USD Summit of Eight passed without excesses. As expected, the finance ministers agreed on the need to develop strategies to stop the stimulation once the world economy back to sustainable growth.At the same time, they stated that it is too early to stop the current batch imposed anti-crisis measures worth 2 trillion. dollars. Thus, we can conclude that the heads of government are not so optimistic about the signs of stabilization in the global economy. However, given that no radical decisions were not made again, and the entire summit sotryasanie more like the air, he did not have little impact on currency markets. Regarding the closing of Friday trades, the dollar once again managed to warm their hands on the general collapse of hopes for the rapid economic recovery. The published data on the evening of consumer confidence in the United States showed that in June it had risen to 9-month maximum, but again was unable to surpass the level of September 2008 (69.0 from 68.7 in May). This is slightly lower than 69.5 expected by analysts. The fact that the indicator of the pace of recovery slowed, forcing us to worry that consumer spending growth will come not too soon. Given that the labor market continues to be an obstacle on the path to prosperity for the American people, it can safely be argued - as long as we see more clear signs of recovery in other sectors of the economy are unlikely to expect anything from the consumer. A separate report also showed that import prices in May reflected the third month of growth, which means that rising oil prices and the dollar falling dramatically reduce the risk of deflation. But against the backdrop of rising unemployment, which does not require increasing the salaries of employees, that's just fraught with economic shocks. At this week's reports on consumer prices and producer prices United States must show how the recent increase in import prices has affected the entire economy. Basically, the consumer inflation rate is composed of prices for housing, medical and other services that are more likely prices of domestic market. Internal factors such as unemployment and the gap between the volume of production in the economy and economic power tend to be the main drivers of inflation. Both these factors point to a slight upward pressure on prices, either in its absence. Today promises to be quite calm. EUR Number fans Euro diminished after Friday data. First, in May, annual inflation in consumer prices in France have continued to decline, reflecting the base effects of last year, when prices for crude oil and products increased significantly. Thus, the specter of deflation continues to wander through Europe. Then we learned that the French budget deficit rose to E28, 2 billion m /m to E71, 9 billion, about one third of annual growth deficit associated with an infusion of funds into the economy through its stimulation (E9, 7 billion), the rest was due mainly revenue deficit in the treasury (including - tax), which is related to the effects of recession.
At the end of last week's U.S. stock indexes finished the day in raznopolyarnyh fields near the zero mark. Not brighter prospects National Semiconductor have put pressure on the sector shares of technology companies. On the contrary, shares of health are enhanced. Investors are not confident in the further rise of the market and still prefer the safety of paper such as pharmaceuticals. Nevertheless, the SP 500 index managed to update his 7-month maximum. American Income gosobligatsy declined from peak of last week. This was a factor in strengthening the position of the dollar against other world currencies. Oil prices mark Brent for the last 3 days dropped by 2.7% to $ 70/barr. Today, after a neutral opening of Asian stock indices are better left in the crane area. U.S. futures indices are also moving down: SP -0,56%. The opening bid at the Russian exchange platforms on Monday, we see a moderate decline in the area of stock indexes. Given that the vast majority of our ADRs closed Friday at 0,5-1,5% below the local level, should wait for the losses in the MICEX index 1.5% in the first hour of bidding. Given that today revoked the ban on short selling FSFR, we can expect that the day of our stock market indices are likely to lose about 3%. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 2 users rated material at 4,5. Analyst Ratings
The second week the Russian market on the basis of the week showed minimal changes - less than 1% on the MICEX index, in contrast to last five days of strong trade movements were not. The market was in a channel width of about 4%. The level in the region of 1240 points - 50%-ing the level of correction of Fibonacci - we continue to believe a significant drag on the graph of index MICEX. The level of 1100 and the trend line indicate good support. It should be noted that any resistance (and support) is much easier to penetrate with the second or third times. U.S. SP 500 index had twoweeks worth of 200MA, and the English FTSE 100, however the latter is under its average is now almost 6 weeks. We continue to believe that it is likely that consolidation will continue the trend of formation. Signaled the failure of consolidation could be a breakdown of 200MA at increasing volumes. Quotations of oil per week added more than 5%. Remember that oil is in an upward trend, to play against which we do not see the point. At the level of $ 76-78bbl is 38%-ing the level of correction of Fibonacci, the attainment of which it is highly likely. In the market of major industrial metals, as we had anticipated an increase: the graph of copper - after leaving the top triangle (marked in yellow), and nickel on the schedule - after the passage 200MA top. Copper can be noted as a possible resistance level of $ 5830 per tonne - the level of 50%-term correction of Fibonacci. In the currency market, there was no serious movement, but the picture is complicated, perhaps, pointeresnee, than the other markets. The graph pair euro /dollar draw the picture, which resembles the figure of head-shoulders, which in the technical analysis is quite remarkable high probability of realization. To complete the figure will have to wait for a puncture-down through the neck (see chart), and then quite reasonably put to the decline in euro. The initial purpose of this reduction can be a level of 1.34. Gold situation is almost similar, but this figure is better seen at the 4-hour shift, it is lacerated and neck line has holes. The goal to reduce the level can be described 200MA, which is now at around $ 891 per ounce. Published data on the employment situation in the United States have changed our vision of the asset, and we believe a significant increase in gold in the short term, preferring to play accurate down to the short stop-loss. The market is still in the upward trend, and to its reduction of Perforation any can be considered as a correction. As we anticipated in the previous edition, after correction of growth was observed in the form of consolidation. This consolidation may well be a harbinger of a significant movement, and now has a rather convenient situation for trade solutions: there are clear levels of support and resistance for the index, with the passage of which is included in the position to be punctured. Also important that FSFR allowed brokers to offer clients the opportunity to open a short position in the stock market. Missing on shorts speculators are likely to try to force in the market. However, we recommend caution in the game for a fall: the market is very strong, and often the majority of market participants are wrong. In such a case may occur short squeeze - a situation where mass shortistov will buy the paper. Typically, when such a situation, the market is growing quite rapidly. MICEX Index Significant levels: support: 1100, 940, 870, 740, 600, 500, Resistance - 1240. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 8 users rated material at 4,6. Analyst Ratings
15.06.09 12:53 ; Â On the negative external background of the Russian market opens on Monday with «gepom» down, the MICEX index fell by 0.9%. By 12.30 Moscow time the MICEX index losing 3.33% at 1100.58 points. RTS Index at that time was 1087.09 points (-3.56%). On FORTS the September futures on the RTS index in «red» at 3.6% at 107,290 points. Most of «blue chips» traded in «red»: «Gazprom» is reduced by 3,43%, «LUKOIL» - on 4,45%. Ordinary shares «Sberbank» lost 5.04%. GMK «Norilsk Nickel» in «red» at 4.15%. At the European sites are bidding for «red zone». FTSE index is reduced by - 1.66% at 4368.2 item DAX index losing 2.06% at 4,964.83 point, the index CAC 40 - 3267.64 points (1.76%). By 12.30 Moscow time ADRs in the Russian equities in London (in dollars per share) as follows: LUKOIL -50.7, -108 NorNikel, Rosneft - 6.16, Rostelecom - 6.167, Gazprom - 5.68. Futures on the SP down to -1.1% and is at the level of 930.3 points. At the commodity markets is also plagued by negative sentiment. The July futures on oil brand Brent traded at around $ 71.148 a barrel, Light - $ 71.91 per barrel. As noted by Alexander shoes, head of analytical department of the IR Gallio Capital, with prices now represent the main intrigue of the market.