According to preliminary data the RF Ministry of Economic Development, in July this year fall in GDP amounted to 9,3% in January-July - 10,2% compared with the corresponding period last year. As stated in the report of the Ministry, the country's continuing decline of construction and consumer demand. At the same time is marked trend recovery in industrial production and freight transport, stopped the decline of investment in fixed capital. As a result, with the exception of the seasonal factor, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, GDP growth continues the second consecutive month - in July, GDP grew by 0,5% compared to June. However, the preliminary estimate of Rosstat, in the second quarter of 2009 the volume of GDP fell by 10.9% for the second quarter of 2008, relative to the first quarter of this year grew by 7,5%. federal budget deficit, according to preliminary estimates the Finance Ministry, in January-July of this year amounted to 923.8 billion rubles, or 4,3% of GDP, against a surplus of $ 2 118.9 billion rubles (9.3% of GDP) for same period a year earlier.
Dynamics On Friday 21 August at the tender quotes for precious metals have risen in price due to the fall of the dollar in the currency market FOREX, as well as on the background of positive sentiment in neighboring markets and stock exchanges. As a result of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), quotes on gold rose by 13.00 to 954.70 dollars per ounce, the price of silver rose 28 cents to 14.20 dollars per ounce. Causes On Friday, August 21 quotes for precious metals market has shown a significant increase in the price. Shares in the stock markets because of the positive quarterly financial results of companies came mostly in the green, the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market against the background of the publication in Europe and the United States a favorable economic data has made another drop in oil quotes were moving to their new highs - the entire set of positive Signal pushed precious metals quotes up. The positive comments on the economy by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the U.S. also contributed to the upward tone in the gold market. From news can note that in the second quarter of 2009, demand for gold from the jewelry industry has fallen to a 5-year low. Global economic recession affected the purchasing power of consumers of gold, in addition, was influenced by high prices and volatility of the dollar. The demand for gold fell by 8,6% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 719.5 tons, while demand from the jewelry industry dropped by 22% to 404,1 tons. Investment demand (buying bullion and coins) reached 222.4 tons, which is 46,4% higher than last year. However, in the second quarter of 2009, investment demand was the lowest since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, 2008 The surge in investor interest in gold as a safe investment waned.
American currency on the Forex still under pressure. The main reason for the weak dollar is a positive, had taken possession of the stock markets, resulting in the global trading platforms continues fairly aggressive growth. His contribution to the strengthening of higher-yielding currencies against the dollar makes and macroeconomic statistics. So, last Friday took the data on indices of business activity in the manufacturing and service sectors in the euro area. According to preliminary estimates, both figures show steady growth, which has already exceeded the forecasts of specialists. A significant positive trend noted in particular in Germany, where the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector showed growth in August to a level 49.0 points from 45.7 in July (forecast assumes growth to only 47.1 points). Another important factor in the weakening U.S. dollar on the Forex is rising in price petroleum, quotes that have already risen above $ 70 mark per barrel. However, analysts point out that black gold continues to find support above this level and fall down while not in a hurry, despite the high volatility of the market.
USD Last week was pretty quiet, given the lack of economic data, and the peacefulness of traders. But for all the sum of the dollar until neluchshim way, as stock markets continue to demonstrate capacity, forcing investors to look more positively in the future. His five cents to a common cause to restore the business optimism has made and Bernanke, speaking in Wyoming in Jackson Hole on the theme The world financial crisis. One year later. He optimistically said that everything starts to stabilize, but outlook remains very good - not like the situation-year-old statute of limitations, when the government allowed Lehman Brothers to die, thus signing the death sentence still dozens of organizations around the world. And, everything else, head Fedrezerva stressed that we are lucky and things could be much worse if not for him (OK, and several other central banks), the active change of monetary policy. Here is such a modest realist. Incidentally, Trichet did not share the brave spirit of Ben, expressing doubts about the restoration of the global economy - that's the first differences of views with power. In addition, unexpectedly pleasant surprise prepared and economic data (although we have expressed such assumptions based on the growth of outstanding transactions on the purchase of Resale). Sales in the secondary housing market in the U.S. rose more than expected, almost reaching its maximum of two years. Further evidence that the world's largest economy begins to recover from the effects of the financial crisis. The number of transactions increased by 7,2% to 5,24 million, which was a record performance in August of 2007. Due to the large number of defaults on mortgage loans, a sharp fall in prices, which, coupled with government programs, and record low mortgage rates could attract buyers in the housing market. Thus, the theme of the housing market may attract the attention of traders - should begin with published Tuesday, the price index SP /Case Shiller, then on Wednesday spread to the attention of sales in the primary market. Monday, likely to take place in preparation for more important events of the week continued, as a particularly interesting report is not planned. EUR Euro became the biggest winner of Friday's burst of optimism, an incentive on the part of different national indicators, and from the statements of official representatives. The volume of production in the private sector for the first time France has grown for 15 months in August.
Information Unit (part of the investment holding company Finam) held a conference Russia and the CIS countries: what remains of the former friendship?. The participants shared their views on the prospects of interstate relations between Russiaand Ukraine in light of the recent conflict associated with the publication of Russia's president in a message addressed to his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yushchenko. Head of Research Department of the Center for Political Technologies, Tatiana Become, said Medvedev message to Yushchenko - the double layer: The first reason is more banal. Kiev, giving the receptor for the appointment of Ambassador Zurabov did not want to rush his credentials. That is , Zurabov could come, but a fully working - no. To this must be how to react. The second reason is more profound - that Moscow's response personally to Viktor Yushchenko and his policies. The main irritant has been the Kremlin's Ukraine's cooperation with Georgia in the military developments in last August. Kremlin after Yushchenko's party believes that a military conflict, albeit indirectly. The message has the opportunity to show what happened to him as a political leader, Russia does not want to deal with. Nevertheless, according to Ms. Stanovoi, the appropriateness of the message is controversial, because Russia struck not only by Yushchenko's foreign policy, but also on the national identity of Ukrainians. Message Medvedev is evidence that Moscow had a disastrous few tools of interaction and address the problems with the CIS countries, believes Head of the Heritage Foundation Eurasia Yuri Panasik. Experts estimate that another factor was the presidential election in Ukraine, which are of fundamental importance for Russia. agrees with the opinion of colleagues and the Head of Analytical Department, CCT PROPAGANDA Irina Tsurin, noted that presidential elections will determine the actual relationship with Russia for a long period, including the issue of withdrawal will affect the Black Sea Fleet: There were hopes that the disappointment Yushchenko will reverse the momentum toward Russia.
Information Unit (part of the investment holding company Finam) held a conference Russia and the CIS countries: what remains of the former friendship?. Its members believe that now the policy of Russia in the post-Soviet space has a low efficiency. The reason for this appears excessive rigidity in the statements, which are not always supported by real actions. Political analysts believe that now, Russia's policy in the CIS does not give the obvious positive results. Competition for influence in post-Soviet space is growing, and the only thing that should be (only) - to improve their attractiveness to the CIS countries. During the period of high energy prices, Russia could use the carrot and stick policy ... is now the possibility of more limited. And Experience shows that the most difficult to Russia - the countries facing difficulties in building their own state. The weakness of the regimes in problem countries also creates a lot of temptation to use a harder line: Moscow thus hoped that this would undermine the regime. But, as seen until such policies are themselves not very justified , - considers the head of analytical department of the Center for Political Technologies, Tatiana Become. Another position of the Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS countries Vladimir Zharikhin: Frankly, I think that all this talk that Russia must learn to talk on equal footing with their neighbors, get rid of the notorious imperial complexes , and then everything will be fine, give a kind of magnanimity. Russia, such as it is, and will never be able to get into the skin of the ordinary post-Soviet state. Rather, other CIS countries must learn to live with great power. It is precisely in their lives phantom recollection of himself as of the great Soviet Union, Imperial minikompleksy, which forced them to build its foreign policy following the example of the Soviet Union, including in relation to Russia. One of the causes of the problem - the lack of systematic in building relations with former Soviet states.
Sberbank of Russia and OAO Oil company Magma (a group company Sibir Energy) signed a loan agreement worth $ 200 million for 2 years, the report said the bank. loan granted to finance the ongoing activities of the company. Bank is considering financing of OJSC Oil company Magma as an important step in support of the oil sector Russia economy. Credit Relations parties to the agreement will strengthen and expand mutually beneficial cooperation between Sberbank of Russia and a group of companies Sibir Energy, noted in the announcement Sberbank . OJSC Oil Company Magma - a subsidiary of Sibir Energy plc. Principal activities: oil, production and wholesale of petroleum products. Sibir Energy plc - a vertically integrated oil company with a daily production more than 80 000 barrels.
U.S. Market The American sites continues rally. As a result of the auctions the index of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 152.20 points, or 1.6%, to 9503 points. The index of wide market SP 500 was closed by growth of 18.73 points, or 1.8%, at around 1026 points. This Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke inspired optimism in market participants. Over the past week the index Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2%, the index of wide market SP 500 has grown on 2,2%. The market reacted positively to a report on housing sales in the secondary market in the U.S., where sales surged in July, growth was 7.2% to 5.24 million homes. In principle, it is clear that the secondary market has stabilized, but in this growth, there are some interesting points: prices fell in July to 2.0%, ie sales are the background of falling prices, it is clear that a significant part of the turnover took credit at home with a good discount. Last year, home prices fell by 15.1%. More interesting was the moment that the rising sales also rose sharply and the stock of housing (number of homes for sale), which amounted to 4.1 million homes, adding 7.3%. Eventually oversupplied market is stagnant 9.4 months. Many experts attributed the growth indexes in the United States in recent days with the upcoming expiration of options. The crowd played a fall and bought a huge amount of put option, the largest open interest was observed at strikes 980, 960 index, SP 500.
Strong growth in world indices may have been partly due to the closing of short positions after the breakdown of the maximum values In the last trading day last week, the world's major indexes updated highs since last fall. As part of the growing trend is the breakdown of highs - a good signal. Now the level of 1012-1015 is local support, while resistance to a mark of 1,200 points is difficult to identify. Futures on the S P500 index closed down in a small bekvordatsii to the spot index. Overbought on the RSI yet. At the same time, Russia's indexes are still far from the maximum value this year. The MICEX index closed at a sloping resistance line (see chart), which, of course, can speak in favor of a small correction. However, the breakdown of this line with a high probability will mean a trip to the highs of the year. increase in stock prices was accompanied by a decline in the dollar on Forex, the dollar approached the lowest level since September last year. Pair euro-dollar is not yet able to overcome the 1.4450 mark. In the case of the passage above this level can expect continued growth in the euro to a mark 1.4950 - 1,50. Reduction dollar supported commodity futures quotes. Oil slightly grown, again approaching a local maximum. The most significant added futures contracts on precious metals, especially gold and copper. Ruble did not show significant movements and gradually strengthened since Tuesday. We continue to believe that the Russian Ruble was widely Comma delimited in the near future - possibly from 30,5 up to 34-34,5 rub. It is possible that Friday and the strong rise in global indices was partly due to the closing of short positions after the breakdown of maximum values. Liquidity in the markets do not become smaller. For example, the 3-month dollar LIBOR rate continues to decline despite the fact that she and so is less than 0,5%. exclude the possibility of correction, of course, impossible, and as always we recommend that the speculators have stop-loss on each open position. But currently there are no factors clearly point to a significant reduction in themarkets and we continue to recommend the play from Long, that is to choose an entry point for long positions, rather than seek time for the shorts. MICEX Significant levels: support: 1060, 980, 860, 740, 600, 500, Resistance - 1240, 1500-1550. Authorize and appreciate the story;; 1 users rated material at 2. Analyst Ratings
results of trading on the MICEX Group's markets, August 21, 2009 Exchange Market As a result of bidding the dollar with the calculations of Today increased by 24.3 kopecks. (0.7686%) to 31.8597 rubles. the dollar. Bidding opened at the rate of transaction 31.9146 rubles. the dollar. During the trading day parties to conclude the deal in the range of 31.6700-31.9800 rub. the dollar. Last transaction is concluded at the rate of 31.6800 rubles. the dollar. Bidding on the dollar with the calculations of Tomorrow opened the transaction at the rate of 31.9300 rubles. the dollar. As a result of trades on the MICEX 11:30 to the dollar with the calculations of tomorrow Bank of Russia set the official ruble-dollar rate of 31.9443. During the trading day parties to conclude the deal in the range of 31.6150-31.9999 rub. the dollar. Last transaction is concluded at the rate of 31.6400 rubles. the dollar. As a result of trading the dollar with the calculations of tomorrow has grown by 16.2 kopecks. (0.5117%) to 31.8224 rubles. the dollar. The volume of transactions with dollar instruments increased by 2.1% to 10882.5 million, of which 6153.6 million (56.5% of turnover) had to swap operation. Transactions with the single European currency for today were in the range of 45.3410-45.5510 rub. for the euro. The last transaction was at the rate of 45.4625 rubles. for the euro. As a result of the weighted average auction rate of the euro in the calculations Today has increased by 47.85 kopecks. (1.063%) to 45.4795 rubles. for the euro. Crednevzveshenny euro exchange rate with the calculations of tomorrow was 45.4710 rubles. for the euro (41.06 kopeks. or 0.911%). The last transaction was at the rate of 45.3690 rubles. for the euro. The total volume of transactions in euro-denominated instruments decreased by 1.8095% to 1177.6 million dollars (9.7% of the turnover of the currency market). The MICEX foreign exchange market concluded 8605 transactions on all instruments, totaling U.S. $ 12193.1 million, which is 1.4% more than in the previous trading day. Government Securities Market Trading volume on the market of public debt amounted to 65433.1 million rubles., including the volume of secondary trading - 2806.2 million rubles., the amount of repurchase transactions mezhdilerskogo - 24494.1 million rubles., the volume of direct REPO transactions - 30449.7 million rubles. The value of the price index RGBI at closing - Section 116.1 (0.22%), the index of total revenue RGBITR - 204.37 subsection (0.25%), the index returns RGBY - 11.72% (-0.06 percentage points). In the secondary market trading has become the leader of the issuance of bonds SU25066, on which the transactions took place at 1.089 billion rubles. Yield most liquid securities comprised: SU25066 - 11.31% (-0.02 percentage points), SU25065 - 12.05% (the yield has not changed), SU25067 - 11.91% (-0.02 percentage points), SU25064 - 11.48% (-0.28 percentage points), SU26198 - 11.88% (0.01 percentage points), SU25057 - 9.17% (-0.52 percentage points). stock market At the end of the trading day value of the MICEX Index reached 1106.05 points, which is 4.06% above the closing level of the previous trading day. MICEX Oil and Gas Index - 2,122 (4,139%), MICEX Power Index - 1708,99 (1,424%), MICEX Telecommunication Index - 1215,3 (1,995%), MICEX Metals and Mining Index - 2888,68 ( 4,435%), MICEX Manufacturing Index - 1102,65 (1,977%), MICEX Financials Index - 3504,81 (1,994%). MICEX Large Cap Index - 1799,49 (4,154%), MICEX Mid Cap Index - 1577,91 (2,9%), MICEX Start Cap Index - 2418,2 (1,756%). leader of growth among the blue chips have become common shares of Rosneft, the price of which rose by 6.85%. Grew up quotes GAZPROMao ordinary shares (5.89%), Surgnfgz (5.61%), LUKOIL (5.48%), GMKNorNik (4.14%), Sberbank (3.88%), VTB Bank JSC (1.83%), Gazprom Neft (1.62%). Trading volume on the stock market, MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 109.47 billion rubles. (3463.99 million), of which 68.87 billion rubles. (2179.27 million) were in secondary trading, 40.6 billion rubles. (1284.72 million) - for repo transactions. The market for corporate and regional bonds. At the end of the day trading volume of corporate and regional bonds on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 63.4 billion rubles. (2006.9 million), of which 8.1 billion rubles. (255.4 million dollars) were in secondary trading, 55.4 billion rubles. (1751.5 million) - for repo transactions. decreased bond yields MGor39-on for 0.16 percentage points, GAZPROM A4 - by 0.14 percentage points, WGC-2 01ob - by 0.12 percentage points, MGor54-on - by 0.07 percentage points, MGor56-on - by 0.02 percentage points Do not change bond yields IBRD 05obl. Grew up bond yields MGor45-reported by 0.01 percentage points, DalSvzBO5 - by 0.03 percentage points, MGor50-on - by 0.06 percentage points, Wimm-Bill-Dann 3ob - by 0.18 percentage points Index CBI CP up to the day up 88.08 points, down 0.02% on the value of the previous trading day, the index MBI CP - 86.74 points, having increased by 0.07% relative to previous trading day. Derivatives Market. Total trading volume amounted to 2.65 billion rubles. 80870 or contracts. The volume of open positions - 2142525 contracts (2147.2 million). Futures on USD: trading volume - 2.62 billion rubles., The volume of open positions - 2,124,913 contracts (2124.91 million). Futures EUR: Total open interest - 14288 Contract (21.149 million dollars). Futures on EUR /USD: Total open interest - 175 contracts (0.251 million). MICEX Index futures: trading volume - 26.73 million rubles., The volume of open positions - 25 contracts (2.7 million rubles.). Futures on Gazprom: trading volume - 6.56 million rubles., The volume of open positions - 881 contracts (14.56 million USD).. Futures on Savings: trading volume - 0.01 million rubles., The volume of open positions - 2,243 contracts (10.87 million USD).. market for grain futures volume of transactions was 172.77 million rubles. (35.7 tons). The volume of open positions - 22.91 million rubles. (5.2 tons). In Bond Market You can find information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned placement, the outcome of trades on the MICEX and read the comments on the bond market. Authorize and appreciate the story;; Your grade will be the first! Analyst Ratings