Straits Times Index appreciated by 18.95 points (0.82%). Today in Asia pair dollar /yen after the growth of up to 96.30 decreased to 95.90 support. Rate euro /yen dropped to 134.90 marks. Exchange EUR /USD rose on the Tokyo session to 1.4120. Pound /dollar traded near 1.6650 level. Also, the pressure on the dollar is providing an increase in oil prices and gold. The price of WTI crude oil in New York rose 1.42 dollars to 72.91 dollars per barrel. Mark Brent crude also grown up, breaking the mark from the bottom up 72.50 dollars per barrel. Gold continued its growth in Asia and by the end of the Tokyo session, the resistance has reached 941 dollars per troy ounce. Start the European session, has made adjustments to the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. Forex market is closely monitoring the dynamics of stock market and the emerging macroeconomic statistics.
Participants began the new trading week rather cautiously. Trading activity, according to the turnover on the MICEX (57.7 billion rubles.) Remains low. After a sensitive two-week correction parties are trying to find the contours of future games. However, the market looks in general quite stable. The reason for this behavior can be explained by the situation on the MICEX index indicator ISI-Comp (980.36 on), which expresses the level of breaking even on all trading positions open for the last 9 months, ie since the end of September last year. In fact, this level of market equilibrium: at theselevels, neither the bulls nor the bears have not yet arrived. The three-day consolidation index near that level - too much proof. So, in the coming days should be expected out of the consolidation. We are in continued growth. Russia Sovereign spread after the maximum on 23 June (4.418%) fell to 4.257%. At reassessment of Russian risk indicates the steady decrease in the value of CDS (5Y), which during the same period fell from 367.53 to 341.74. In addition, one of the technical factors of the growth supports the closing of short positions. During yesterday's session on the importance of the indicator OBV-5 (the net amount of the weekly trading positions on the MICEX index) declined by nearly half. After the break-even level of 20-day (1006.2) and 60-day (1017.6), the positions of the purchase may be amplified at the expense of restoring the positions of these categories of participants. Consequently, the breakdown of these levels for the idea to pass on the increased sales. Authorize and appreciate the story;; Your grade will be the first! Analyst Ratings
Possible scenarios of futures on RTS index in the near future: targets for futures on RTS index when it is falling: 1) Red upward slant line - 92 800 points in futures on RTS index. time achieving this goal: a. 1 - 2 trading days. targets for futures on RTS index, with growth: 2) The green downward slant line (short-term trend) - 101 000 points for the futures on RTS index. a. 1 - 3 trading days. 3) The blue horizontal line - 103 800 points for the futures on RTS index. a. 3 - 5 trading days. Recommendations for today: 1) buy in the area of 90 000 - 87 000 points. Stop - loss put at the level of 86 000 points. 2) buy in the area of 95 000 points. Stop - loss put at the level of 94 000 points. Evening session on FORTS, June 29, 2009: The volume of trades at night was at the secondary level. Futures on the RTS index showed a significant (for the evening auction) an increase of 2 000 points. The dollar again balom governs and determines the direction of movement of global markets. Still hopes for rapid growth to the recent highs due to continuing weakening of the U.S. currency against all world currencies. Today, expect a positive momentum. Authorize and appreciate the story;; Your grade will be the first! Analyst Ratings
Russian Gazprom hopes that Ukraine will receive credit for the injection of gas into underground gas storage (UGS) earlier than in September. As the UNIAN correspondent in Brussels, told reporters, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Gazprom, Alexander Medvedev. We have heard that before September, they (the international financial institutions) will not be able to, but September is a little late. Therefore, we hope that decision will be approved quickly, - he said. Deputy Chairman of Gazprom said that during the injection of gas in the UGS is from April to October and in November, usually, have already started the selection of gas from storage. But I think there is room (in Ukraine), so let's hope that everything will be fine, - said Medvedev. As UNIAN reported, took place in Brussels the European Commission with technical advice from representatives of international financial organizations, the European gas companies, as well as Ukraine and Russia regarding the solution to the issue of gas supplies in winter.