The beginning of this week marked another increase in oil quotes to a level of 71 dollars per barrel, so the Russian market, despite the desire of some players to record profit growth reopened. It will be important to overcome the mark of 1050-1060 points on the MICEX index. Ideas for the correction there, is only the desire of some players to close long positions when the growth from 13 July to date, 20% of the MICEX index. While this correction did not refresh the mood of any meaningful idea (bad macro-economic data in the United States, Europe, the decline in commodity markets), the serious reduction may not take place. The data on sales in the primary market of housing in the United States for June stoned records for the last 8 years - the growth has increased just 11%. All of this - low rates on mortgages and attractive price levels have led to such positive results, even in spite of the continuing rise in unemployment. In the week to continue a news background in the reporting season in the United States. However, you will have no mass reports of large companies, as in the previous two weeks. It may be noted reports of major U.S. oil companies (Chevron, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhilips), as well as the results of Motorola. Oil companies are likely to show good results for the 2 quarter of 2009, as conditions in the oil market has been extremely positive. The results of Motorola, by contrast, can be quite negative, as the company loses the last few years, competition in the market. The main macro-economic event this week will be published on Friday, the first estimates of GDP for the United States 2 quarter of 2009. It was expected that after the fall of more than 5% in the 4 th quarter of 2008, and 1 quarter of 2009, the fall of the American economy slowed to 1.5%. The reduction of stocks, slower decline of industrial production, the revival of sales in the real estate market - major factors that contributed to slow the decline. In doing so, even 1,5-2 months ago, the consensus forecast was at the fall of more than 2%, but the macroeconomic indicators and the outcomes of the major companies have contributed to the revision of the rate of reduction in the American economy. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 6 users rated material at 3,3. Analyst Ratings
Futures on the RTS index (RIU9): despite the fact that on Friday, crude oil broke the $ 70 mark and pick up to its annual maximum, we are not seeing the same optimism in the Russian market. All attempts to grow strongly and catch up finish very modest growth. This is not surprising. Despite the positive dynamics of commodity markets on the background of optimistic statements by several analysts, few believe that prices will be long held in its maximum value since the beginning of the year. Futures on the RTS index (RIU9) in the morning was in contango in 1500. The last time such a situation occurs when the June futures on the RTS index reached its yearly maximum - in early June 2009. To date, the situation has changed - re-entered the futures bekvordatsiyu (-700) points. Figure 1. RTS. Bazis within days. The number of open positions now stands at 368, 000. Before the market growth was accompanied by a marked increase in open positions at each spiral growth. Now that the dynamics are not observed (Fig. 2). Figure 2. RTS. Open positions within days. In the medium term, the market remains in the descending trend. Bear trend, which began in July 2008 remains valid. In my opinion, everything that we have seen - just a rebound. Many market participants believe that the bottom and covered in the market an upward channel. And every day these optimists is becoming more and more. Last week, Deputy Minister of Economic Development A. Klepach overturned a second wave of the crisis, which has awaited the fall of 2009, and moved her at the beginning of 2010. The reason for this was the GDP growth at 0.1% in June compared to May of this year, which was perceived as a turn, though, after 9.6% case falling year on year as compared to June 2008, this growth seems likely rebound than turn. With regard to allegations that crisis measures to help overcome the economic downturn, it should be noted that from the moment of their adoption to the time of execution is held too long, and sometimes they lose their relevance. The economic situation is changing rapidly, and the decisions are executed slowly. In such a situation is unlikely to avoid a second wave of the crisis, but it will affect the stock market rather slow slide from intermittent rebound, rather than sharp decline and the equally sharp rebound. Volatility September putov outside money equal to the volatility of September call out of money. Thus, at the current market we have seen a volatility smile, which indicates that market participants expect equiprobable as market growth, and fall (Fig. 3). This volatility of the central Ñтрайка approaching pre-crisis levels 50% (Fig. 4). Fig 3. RTS. Exchange IV within days. Fig. 4. Volatility central Ñтрайка (day). If you talk about the number of open positions, the maximum number of remains RI90000U9 (put max, Fig. 5) and RI100000I9 (call max, Fig. 5) Ñтрайках, the absolute values for these Ñтрайках do not focus on these levels as at full form. Figure 5. Levels optional support /resistance. The most likely scenario: the resumption of the downward motion of Perforation of 100 and 000 traffic to the area of 70 000. Least likely scenario: the annual updating of the maximum. I recommend tobuy tie-up with Ñтрайком the money (100 000) on the futures on the RTS index of execution in September. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 5 users rated material at 3. Analyst Ratings
Training the world's major currencies in the Asian auctions on Monday have remained virtually unchanged, as investors are not in a hurry to conclude deals in anticipation of the publication of data on the growth of American economy, to follow developments in stock markets. On Sunday, the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke said that the unemployment rate in the United States will be high, even after over the next few months in the U.S. economy will end the recession. According to the President of the Central Bank, to maintain the unemployment rate unchanged want economic growth at about 2.5 percent. Data on U.S. GDP will be on Friday. According to analysts, the U.S. economy in April-June quarter dropped a fourth row. Such a prolonged recession has not been observed in the history of statistics, ongoing since 1947.
At 15:01 Moscow time the MICEX index rising to 2.72%, is at the level of district 1054.85. The largest increase occurs in the oil and gas and financial sectors (2,7%each), less than the other growing telecommunications sector (1.9%). Index of large capitalization rising to 2.74%, average - on 1,93%, while small capitalization - at 2.5%. The Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia predicts a reduction in the current year by one-half the volume of investments in the steel industry to 100mlrd.r. Assistant to the President of Russia A. Dvorkovich said that the share of overdue loans in the credit portfolios of Russian banks will not exceed 15%. Office of the Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Moscow area brought the case on violation of antimonopoly legislation in respect Ltd Danone Industry , OJSC Wimm-Bill-Dann , LLC Herman , LLC Campina on suspicion of concerted actions aimed at reducing procurement prices for milk, since the company's purchase and recycle 90% of milk in the Moscow region. OJSC UAZ received by RSA in the 2 nd quarter of current year net loss of $ 34.4 mlrd.r. The September crude oil futures traded on NYMEX, rising to 0.88%, trading near 68.65 U.S. $ /barrel. September futures for the SP 500 index, traded on the CME, in the black at 0.43% and traded at 982doll. By the end of today's trading session is likely to attempt to continue the growth. MICEX index may reach the range of 1065-1080r. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 1 users rated material at 2. Analyst Ratings
Finally, the justice: in today's morning bivalyutnoy basket price fell to 36.65 rubles (-45 cents, compared with Thursday). Given that the Brent barrel mark on Monday went to 70 dollars, this is nothing unusual. In contrast, surprisingly, that last week the ruble stubbornly resisted the rise in oil prices. Bidding overnight on Friday remained at 6-7%. However, the tax period comes to an end, so it's likely that soon the cost of short-ruble liquidity may even decrease. At the debt market continues to grow the most liquid bond quotations of 1-st and 2 nd levels, but we noticed that on Friday, many market participants have already begun to put more Ofer with a desire to record profits after a recent rally. Whatever the case, for example, issues of VTB-5 (YTP 12.44%), VTB-6 (YTP 12.56%), Sistema-1 (YTP 13.02%), MosOblast-8 (YTM 17.80%) added to the price of the order of 20 -30bp. Friday closed book for the production of MTS-5 to 15 billion rubles: the demand exceeded the offer 3 times (!), and the coupon rate was set at 14.25% for the 3-year offer. In our view, investors do not actually receive any prize, so the growth potential of the quotes issue, we believe, is very limited. In Bond Market can be found information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned deployment, the outcome of trades on the MICEX and read the comments on the bond market. Authorize and appreciate the story;; Your grade will be the first! Analyst Ratings
It has been quite a significant impetus to correct the general fall in the markets, but the game is not finished yet and has not determined the overall direction. Prices are about the levels of resistance, I think that in the coming weeks will be a slowdown in purchasing activity, perhaps, the price for some issuers will show a sizeable decline. Wait for a serious traffic down in the near future is not necessary, although it now accumulated more compelling reason than to continue the growth. In the current situation, think it's right to put a stop-close orders, they are seen at 60min schedules, the MICEX index of about 980 points. As mentioned last time, so now I repeat: do not believe in the sustainability of current growth, it is more like an emotional foam. By the way, and the recognition of overseas analysts made during the past three days to confirm these words. As they recognized that all the figures on deliberately understated, but when left on all the parameters, of course, they also were above expectations, which triggered a wave of extreme growth. Well, look how it ended, and at what levels. Stop orders are exhibited, the profit is protected, you can easily keep abreast of developments. The market itself determines that it is better to believe and more. RTS, a day - a signal to buy from 23 July 2009. MICEX Index, a daily - a signal to buy from 23 July 2009. Gazprom, a day - a signal to buy from 23 July 2009. GMKNorNikel, day - the signal to buy from 20 July 2009. Lukoil, a day - a signal to buy from 20 July 2009. Rosneft day - a signal to buy from 21 July 2009. Sberbank on, full-time - a signal to buy from July 23, 2009. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 3 users rated material at 3,3. Analyst Ratings
USD Despite the last day working week, Europe has provided interesting data, which could dilute the calm enveloped the markets. The U.S. went on to decline almost all opponents (except the British pound, which suffered from fundamental data), but traffic is still difficult to mention impressive - the currency continued to fluctuate within narrow ranges. What the economic picture, on Friday, we received only one report from the United States - consumer confidence. As the results of a joint study Reuters and the University of Michigan, in July, American consumer confidence fell for the first time in 5 months, as rising unemployment and low wages frustrated population. As a result, the index of consumer sentiment fell from 70.8 to 66 (which, incidentally, turned out better than the projection 65). For comparison, the growth period, which lasted from late 2001 to December 2007, the average index was 89.2. Thus, we understand that the U.S. population is still not ready to fully believe in the theory of green shoots, the more that it is not itself confirms it. Now we have to wait and hope for the current week - perhaps the abundance of economic events is still able to contribute to the dynamics of exchange. Of the United States planned to be released on the labor market indicators, consumer confidence, orders for durable goods, the report Beige Book and GDP for the second quarter. Of course, the last one listed will be a key event of the week, however, given that it falls on a Friday, we can assume that during the week, players will ostorozhnichat and prepare their positions for the release. Today's report on sales in the primary housing market is not of great interest, because we really understand that the bottom of the sector has not yet been reached. We have seen small signs of strengthening in the record on vtorichke, which is of leading indicators. Now we just need to get several months of impressive sales growth in both sectors to seriously start talking about the bright future. EUR more positive data than expected, helped podrasti euro against the dollar. Despite the fact that consumer confidence in France has proved worse than the projections, all subsequent releases appealed to the optimism. The index of business sentiment in Germany continued to July 4 th month of growth, and this suggests that the European economy is beginning to recover from the worst recession since the Second World War. Ifo business climate index rose to 87.3 from 85.9 in June. In addition, a separate report showed that in July the rate of contraction slowed E-16 is stronger than predicted. The preliminary composite index of business activity in the euro zone rose to a 10-month maximum of 46.8 against 44.6 in June, surpassing the average forecast of 45.3.
27.07.2009 at 10:30 am in the market for deposits of individuals was recorded as follows. For input 5000,00 UAH offers banks fluctuate in following ranges: At 1 month - 3.00% - 23.00% per annum, with 23.00% - Ukrgasbank; At 3 months - 10.25% - 24.00% per annum, with 24.00% - Active-Bank, Delta Bank; On 6 months - 12.25% - 24.50% per annum, with 24.50% - Delta Bank, Bank ERDE; At 9 months - 12.50% - 25.00% per annum, with 25.00% - Delta Bank; At 12 months -- 15.00% - 25.50% perannum, with 25.50% - Delta Bank; At 18 months - 15.25% - 25.00% per annum, with 25.00% - ERDE Bank; At 24 months - 14.30% - 26.00% pa , with 26.00% - Porto-Franco; At 36 months - 13.10% - 21.30% per annum, with 21.30% - Expobank. The most frequent such proposals: At 1 month - 21.00% per annum, representing 87.50 UAH per month - offer: Golden Gate KB, International Investment Bank, FOLKSBANK, ERDE Bank. At 3 months - 22.00% per annum, representing 91.67 UAH per month - offer: Boguslav, Contract, Kreditprombank First Investment Bank, UPB. At 6 months - 22.00% per annum, representing 91.67 UAH per month - offer: Diamantbank, Credit-Dnepr KF, Khreshchatyk, International Investment Bank. At 9 months - 23.00% per annum, representing 95.83 UAH per month - offer: Golden Gate KB, Contract, UkrGasBank. At 12 months - 23.00% per annum, representing 95.83 UAH per month - offer: Diamantbank, Contract, Credit-Dnepr KF, Kreshchatik Ukrgasbank. At 18 months - 20.00% per annum, representing 83.33 UAH per month - offers: Platinum Bank, Arcade. At 24 months - 14.30% per annum, representing 59.58 UAH per month - offer: Forum. At 36 months -- 13.10% per annum, representing 54.58 UAH per month - offer: Forum. ; For input 1000,00 USD offers banks fluctuate in following bands: at 1 month - 3.50% - 14.00% per annum, with 14.00% - Ukrgasbank; At 3 months - 6.75% - 14.00% per annum, with 14.00% - Ukrgasbank; At 6 months - 8.50% - 14.00% per annum, with 14.00% - Active-Bank, Delta Bank, UGB; At 9 months - 9.00% - 14.25% per annum, with 14.25% - Delta Bank; At 12 months - 9.50% - 15.50% per annum, with 15.50% - Eastern European Bank; At 18 months - 10.00% - 14.00% per annum, with 14.00% - Kreditprombank; At 24 months - 10.00% - 15.50 % per annum, with 15.50% - Porto-Franco; At 36 months - 9.50% - 12.15% per annum, with 12.15% - Expobank. The most frequent such proposals: On 1 month - 9.50% per annum, which amounts to 7.92 USD per month - offer: Golden Gate KB, UPB. At 3 months - 13.00% per annum, which amounts to 10.83 USD per month - offer: A contract Kreditprombank, Kreshchatik UPB.
Futures on the RTS index closed higher asset base On Friday, the market has demonstrated the urgency growth. Futures on the RTS added 5.6% and for the first timesince June 10, closed in a state of contango (2 points). This indicates the return of positive sentiment in the market. The number of open positions in all liquid Futures fell as profits at the expense of fixing the players, and at the expense of a nervous closing short positions. The contracts on RTS open interest fell by 7.2%. In the options on the RTS bidders built up positions in put options on the levels of 900-950 points. The implicit volatility has shown a tendency to increase at these levels. Gazprom contracts traded slightly weaker than the market, adding 2.7%. Deterrent effect on the quotes provided on the proposal of the Ministry of Finance raise export duties on gas. The number of open positions in Futures Gazprom fell by 3.3%. In Gazprom's options can be seen building positions in the levels of 170 and 200 rubles. On Monday at 18:00 Moscow time goes on sales of new homes in the United States. The consensus forecast of analysts are at the level of 350 000. Given the positive market reaction to data on housing market in the United States last week, new statistics can also provide support to markets. Before the opening of tenders in Russia, Asian area showing growth, adding 0,9-1,6%. Futures on the S P500 grown up 0.5%. Contact us at WTI rose to the top of the July, adding 1%, and traded at $ 68.8 per barrel. Authorize and appreciate the story;; Your grade will be the first! Analyst Ratings
27.07.09 condition at 10:00 the Kiev Banks and Items of currency exchange (PAE) is most often buy 1 USD at the price of 7.9000 UAH, that is different from yesterday's rate and the offer at a price of 7.9600 UAH, that expensive at 0.50 cop. of the Bank and the Stand for purchase 1 USD fluctuate within 7.8000 - 7.9200 UAH. Best Offers to buy 1 USD at this time set in the following banks and Stand: 7.9200 UAH - Financial Initiative;; YUZHKOMBANK CA;; Arsenal;, Nick;; Скринька 2005; ; 7.9150 UAH - Скринька 2005 number 9;; of the Bank and Stand for sale 1 USD fluctuate within 7.9600 - 8.0300 UAH. best selling 1 USD at this time set in the following banks and Stand: 7.9600 UAH - Aktiv-Bank;; Synthesis;; Unexbank;; Absolut;; Akroprom;; Altair groups;; Arsenal;; Artada;; EURO;; Margin;; Nika;; Скринька 2005;; 7.9650 UAH - Скринька 2005 number 9;; ; Today Banks Stand and most often buy 1 EUR for the price of 11.2600 UAH, that expensive at 6.00 cop. than yesterday and offered at a price of 11.3600 UAH, that the more expensive cop at 1.00. of the Bank and the Stand for the purchase of 1 EUR fluctuate in 11.0500 - 11.2700 UAH. Best Offers to buy 1 EUR at this time set in the following banks and Stand: 11.2700 UAH - Arsenal;; Nika;; 11.2600 UAH - Poltava-Bank KB;; YUZHKOMBANK CAUX;; Akroprom;; Altair groups;; Artada;; Скринька 2005;; of the Bank and Stand for sale 1 EUR vary in 11.3600 - 11.4300 UAH.