the June makrostatistika suggests the appearance of the first green shoots, or green sprout in the Russian economy, so the Bank of Moscow analysts assess the socio-economic development of Russia for January-June 2009, published on Monday Rosstat. Experts see signs of improvement in the stabilization of rail transport (in June falling to 12.3% compared with May - 19%) as well as the renewal of selected industries (electricity generation, metallurgy, cement and coal industries). key macroeconomic% year to year ; January. Feb. Mar. April. May Jun Jan-June Industry -16.0 -13.2 -13.7 -- 16.9 -17.1 -12.1 -18.8 Retail 4.4 -1.4 -3.0 -4.5 -5.6 -6.5 -3.0 Construction -16.8 -20.7 -20.2 -16.3 -21.9 -19.6 -19.3 Housing -4.0 7.4 4.2 10.9 3.2 -13.0 -0.3 Agriculture 2.6 2.2 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.9 The freight railway transport -32.2 -27.6 -21.0 -21.2 -19.0 -12.3 -21.1 Investment -15.5 -14.1 -15.4 -16.2 -23.1 -20.1 -18.2 Real distribution. income -7.8 2.3 3.4 1.4 0.3 -1.0 0.0 Nominal wage 15.5 11.1 11.9 8.3 7.5 6.1 9.9 real wages 1.9 -2.4 -1.8 -4.3 -- 4.3 -5.2 -2.8 Unemployment,% 8.6 9.4 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.3 Source: Rosstat The June statistics as a whole was also better than analysts' expectations NB Trust. Chief economist Yevgeny Nadorshin bank notes, in particular, the good pace of construction in June of 2009 - an increase of 21.9% by May 2009, that even surpasses the similar indicator of last year (June 2008 to May 2008 - 18,4 %). Analysts believe the Bank of Moscow, that even the situation in the labor market was not as dramatic. In turn, Evgeny Nadorshin noted that the relatively stable real disposable income (-1% compared to June 2008), with a significant decline in wages (by 5.2%) indicate that money from customers no longer becomes. In autumn the situation of unemployment, in his opinion, might deteriorate, and then decline in purchasing power would aggravate the already strong decline in retail sales (in June a decrease of 6.5% year-to-year), an expert warns. Further deterioration in trade performance and looks forward to leading economist Renaissance Capital Elena Sharipova. The Bank of Moscow, by contrast, believe that in the III quarter of 2009 will be the stabilization of consumer demand, and in the IV quarter and is to begin its growth. Consumer demand continues to decline while, but seems to be close to the bottom of the cycle - analysts believe. - As we approach the levels of 2007, the pace of decline slowed. Concern to the analysts of Bank of Moscow is only the dynamics of investment. The low investment activity, according to experts, is now the most serious risk to the Russian economy. It is unlikely that the situation with investment corrected in the second half, they believe. Investing for a long time to show decline, agrees Elena Sharipova. However, many experts expect some improvement in the economic situation in Russia as a whole in the current quarter. Given the low level of loaded capacity, recovery may be even more rapid than projected LED (growth of GDP in III quarter at 1.8% as compared to II quarter) - believe in the Bank of Moscow. - But this should remain a favorable external environment, which still inspires cautious optimism. Pending slow decline of basic sectors of Russian economy and Elena Sharipova. On some growth now, you can hardly speak, but we have reached the bottom and there is still - she said. The expert believes that the outcome of III quarter of 2009, the rate of decline of industry slowed to -10% against the same period last year, while GDP - up to -8% (period I was a little more than half -10%). If July does not bring improvement, but deterioration of macroeconomic indicators, the analysts NB Trust, it will happen for at least a moderate pace through June of stabilization. However, some experts estimate more pessimistic in June makrostatistiku. For example, an analyst FK Opening Olga Naidenova believes that in June over Russia's economy probably thicken the clouds than there were some signs of improvement. A further deterioration in prospects for economic recovery, according to her, showed a serious drop in investment and consumption. In such circumstances, support the recovery of GDP may have only the completion of the reduction of stocks in warehouses, the continued decline in imports and increases in government consumption, - the analyst said. - That is why our forecast the dynamics of GDP for 2009 (-6%) begins to seem somewhat optimistic. It should be noted that the Ministry is already projecting a more severe economic decline of Russia on the basis of the current year - on 8,5%. Not prone to excessive optimism and analyst IK Energocapital Alexander Ignatiuk, which is a supporter of W-shaped scenario development crisis. In his opinion, even if now and there are some improvements, they are probably due to seasonal factors. What is happening now - only a small pause, which is linked to some improvements in the oil market, - said the expert. - This is a small jumper between the two V. We look forward to another deep failure in promproizvosdtve and the whole macroeconomics in the second half of 2010. Top events affecting Russian market Event Rating; Forecast MACROECONOMICS overall situation in world stock markets C The macroeconomic situation in the USA D Macroeconomic situation in Russia B POLICY D. Medvedev approved the postponement of the introduction to the State Duma a draft budget-2010 D  COMMODITY MARKETS level of world oil prices C level of world prices for metals C SECTORAL AND CORPORATE NEWS Revenues INTER RAO UES on the basis of 2008 under IFRS grew by 31% P  Gazprom in the first half of 2009 reduced the supply of gas to Europe more than 30%  C VTB approved the additional issue of securities the bank C  NOTE: most powerful influence on the market have an event with A-rated events with top D on our scale, have little influence. Sections Macroeconomics and commodity markets in column 2 in the brackets can be specified rating the previous day. Arrow down in the column 3 points to the likely negative impact on the market, the arrow up - the positive /neutral. Investment background - moderately positive
At what point in this time stumble market? seventh consecutive session on the Russian market is taking place byche rally. External background actively supports the optimism of market participants throughout the session. After the opening of a neutral and insignificant negative, which we saw at the beginning of the trading day, quotes rvanuli up. MICEX Index did not stop even the psychologically significant 1,000 points mark, which is not surprising, given the overcoming of $ 67 per barrel mark for oil futures and Brent futures marked 950 points on the SP 500 index. Bullish mood of the market is due to positive reports, which is saturated with the current day. Results of the activities of reporting companies once again surpassed most expectations, that provokes the purchase. Added to the indices of the U.S. futures indicate a possible continuation of growth and at the American sites that are actively otygryvaetsya members of the Russian market. In addition, growth may be associated with the advent of non-residents in domestic assets. Until the end of the trading session, the course could be modified speech in the House of Representatives United States Chapter B. Bernanke Fed report on monetary policy. Interest are the possible applications for the future level of base rate, which currently amounts to 0 - 0.25%. The latest data as to production, and on consumer inflation expectations were higher, which could lead to higher rates. A statement on plans to raise the refinancing rate could adversely affect the dynamics of the stock market and lead to a fixed profit. If, during the presentation will be announced on the stability of policy rates, bulls will continue the rise of stock markets in emerging driver of growth. Also, tomorrow at the opening will be otygryvatsya reports, publication of which will be held after the end of the trading day on the American market. In particular, interest are records of such companies as Apple and Yahoo!. current growth, I recommend to fix, since the emergence of a negative reason could lead the market sharply down from heights reached. The risks of changing attitudes are increasing with each passing day, due to technical factors - the desire of market participants to record profits. From the technical point of view, the ruble rose to an important indicator of the level - the July peak, which has remained steadfast. Closing above the level of 1013 points would be positively received by market participants. Today, demand shares of oil and gas, due to rising oil prices. Shares of Gazprom, opened near the level of support for 155 rubles., Rushed toward 165 EUR. Demand for the paper company is supported by non-resident demand for ADR, which added more than 3.5%. Better the market shares are traded and Surgutneftegaz in which otygryvaetsya reset duties on crude oil produced in the East Siberian field. Shares of Sberbank seriously increased in the mid-session while increasing the volume that is likely to be associated with the arrival of major investors. Paper bank opened above the lateral canal, which traded in the past five sessions. On the background of general optimism shares tested mark 40 rub., Which was subdued at the entrance of a major investor. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 1 users rated material 4. Analyst Ratings
index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Ksetra Daks (Xetra DAX) has grown by 52.87 points (1.05%) and is at the level of 5083.02. The index of London Stock Exchange Futsi 100 (FTSE 100) rose by 32.23 points (0.73%) and is at the level of 4475.85. The index of the Paris Stock Exchange BuyThisBook 40 (CAC 40) rose by 27.31 points (0.83%) and is at the level of 3298.25. September futures on the index S & P 500 (SP 500) at Globekse (Globex) dropped 1.0 point at 948.0. Opening of the American stock index today is expected to bottom. Exchange Euro /pound rose in the European session on 60 points up to 0.8662. Dealers noted that under conditions of rather low activity was due to move a large order to sell pounds. Pound /dollar has dropped by 100 points to a mark 1.6398.
21.07.09 condition at 14:00 the Kiev Banks and Items of currency exchange (PAE) is most often buy 1 USD at the price of 7.8400 UAH, that expensive at 4.00 cop. than yesterday and offered at a price of 7.8700 UAH, that is cheaper at 3.00 kopecks. of the Bank and the Stand for purchase 1 USD fluctuate within 7.7000 - 7.8401 UAH. Best Offers to buy 1 USD at this time set in the following banks and Stand: 7.8401 UAH - Eurobank;; 7.8400 UAH - BG Bank;; Prime Bank;; Synthesis ;; YUZHKOMBANK CA;; Unexbank;; Internet;; Margin;; Nika;; of the Bank and Stand for sale 1 USD fluctuate within 7.8500 - 7.9300 UAH. best selling 1 USD at this time set in the following banks and Stand: 7.8500 UAH - Unexbank CAUX number 1;; Arsenal;; 7.8600 UAH - Credit-Dnepr KF;; People's Capital;; Synthesis;; ; Today Banks Stand and most often buy 1 EUR for the price of 11.0000 UAH, that is different from yesterday's rate and the offer at a price of 11.2000 UAH, which is cheaper at 5.00 kopecks. of the Bank and the Stand for the purchase of 1 EUR fluctuate in 10.8800 - 11.1250 UAH. Best Offers to buy 1 EUR at this time set in the following banks and Stand: 11.1250 UAH - Inter;; 11.1200 UAH - YUZHKOMBANK CA;; Artada;, Nick; ; of the Bank and Stand for sale 1 EUR vary in 11.1400 - 11.3900 UAH.
Lukoil trend Short Term Medium-Term Long-Term neutral neutral lowering The level of support 1430 - 1450 1210 - 1340 1020 - 1190 level of resistance 1520 - 1540 1550 - 1620 1660 - 1950 Recommendations Bring brake application to market prices. Notes ; Norilsk Nickel trend Short Term Medium-Term Long-Term neutral neutral lowering The level of support 2830 - 2910 2210 - 2570 1640 - 1910 level of resistance 3180 - 3260 3320 - 3680 3550 - 4320 Recommendations Bring brake application to market prices. Notes ; Rostelekom trend Short Term Medium-Term Long-Term neutral lowering neutral The level of support 155.00 - 157.80 147.30 - 153.60 85.20 - 116.60 level of resistance 164.60 - 168.50 167.10 - 173.30 230.00 - 302.00 Recommendations Bring brake application to market prices. Notes ; Gazprom trend Short Term Medium-Term Long-Term neutral neutral lowering The level of support 149.00 - 151.80 122.60 - 137.70 110.40 - 130.50 level of resistance 162.70 - 165.30 168.80 - 184.00 183.40 - 216.00 Recommendations Bring brake application to market prices. Notes ; Mosenergo trend Short Term Medium-Term Long-Term neutral neutral lowering The level of support 1.480 - 1.510 1.150 - 1.330 0.960 - 1.060 level of resistance 1.640 - 1.680 1.730 - 1.920 2.170 - 2.390 Recommendations Bring brake application to market prices. Notes ; Surgutneftegas trend Short Term Medium-Term Long-Term neutral neutral lowering The level of support 20.50 - 21.00 17.70 - 19.80 14.60 - 17.30 level of resistance 22.70 - 23.00 24.00 - 26.00 28.70 - 30.70 Recommendations Bring brake application to market prices. Notes ; Savings Bank trend Short Term Medium-Term Long-Term neutral neutral lowering The level of support 37.10 - 37.90 30.40 - 34.20 17.00 - 24.30 level of resistance 40.70 - 41.30 42.20 - 46.00 53.00 - 68.00 Recommendations Bring brake application to market prices. Notes ; ; ; Authorize and appreciate the story;; Your grade will be the first! Analyst Ratings
Today takes place in quiet mode: RTS index reached 978.39 points (0.66%), the MICEX index adds 1.30% and the index MMVB10 growing at 1.00%. Leaders of growth are the shares of oil and gas sector. Expensive oil is good for the stock quotes of the sector, the growth is from 1% to 3%. After months of correction, the index of the PCT in June lost a little less than 32%, again appeared on the market, buyers. In addition, provide support to our market prices. Contrary to most analysts believe that oil will fall to the area of $ 40, prices are kept at around $ 60 and is currently traded at $ 66 a barrel. Industrial metals, since the beginning of the year, showing steady growth. Because the RTS index by 70% of the companies targeted so the extraction and sale of raw materials, the behavior of the market will depend on the price of this raw material and the further conduct of the dollar. Closing U.S. sites, DJ index went up by 1.20%, had a positive influence on the opening of Asian markets. However, by the end of the day, the number of optimists has decreased, and the bidding ended raznonapravleno. Japanese index (NIKKEY) grew by 2.73%, the index of Hong Kong (Hang Seng) has lost 0,003%, Chinese index (Shanghai Composite) dropped in price on 1,64% and the Korean Index (KOSPI) rose 0.70%. In May and June was marked by a sharp increase in investor interest in companies small and medium capitalization. And the end of the first half of the RTS-2 index is fully compensated for the backlog of RTAs in the beginning of the year. Over the past week index of second-line (RTS-2) added more than 3.74%. In this commentary I wish to draw the attention of investors for shares Nizhegorodoblgaz. Despite the relatively small discount of current market quotations for the estimated Rosimuschestva (32% of the calculation of the best offer price), draw attention to the abnormally low market valuation of the company. Currently, the rate of the best offer price, the capitalization Nizhegorodoblgaz is $ 42 million, only slightly higher than the net cash on the balance sheet of the company at the end of I quarter. 2009 ($ 36 million). In doing so, only for the I quarter 2009 the company received $ 15 million net profit. The growth potential of 260% Authorize and appreciate the story;; Your grade will be the first! Analyst Ratings
The sixth day in a number of the Russian stock exchange opened increases. This contributed to a positive external background. Thus, the leading American indexes have shown growth of more than one percent - Dow Jones closed at 8848.15 points mark, a broad index profile SP 500, breaking the psychological mark 950 points, closed at the mark of 951.13 points. Oil weeks after his fall at the beginning of the month and consolidation in the 60-61 dollar Breaks down its trend and traded at a level close to 65 dollars a barrel. At this time, the local resistance to the black gold is the level of 67 dollars, which is breaking our market is likely to take the height of 1000 points on the RTS index. After fixing a small profit in the first hour of the trading demand for blue chips to resume. Now among the leaders of the growth of paper Gazprom JSC (1.71%), AO Lukoil (2.77%), MMC Nornikelya AB (2.99%) and Surgutneftegaz JSC (2.84%). Outsiders are the shares of Polyus Gold SA (-1.05%) and JSC FGC UES, which traded near zero. K shares, which in the medium term has not yet shown clear trends can be attributed RusGidro Paper JSC, JSC FGC UES and AO Uralkali. They formed a narrow range, which can break at any moment and the rush for shares of the current market leaders. Turning to schedule RTS index, we see that at the end of last week was perelomlen descending trend emerged in late May and early June. At this point, short-term rebound is already moved in an attempt to medium-term growth. The point of this rebound is likely to set the resistance levels of 987 points and the psychological level of 1000 points, breaking that with high probability we can say that we are awaiting another wave of growth, which will display above the market highs of the year. But we must realize that growth is not without a correction, and likelihood of it increases with each growing day. The more aggressive we grow, the greater will be a correction. Investors focused on the medium of motion, can be recommended to open long positions on the foot at the level of 900 points on the RTS index. Authorize and appreciate the story;; Your grade will be the first! Analyst Ratings
These macro-and microeconomics, available on the market on Monday, continued to be favorable to the bulls segment on the highly risky nature of the assets. The June index of leading indicators United States, according to yesterday's data, rose by 0.7% (m /m) against the expected, on average, professional growth of this indicator in 0.5% and the increase of 1,2% (m /m ) in the previous month. EPS data for the II quarter TG the vast majority of American companies once again have a positive average market forecasts. Against this background, the traditional for the last decade, a positive correlation with the price trend risky investment rate EUR /USD continued to increase, and with the opening of the European session on Tuesday was around 1.4200 marks. Despite the medium-term risks associated with the situation in the field of European finance, in general, said the trend of the currency pair in terms of short-term is stable, although in the short term the market may still be witnessed increasing technical correction quotations USD for International FX. Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket today by 11:00 Moscow time was 31.18 and 37.04 rubles. against, respectively, 31.26 and 37.47 rubles. Monday morning at the auction. Technical factors in the short term could lead to devaluation of the Russian currency on the international market. However, in terms of weeks for quotations in the global FX ruble to continue to be submitted during a particular exchange rate stabilization. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 1 users rated material 4. Analyst Ratings
21.07.09 condition at 10:00 the Kiev Banks and Items of currency exchange (PAE) is most often buy 1 USD at the price of 7.8000 UAH, that is different from yesterday's rate and the offer at a price of 7.8500 UAH, that is cheaper at 5.00 cop. of the Bank and the Stand for purchase 1 USD fluctuate within 7.7000 - 7.8100 UAH. Best Offers to buy 1 USD at this time set in the following banks and Stand: 7.8100 UAH - Diamantbank;; Golden Gate KB;; Legbank;; Poltava-Bank KB;; Trust Capital;; YUZHKOMBANK CA;; Unexbank;; Absolut;; Arsenal;; Artada;; Nika;; 7.8000 UAH - Akkordbank;; Aktiv-Bank;; Business Standard;; Boguslav;; Eurobank;; KREDITVEST;; Prime Bank;; Prominvestbank;; Unexbank CAUX number 1;; Altair groups;; EURO;; Margin;; Скринька-2005 number 9;; of the Bank and Stand for sale 1 USD fluctuate within 7.8500 - 7.9300 UAH. best selling 1 USD at this time set in the following banks and Stand: 7.8500 UAH - Aktiv-Bank;; Boguslav;; Diamantbank;; Golden Gate KB;; Poltava - Bank KB;; Trust Capital;; YUZHKOMBANK CA;; Unexbank;; Unexbank CAUX number 1;; Altair groups;; Arsenal;; Artada;; EURO;; Margin;; Nika;; 7.8600 UAH - Eurobank; ; Ipobank;; KREDITVEST;; Credit-Dnepr KF;; Legbank;; Absolut;; Скринька-2005 number 9;; ; Today Banks Stand and most often buy 1 EUR for the price of 11.0000 UAH, that is different from yesterday's rate and the offer at a price of 11.2000 UAH, which is cheaper at 5.00 kopecks.
We are looking forward to the assault of the key marks on the stock indexes. While he did not take place, it is better to maintain caution During yesterday's trading session, the index S P500 did not have all 5 points in order to rewrite the records of the year. Nevertheless, the conclusion of the day rising American stock market was more than 1% - clearly a positive signal for the opening of tenders in Russia. Oil, though a few passed the position this morning, however, continues to hold near $ 66 mark per barrel of Brent. futures America declining by 0.3%, but the quotes ADRs of Russian companies at 2% above the closing price on the MICEX. Finding stock indicators, both domestic and foreign, in the vicinity of their maxima on the one hand gives investors hope for their continuation of Perforation and rally. However, until the final assault of the key marks did not happen, it makes sense to maintain caution and record profits the last days. And only if successfully overcome previous highs again to enter the market. We are now at a crossroads, and current levels may be equally good both for the opening of long, and for the new shorts. We hope that in the next day or two, we can determine the direction of further movement. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 1 users rated material at 2. Analyst Ratings