largest German energy group E. ON sold to a consortium of utilities to a subsidiary holding company Th #252; ga. As a result of the transaction, the German energy market is a new major player. deal to sell subsidiary of Th #252; ga consortium, consisting of municipal utilities, as approved by the supervisory board at a meeting on Wednesday evening, August 12, will concern E. ON 2,9 mlliarda euro. Thus, the first part of the planned restructuring of the group in which E. ON will sell its assets in the amount of 10 billion euro, has been completed. As a result of the transaction, the German energy market is a new major player - a consortium consisting of municipal utilities German cities of Hanover, Frankfurt and Nuremberg as well as group Kom9, which includes 46 utility companies. In 2008, the company Th #252; ga electricity supplied 3.5 million and 2.9 million gas customers. Its turnover amounted to 16.4 billion euros. According to energy expert, the Federal Association of Consumer Centers Holger Kravinkelya, the new owners of the company Th #252; ga positively affect the situation on the German energy market, allowing a consortium of savings synergies. Thanks to new markets in Russia and in the south of Europe in Spain and Italy, the largest German energy concern E.
13.08.09 condition at 17:00 the Kiev Banks and Items of currency exchange (PAE) is most often buy 1 USD at the price of 8.3000 UAH, that expensive at 9.00 cop. than yesterday and offered at a price of 8.4000 UAH, that expensive at 10.00 kopecks. of the Bank and the Stand for purchase 1 USD fluctuate within 8.2000 - 8.3300 UAH. Best Offers to buy 1 USD at this time set in the following banks and Stand: 8.3300 UAH - Aktiv-Bank;; Globe;; People's Capital;; YUZHKOMBANK CF;; Unexbank; ; Internet;; 8.3200 UAH - BG Bank;, Daniel;; Financial Initiative;; YUZHKOMBANK CA;; Artada;, Nick;; Скринька 2005 number 9;; of the Bank and Stand for sale 1 USD fluctuate within 8.3500 - 8.4500 UAH. best selling 1 USD at this time set in the following banks and Stand: 8.3500 UAH - Sberbank of Russia, Altair-group;; 8.3700 UAH - Diamantbank CA; , Golden Gate KB;; YUZHKOMBANK CA;; Arsenal;; EURO;; Nika;; ; Today Banks Stand and most often buy 1 EUR for the price of 11.8000 UAH, that expensive at 25.00 kopecks. than yesterday and offered at a price of 11.9500 UAH, that expensive at 25.00 kopecks. of the Bank and the Stand for the purchase of 1 EUR fluctuate in 11.5500 - 11.8800 UAH. Best Offers to buy 1 EUR at this time set in the following banks and Stand: 11.8800 UAH - People's Capital;; Akroprom;; Internet;; 11.8750 UAH - Nick; ; of the Bank and Stand for sale 1 EUR vary in 11.9000 - 12.1000 UAH.
USD /JPY Prices testing the resistance level of 95.90/96.00. If it is broken, wait for recovery to a point 96.30, and more, 96.60. The possibility of such an outcome suggests that the trend indicator OsMA at 4-hour graph (Figure 1) has become a rising focus. Up turned and oscillator RSI. SS turned down. It is therefore not totally exclude the possibility of back progress toward 95.40/30. At the time schedule (Fig. 2) OsMA also takes upward thrust. Top aimed both oscillator. All this confirms the assumption about the possible break of this level of resistance and further growth. So, in my opinion, the possibility of opening short positions on a purchase with a close stop-loss is considered only after the confirmation of a breakthrough price-level resistance 95.90/96.00. Support: 95.40/30, 95.00/94.90, 94.60/50, 94.10/00, 93.60/50, 93.20/00, 92.80/75, 92.40, 92.00, 91.55, 91.00, 90.70, 90.00. Resistance: 95.90/96.00, 96.30, 96.60, 97.00, 97.50/75, 98.00, 98.35, 98.60, 98.90/99.00, 99.40/60, 100.00, 100.50, 101.00, 101.40/50, 101.70, 102.00/10, 102.60, 102.90, 103.60, 104.00. USD /CHF prices through the fall test 1.0760 support level. If it is broken, wait for the continuation of the downward movement, the primary purpose of which is likely to become a mark 1.0730, and, further, 1.0700. However, at the 4-hour graph (Fig.3) trend indicator OsMA takes upward thrust. Top unfolded and the two oscillator (SS came from the pereprodannosti). All this suggests the possibility that this level will not be passed, and prices ottolknuvshis it will begin to rise. At the time schedule (Fig. 4) OsMA SS and confidently directed upwards, thus reaffirming the presumption of the likelihood of recovery in prices toward 1.0800. RSI was developed in the bear area. Given the above, in my opinion, is to wait for clarification before making any trading decisions. Ability to close sales with the stop-loss seen only after the confirmation of a breakthrough support 1.0760. Support: 1.0760, 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0650/30, 1.0615/00, 1.0550, 1.0500/1.0490, 1.0400, 1.0350, 1.0300, 1.0250, 1.0200, 1.0175, 1.0130, 1.0100, 1.0070. Resistance: 1.0800, 1.0840/50, 1.0900, 1.0935/40, 1.0970, 1.1000/10, 1.1050/60, 1.1100/20, 1.1150, 1.1200/15, 1.1270, 1.1320, 1.1375, 1.1400, 1.1450. EUR /USD Prices 1.4230/50 resistance test.
On the stock market continues otygryvanie yesterday's U.S. Fed meeting. Positive contained in the final comments, pushing the stock indices of the Old World all the above, to the maximum this year (DAX 1.3%, FTSE 1%). The Russian stock market also goes up (MICEX index 2%). However, by and large, virtually all of today's growth we have already taken place at the opening. Now, stock quotes, just trying to hold on to reach the level to go down to the closure of the resulting price breaks. Price for 2% oil serves excellent supporting factor. If the oil market will be small Drawdown, the Russian blue chips can be прикупить on yesterday's prices. At the level of 1110 points on the MICEX index was resistance on the market at the moment stumbled. Will it develop technical closure gepov morning, and this resistance is broken, and followed by continued growth, we know already evening. In the meantime, shortisty building up short positions for a run down. The reason for the correction may be in the first place today's data on retail sales in the United States (16.30 Moscow time), which is expected to grow by 0.8% by June. Much of the high sales growth will be due this month launched the program Cash for Clunkers, resulting in a sharp rise in sales of automobiles in the United States. As for the indicator of retail sales excluding sales of automobiles, there may even absolute decline. If you talk about the dynamics of trades on the Russian stock market, then it should be noted on 12%-ing off quotations of preferred shares in Transneft to report on the upcoming inclusion in the calculation of the index MSCI EM. This is really very good, with long-news - rebalansirovaka index will be 1 September, that allows to count on continuing demand for shares of the company until that date. Record of May daily trading volume of this paper demonstrates the seriousness of the buyers of its players. At 5% of shares went RusGidro, Mosenergo and OGK-4 - the most efficient companies in the electricity. Heavylift domestic stock market - paper, Rosneft, Gazprom, Lukoil, Sberbank added about 2%. We continue to look up on the Russian stock market as a whole. However, one can not help but note the significant resistance levels, which approached the individual securities - 200 rub. of Rosneft, 3500 rub. Nornikel on SMC, 50 rubles for Sberbank. Overcoming these marks will help to give our market a very strong impulse for further recovery in the June peak area index MICEX. But this requires the continued flow positive in external markets. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 1 users rated material 5. Analyst Ratings
asset management companies deny that they see the same vectors of the market of investment funds. However, everything they said that the most attractive in the near future it will be investing money in shares. These results gave a survey PT among the leading Ukrainian AMC. I do not think that all participants see the same development of the market co-investment. There is a diametrically different views on its future, and it just gives it its flavor - the president of AMC KINTO Sergey Oksanych. Not all market participants see the same IIS. According to official statements, for example, Troika Dialog and the text had to leave the market. In this regard, the expected proportion of reformatting the participants, - said Head of analytical department of AMC TASK Invest Andrew Shevchishin. Marketing Director Parex Asset Management Ukraine Konstantin Grishko also gave examples of some of AMC closed its business, some delay its development for several years. Others, by contrast, continue to administer their funds and create new ones, while adjusting the tactics but not strategy. This is absolutely normal market situation. A much more common ground in the views of companies in the infrastructure development market, its regulation and supervision, - he emphasized. Nevertheless, in the near future, all of AMC are betting on equities. Short-term liquid funds would be interested in the shares, - says Director of Investment AMC ART-Capital Management Vladimir Ovadenko. We are trying to conduct operations with the shares and make their volatility. perform such operations only with the fundamentally strong markets, which in the long term, always growing in price. Thus, if you're in long positions and the market went against you -- you will still be an opportunity to close the position above, just a little later , - said director general of AMC Concorde Asset Management Greg Peleh. In assessing the prospects of the Ukrainian stock market over the next six months, we believe that the main activity of the players will remain exclusively in the liquidity of shares. reason to expect significant growth in the market before the end of the year yet, but the current trend of providing the side some of the favorable investment. Therefore, when creating the appropriate conditions, the proportion of highly liquid shares in the structure of the investment portfolios of the funds will increase, - the director of AMC PIO Global Ukraine Grigory Ovcharenko.
Economy of Ukraine perceives a noticeable positive effect of lowering the discount rate and the working refinancing rate, if such a step the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will be supported by other institutions of government measures to revive economic activity in the country, says the head of the group of advisers NBU Valery chapter Litvitsky . There is no need to consider the decision of the National Bank (to lower rates) as a panacea ... Should the revitalization of economic processes, - he said at a press conference on Wednesday. This Litvitsky recalled that the liquidity of the banking system is strong, but hindered the revitalization of credit risk, existence of manufacturing industries. As reported, the NBU with the August 12 cut the discount rate from 11 to 10.25% per annum. At the same time, the National Bank lowered interest rates for loans overnight under the provision of government bonds from 16% to 15.5% per annum, and the blank - from 18% to 17% per annum. Team Leader Adviser to the Head of the NBU said that the decision to lower the discount rate and the rate of refinancing the Central Bank to stimulate the economy and taking into account the deceleration of inflation: this step does not bear any increase in money supply, but is aimed at cheaper grivnevyh resources. Inflation slows ... The balance of macroeconomic risks dominant factor associated with the decline of economy, - he explained. At the same time, according to experts, a certain improvement in the economy is already happening. Our economy will look like inthe second quarter is slightly better than the first, - predicts Litvitsky.
fundamentally nothing has changed: investors are still scaling down carry-trade, liquidity is still not entered the credit markets, but the euro in the past two weeks, began to grow. If since the beginning of spring we have seen increased demand for dollars, which led to an increase rate U.S. currency to $ 1.25 per euro, it has recently been marked by the opposite trend: the euro strengthened to the dollar to $ 1.42 per euro. Why is the euro currency is gaining momentum? It is very simple. Excess liquidity in the U.S., formed by the U.S. Fed injections, and the deficit on the other currencies naturally generate sales dollars. Currently, the most active dollar liquidity flows in the euro because the euro is second only to the U.S. on the use of central banks as a reserve currency that determines sufficient credibility as an object of investment. In addition, the strong integration of European and American banking systems has created a hole of liquidity on the balance sheet of European banks to be closed. However, according to experts, demand for the euro in the near future may come to naught. Closing holes liquidity denominated in euro, due to the conversion of dollars is quite natural limits, determined by standard Basel II. The point is that the financing of assets by liabilities denominated in other currencies, will form an open currency position, the value of which is limited to the level of capital. Therefore, when you close all the holes in the European banking system is clearly not do without infusions European Central Bank. To date, the ECB reported on plans for additional injection into the financial system (this is a program of redemption of secured bonds for 60 billion euros), and most likely the sum of the stabilization measures that the ECB is not exhausted. It is justified to expect that with the arrival of liquidity in the euro pressure on the dollar has dropped significantly, and additional support for the dollar will have a continuing rolling carry-trade. In future months, according to most experts, the dynamics of the euro /dollar will be largely determined by the difference in the intensity of injection of liquidity the Fed and the ECB in their financial systems. It seems that the U.S. Fed, as a matter of fact, the world's center of issue monetary base will act more intensively than the ECB, which plays into the hands of the euro. However, in the medium term, factors such as a hard landing the eurozone economy, the decline rate of the ECB and the growing deflationary risks would support the dollar. As is usually the case, sdutie one bubble inevitably leads to another. After receiving injections from central banks, financial institutions have been slow to liquidity in the credit market, expecting a write-off toxic assets, as well as the outflow of client funds. Banks will have to acquire expertise in long-term loans that they receive from their central banks to extend long-term assets, and not to increase the availability of liquidity in the short term. We remind banks of their responsibility to continue lending to companies and natural persons at affordable rates and in appropriate amounts, - was forced to head the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet. In the meantime, liquidity accumulated in highly liquid assets, ie U.S. treasury bonds. Thus, the bubble in the credit market is transformed into a bubble market CAUX. Price increases contributed CAUX deflationary risks that persist in the medium term against the backdrop of a recession in developed countries. However, when the first signs of growing inflationary risks the situation could change dramatically. Investors will focus its liquid assets, rasprodavaya CA on credit markets, because rising inflation means the beginning of recovery, which increases the propensity of investors to take risks. Ukrainian aspect Ukrainians in the last ten days, also witnessed the battles of course.
Polyus Gold Surrounding levels of support: 1250.0 /1235.0 /1220.0 /1200.0 nearest resistance levels: 1293.0 /1300.0 /1350.0 According to the results of yesterday's session, shares of Polyus Gold added to the value of 3.587%. The opening of the stock is expected in the positive zone. Imprint profit recommend near point 1293 rub. Where the strong resistance level. In the case of strengthening the positive sentiment shares may test the 1300 mark rub. In the case of Perforation where you can look for stocks to buy. Level of support will make 1250 rubles., Open positions on the purchase of recommended level of 1235 rubles. Gazprom Surrounding levels of support: 161.0 /160.0 /155.0 nearest resistance levels: 168.7 /170.0 /175.0 Shares of Gazprom, on the basis of the last trading session closed in the black, amounting to 0,414%. External background emerged with the opening of bids, contributes to continued growth. Shares of Gazprom turned to EUR 170. Near the point of this is to record a profit. Open positions on the purchase is at the lower limit of the channel - about 161 rubles. Company Surrounding levels of support: 1526.2 /1500.0 /1496.0 /1468.4 nearest resistance levels: 1557.9 /1565.0 /1584.0 /1600.0 At the end of last session, shares of Lukoil added to the cost of 0.847%. Shares closed down over a significant level - 50% correction on the first of the Fibonacci series of annual maxima (1526.2 rub.). This level will also speak on the role of support today. The opening of the stock is expected in the green zone. Imprint profit is near the mark of 1565 rubles., On which shares may be turning around. However, in the case of Perforation of the shares may test the resistance of 61.8% th Fibonacci correction on from the annual maximum (1584 rub.) Further rush to 1600 rubles. open positions on the purchase of shares of Lukoil is a mark of 1500 rubles. Savings Bank Surrounding levels of support: 47.1 /46.2 /45.0 /44.0 nearest resistance levels: 48.5 /49.6 /50.0 Shares of Sberbank closed in the black, amounting to 2.379%. At the opening of the growth may continue. Shares in the bank could once again test the box 48,5 EUR. Samples of recent actions have already tried 4 times. This level of resistance is quite strong, so close to 48.5 rubles. record profits. Open positions on the purchase cost only in the case of Perforation of the confidence level that will help to establish new goals for the shares. Level of support for the action of the Savings Bank is a 61.8% correction on th Fibonacci (47.1 EUR).. The level of 46.2 rubles. looks attractive for the formation of positions on a purchase. VTB Surrounding levels of support: 4,10 /4,00 /3,82 nearest resistance levels: 4,26 /4,38 /4,44 /4,50 Shares VTB-up session added to the cost of 1,932%. Growth at the opening can be restrained by the upper boundary of the downward short-channel, in which securities are traded bank since the beginning of August. In the case of Perforation up the upper boundary recommend open positions on the purchase of 61.8% with the aim of the first correction of Fibonacci (4,38 cop.). In the event of deteriorating sentiment shares can go down to 50% of the first correction of Fibonacci (4,10 cop.). Authorize and appreciate the story;; Your grade will be the first! Analyst Ratings
Ukrainian stock market, a few months ago in the vicinity of the multi-minima, opened a second wind. Stock Quotes quickly went up, demonstrating the fact polutorokratny growth! It lasted until mid-June. At present the situation is stable - the quotations do not grow and not fall. As experts say, the stock market stays sideways trend. However, anxiety among the players did not pass, and that's OK ... Instead preface in the media was informed that some of the masters of the Ukrainian stock business is ready to abandon the management of public institutions of joint investment in view of the unfavorable situation on the securities market. At first sight, surprising, knowing that people take such action at a time when everything seems to be not so bad. In fact, until recently the situation seem worse: the rapid devaluation of hryvnia (30% month to month), the fall in industrial production, increasing the problem of bad bank debts. This is not surprising - Ukrainian officials and experts, ceasing to make projections superoptimisticheskie (remember the summer of last year, when many of them did not want to believe in the obvious and argued that the world financial and economic crisis for some reason to bypass Ukraine party), went to another extreme : prophesy horror without end. In such a situation, the market of any country fever would not lower. What motivates the Ukrainian stock market, even as it can earn? Does the movement of quotations of shares any sense? Plot on One of the common opinion among analysts is that in our market, there is a conspiracy. For example, a quotation often attributed the movement of major players, swing boat. You can hear the version of the type is now large investors finally shake out with the trading platforms of small investors. There is a belief that financial markets driven by forces behind the U.S. Federal Reserve (if not the CIA), and only about a worldwide Jewish conspiracy, and say nothing - where did it without him? People in general tend to believe that there is a powerful force, and such stories become their listeners. Secret difficult to prove, for the same reason, difficult to prove, and the lack of plot. But given that the market, hundreds of players who are physically unable to agree - it becomes clear that this theory is likely far from the truth. Against all the conspirators, there are other cool with the money, which do not agree (and only if the cool know about conspiracy, it is not difficult to play well against the market - because they are aware of his movements forthcoming). Yes, and any conspiracy, if it really exists, necessarily came to the light. Belief in higher power is typical for people who are just a few of the Proca situation in the financial markets. Even if you believe in the unbelievable plot, we can not give any explanation for fluctuations, or projection, because we are not part of the world zakulisya. Others believe that the market - this element, which faces the people. And therein lies the main problem. I'll try to explain his idea. dividend modeling As stocks around the world too much range, but people want to get them to return, economists have been able to invent the theory of efficient markets and rational expectations. The idea is simple: if we put, for example, in Oschadbank hryvnia and 10 thousand a year are going to pick up 12 thousand hryvnia, then our rate of return would be 20% per annum. Slightly change the task: in a year will get 12 thousand hryvnia, if we take and diskontiruem this amount at a rate of 20% (ie, divided into 1.2), we can find the current fair value of such a deposit, which will be equal to 10 thousand hryvnia. By shares applied this mathematics known as the discounting models. This is only for the securities need to predict future dividends and discount them at an appropriate rate. As a result, we get the so-called fair value. Of course, no one knows the future dividend payments on shares, but they could try to rationally to predict, at least to some degree. Of course, the figure would be obtained by not precise, but it can at least talk about, it is expensive or cheap action (note that in the latter case it must be purchased). Is from June 2008 to March 2009, when the stock market fell more than 4 times, people have revised forecasts of future dividends in the Ukraine during the same time? Obviously the answer is no. the fall of dividends and profits for a year or two or three during the economic recession is not a model of discounting: the crisis will still end, and dividend return to its normal level. Economists and can not explain why the equity markets vary so much. In our case, science would not be able to justify their models is why investors are willing to give a price for some 'average share in the 4-fold lower than only a year and a half after reaching a peak index PFTS, which was recorded in January 2008. All explanations will be based on fluctuations in the irrational, irrational behavior of investors in the market.
The most interesting and technically logical bidding yesterday were, in our view, on the Russian stock market. Morning, shares continued by inertia to fall, and after lunch on the positive operevshis prevailing on European Exchange, began to grow slowly, slowly dialing up. Nevertheless, the Russian stock market was lifted only pereprodannost local papers, the technical capacity of the fall has not had time to realize the full. The lack of bad news - this is good news, investors judged the U.S.. And the quotations of securities commented on the striking increase in the position of the U.S. Federal Reserve with respect to rates and dry comments of representatives of the bank, like a tracing paper written off from previous meetings. Players especially razzadoril that the Fed statement on U.S. rates remain extremely low for an extended period of time. That is, the money will be cheap and instead of that they raise the real sector, you can continue to inflate the bubble in the stock market. particularly well is pumped money banking stock market dollars. He pledged government support for a large share of which will be reduced only by November. Two days of correction on the U.S. stock market is almost not affected shares of banks, and yesterday they were again led growth. However, in our paper cheap foreign investors to invest money in no hurry. The growth of our ADRs was symbolic. The true interest of market participants have shown only to the shares of Mechel. These securities may lies some Inside, as well as at auction in Russia, they actively grow on a large volume of trades. movements in commodity markets yesterday were also symbolic. It seems that oil prices are drawing a new side channel, which borders on oil brand Brent, will be 72 - 81 dollars per barrel. And the price of gold continues to boring, bezrezultativnuyu combating resistance 960/955 dollars per ounce. Market Today Today, there is little doubt that the morning of the Russian stock market will begin to increase prices. But this growth will be involved solely in the fear of bear in front of large losses and greed bulls who indiscriminately will sweep shares, Seth, that yesterday missed a good time to buy. In the coming growth will be all the pain and injuries, and the joy of victory, however, it will not be the main - reason. Under the U.S. Federal funds rate, many Throgmorton Street played yesterday. Quotations of our popular securities difficult to shut down trading session in positive territory, obviously having played overseas positive, but first managed to get out of a deep minus 2-3%. Bykov, of course, can be understood - for three days made a noticeable drop in the paper more attractive. But the players on the increase failed to take into account the small detail, they failed to realize the full correction in the market under the laws of technical analysis. The papers have been deployed on the growth, from anywhere, not just from the sign of support. But the alarming fact is not that some viewed the paper is not reached important milestones, but the fact that many blue chips have been able to test them during the bidding process. For example, shares of Sberbank has not reached the line of the rising trend from July 13, 2009 44.88 ruble shares of Surgutneftegas not reached the level of support for 23 rubles, designated line correction on the Fibonacci 50% to the growth of quotations of 13 July to 5 August 2009, but it is not so interesting as the fact that shares of Gazprom have shown that if desired they routinely walk by the support of 160 rubles, VTB has securities on the shoulder, seemingly immutable boundary 0.4115 ruble Paper MMC Norilsk Nickel had a strong mark of 3250 rubles, shares RusGidro showed weakness, and showed that they still pulls in the downstream channel from 8 Jun., 2009 for the 1,218 ruble note. The easiest way in this environment, not to take action and monitor progress of the bidding. But we are not looking for easy ways, and the resistance that stopped the growth of the market a couple of days ago, will look for opportunities to open new short positions. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 4 users rated material at 4,2. Analyst Ratings