FOREX and Financial Crisis

Russia stock market ends the day confident in the background of a serious decline in the fall of the U.S. indices and lower oil prices. America has played on the side of the bears. The Chicago index of business activity in September fell from 50 to 46.1 points, is expected to increase to 52 points. Perhaps the completion of today's trading will affect the data on oil reserves, if the numbers will affect the dynamics of oil prices. Russia mixed background. Reporting Polymetal for the first half of US GAAP standards was worse than expected. However pleased macroeconomics, inflation in September was zero. Devaluation fears were not realized, and now you can delete the paper Surgut to its currency Potbelly of the favorites. Remaining Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft. Because no oil - MTS. Other papers are not so interesting, the company badly battered Russia's crisis, and, possibly, some embellished statements. Of course, to predict short-term dynamics of the market is difficult, because is subject to random factors. The situation, however, in our view, remains generally in favor of bulls and the potential market of nearly bounced back to the end, he is 10-20%, primarily due to higher oil dubbed chips and Gazprom. log in and see the material;; 8; users rated material on 4,5. Analyst Ratings

Thus, reducing the euro ended yesterday at around 1.4525. The Dow Jones closed down fall of 0.48%. But at night the euro began to grow, while Asian markets closed in plus. Now futures on the Dow shows a growth of 0.41%. Prices for WTI crude oil has risen to 67.93 dollars per barrel. Euro also struck up a top-down channel, and showed a maximum at around 1.4673. As we thought worked double divergence of the MACD. We believe that yesterday's decline correction finalized and the euro will soon update the highs, and continue to rise unabated. It seems that the past correction is comparable to that observed at the euro-dollar at the beginning of October 2007. Then the euro after the correction was still about the same as done previously. We now expect the euro to a mark of 1.53 in the next month. Perhaps the growth efforts today after the publication of data on employment in the United States from ADP. In general comment on the local market situation in relation to some emerging news in the current situation, it seems pointless, just as in fact there were any unnecessary comments in 2007 from August to November, except for a finding of an uptrend. We continue to believe that the devaluation of the dollar to the U.S. economy to support the industry. If the Bank of England Mervyn King has openly stated that Britain is advantageous weak pound for rebalancing the economy, given the extreme similarity of the problems with budget deficits and trade balances in the U.S. and the UK, it is easy to conclude that the weak dollar is advantageous for the U.S. economy. This determines the trajectory of the euro-dollar in recent months, just as the need for economy in the U.S.

At 16.00 Moscow time the price index value RGBI totaled 119.34. Compared with the previous day's close, it rose by 0.4 part (0.336%). Trading volume on the market of government securities amounted to 41.15 billion rubles. SU25064RMFS5 Yield on bonds with maturity in January 2012 was 10.31% (-0.1 percentage points), SU25066RMFS0 on bonds with maturity in July 2011 - 10.1% (-0.17 percentage points) on the bonds SU25068RMFS6 with maturity in August 2014 - 11.22% (-0.21 percentage points), SU26199RMFS8 on bonds with maturity in July 2012 - 10.59% (-0.09 percentage points), SU26202RMFS0 on bonds with maturity in December 2014 - 11.13% (-0.3 percentage points). C corporate bonds concluded 908 deals amounting to 6706.33 million rubles. Yield on bonds HCFB-6 with maturity in June 2014 was 16.09% (3.75 percentage points), the System-02 bonds with maturity in August 2014 - 13.44% (-0.13 percentage points) , Mosenergo1 on bonds with maturity in September 2011 - 12.01% (0.18 percentage points), Lukoyl3obl on bonds with maturity in December 2011 - 11.64% (-0.05 percentage points) on the bonds VTB - LizF02 with maturity in July 2015 - 11.58% (0.33 percentage points). C sub-federal and municipal bonds concluded 245 deals amounting to 2829.41 million rubles. Yield on bonds MGor62-on with maturity in June 2014 was 12.32% (-0.25 percentage points), on bonds MGor61-on with maturity in June 2013 - 12.24% (-0.07 percentage points), , on bonds MGor56-on with maturity in September 2016 - 12.6% (-0.27 percentage points), Astrahan1 on bonds with maturity in December 2009 - 15.88% (6.07 percentage points) on the bonds MGor54-on with maturity in September 2012 - 11.42% (-0.33 percentage points). Trading volume on the MICEX derivatives market at 16: 00 Moscow time amounted to 3.48 billion rubles. Futures on USD: trading volume - 1.24 billion rubles., Quotation of the nearest futures - 30,11 rub. (-0.137 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 1.6 million counter. futures EURO: the volume of open positions - 13,5 thousand counter. MICEX Index futures: trading volume - 2.17654 billion rubles., quotation of the nearest futures - 121,790 rubles. (610 rub.), The volume of open positions - 2621 counter. Futures on Gazprom: the volume of trades - 29.13 million rubles., quotation of the nearest futures - 17966 rub. (-198 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 877 contr. futures Savings: trading volume - 28.76 million rubles., quotation of the nearest futures - 6114 rubles. (42 rubles.), The volume of open positions - 1622 counter. In the Bond Market You can find information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned deployment, the outcome of trading on the MICEX and read the comments on the bond market. log in and see the material;; Your score will be the first! Analyst Ratings

Oil regrowth, but Russia's stock market in no hurry to follow. Growth is very selective market slowly creeping upward. Oil today demonstrates a steady rise, as observed during yesterday's trading. To date, quotes Brent rose by 1.5%, which supports our optimism regarding Russia's market, especially oil chips. Last month, quarter and fiscal year in the United States speak a kind of additional factor pushing up share prices - controlling interest in a high overestimation of their portfolios at the balance sheet date, which can lead artificially high prices, especially in low liquidity securities. Despite the positive trend in prices in the oil market, shares of oil and gas companies can never return to the task of Russia's economy in the interest of investors. Market participants continue to win back the most interesting idea in our market - the transition of network companies on RAB and the probability of transition to a single share. And this morning, the demand for paper MRSC was just great. Take off in the first minutes of trading quoted at 15-30% at very high volume of trading was very unexpected. We have repeatedly pointed to the undervalued companies sector, but to explain the present as such a huge surge of interest in them can not. In the first hour of trading volumes on these previously illiquid securities exceeds the corresponding figure for such chips, as Chairman of Audit Committee or Uralsvyazinform. However, after a sharp rise at the opening, the potential for further growth of capitalization of many IDCs significantly decreased, respectively, the players lean on short-term speculation, it makes sense to fix the current profit. For more conservative as investors pay attention to shares of the largest distribution company - Grid (6%), which, although it does not have in its name the letters IDC, however, belongs to the same group, and have at least impressive growth potential. From the blue chips is once again allocated shares metallurgists - Severstal (3.4%) and MMC Nornickel (2.5%). The growth of the oil market today weakly expressed. Gazprom (-0.7%) all traded with a decrease in quotations. In the second tier securities in addition to IDC, the growth rate are allocated shares of PIK Group, soaring more than 10% after reports the company has reached an agreement to restructure its loan portfolio with Sberbank. Thus, the risk of bankruptcy is passed, the worst is over, and investors may have to re-evaluate the prospects of the company, based on its cash flows and prospects, not to play guessing about the viability of the company in a money hungry. This evening we are waiting out the important statistics. At 16.15 Moscow time, will be published data on the number of jobs created in the private sector from ADP (forecast -200 thousand), and at 17.45 Moscow time - Chicago PMI (forecast 52 points). The main course, are the data on the labor market, which are the harbingers of Friday payrolls. After today announced a reduction in September, unemployment in Germany (from 8.3% it dropped to 8.2%, while the absolute reduction in the number of unemployed observed for the third month in a row), similar positive information to investors wanted to hear, and the United States. But, apparently, this is not the short term. log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material 5. Analyst Ratings

global equity markets past trades on the U.S. stock market finished lower for most securities quotations. In leaders of falling - shares of technology companies and the oil sector. During the day will be published final data on U.S. GDP for the second quarter. On average, U.S. experts expect that the Ministry of Commerce will lower their estimates of changes in GDP to minus 1.2% instead announced earlier minus 1%. Tomorrow, the International Monetary Fund will announce the revised forecast of world economic growth for this year and 2010. According to German newspaper Handelsblatt, forecast will be significantly improved. In the first half of the day care environment growing up futures on America. Asian sites are completing today's trading session, mostly negative. Green traded Japanese Nikkei 225. In August, the sixth month in a row, Japan has increased the volume of industrial production, growth amounted to 1,8% in comparison to the previous month. However, in comparison to the previous year the production is still lower - by 18,7% against the same period. Also in the morning there was an information that the Bank of Japan in connection with the improvement of the situation in the credit market in October can decide not to renew a program of emergency purchase of corporate debt. Metal Market Yesterday all base metals traded on the London Stock Exchange, except for copper, was able to complete the trading session positive changes. Leader trades - nickel prices increased by 2,3% (up to $ 17140). Prices for aluminum (1852 $) and lead (2232 $) increased by more than 1%. Zinc and tin symbolically rose by 0,3% (1883 $) and 0,4% ($ 14,450), respectively. Happy Wednesday all, without exception, the major industrial metals traded at a higher cost. Significant growth of quotations on the celebrated contracts for copper, then adds more than 2%. world's second largest platinum producer Impala Platinum Holdings reduced the eve of the forecast production of metal for the 2009-2010 fiscal year. In connection with the accident and a strike at one of its major mining companies reduced output to 100 million ounces in the previously planned annual production of 950 million ounces. World production level in 2009 is estimated at 5.8 million ounces. Market Oil At the end of the trading session Tuesday, oil prices have remained virtually unchanged. Symbolic reduction in value of contracts of Brent was 0,08% - to 65.49 dollars per barrel, class WTI - by 0,2% (66.71 dollars per barrel). Today, in the first place, you should pay attention to official data of the Ministry of Energy as the fuel market in the country, traditionally has a strong impact on the quotes of black gold. They come out at 18:30 Moscow time. Market participants expect that crude oil inventories in the United States from 19 to 25 September rose by 2 million barrels of gasoline - by 1 million barrels, distillates - on 1,2 million barrels. According to data released yesterday by hydrocarbon reserves of the American Petroleum Institute, at the end of last week, they showed an increase of almost 2.8 million barrels. Day on Wednesday against the backdrop of a falling dollar market quotations of black gold grow by 0,4% -0,5%. Russia Market On Wednesday, September 30, trading on Russia's stock exchanges, probably will be completely neutral. No clear signal to buy or sell at the market now, no. All stock and commodity trading platforms traded different direction, however, with obviously more gravity to moderate growth, rather than fall. In the morning gently grow futures on America, the price of oil and key industrial metals. This is certainly a good sign, which should provide support for Russia's indices, but do not forget that in front of us looks forward to a whole block of statistics, which may change the balance of forces. At 16:15 Moscow time in the United States will be published data on the change in the number of employed in the private sector from ADP for September. In fact, the September figures are the first U.S. labor market, which anticipate the official statistics of the Ministry of Labor, going into Friday. It is expected that the number of employed in September decreased by 200 thousand, which is one third lower than the August figure (-298 thousand). Also today, the final figures come out of the U.S. GDP for the second quarter (forecast: -1.2% instead announced earlier -1%) and Chicago business activity index for September (forecast: 52 points, which is higher than the previous value of 50 points ). log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material at 2. Analyst Ratings

Finam increased its 12-month target price of ordinary shares VTB 14% - to $ 0.00175 per share, or $ 3.5 per GDR. Recommendation on them is reduced from hold to sell in connection with the growth of quotations. Analysts of investment company believes that the current estimate VTB does not meet the fundamental characteristics of the bank with a complex situation with overdue debt and low profitability. In recent months, the banking sector dominated by positive trends. Significantly improve the availability of funding. Along with the resumption of a steady flow of deposits, rates on the market MBC steadily declining. Capital adequacy sector over the last year has increased from 14,5% to 18,8% and is currently almost twice the norm of the Central Bank. We also expect a steady inflow of deposits into the banking system of Russia would lead to further normalize the structure of funding, - noted in the study of Finam . However, the risks of Russia's banks can not be considered exhausted. Despite an increasingly distinct positive signals, indicating the gradual normalization of conditions of the banking sector, we caution investors from reckless optimism. After a slowdown in May-June growth rate of arrears in July and August increased to a sufficiently high level - 10% monthly. Also We expect to increase pressure on interest margins of banks in the coming months on rising bad debts and narrowing of credit spreads - the analyst expects the investment company Finam Konstantin Romanov. VTB for a long time will feel the impact of negative factors. Due to the aggressive credit expansion in 2007-2008 Bank was among the most affected by the crisis. The consequences (expensive liabilities and relatively low quality of loan portfolio) would have a sharply negative effect on the activity of VTB, at least in 2009-2010.

Trading on the international currency market on Tuesday once again is not very active. In the North American session, the dollar has strengthened its position somewhat on the background of a weak publication of the September consumer confidence index, Conference Board (53,1 against 54,5 in August), but during today's trading in Asia quotes key pair returned to the previously formed bands. players still on the fence in anticipation of release this week is enough meaningful stat. data. In this regard, any particular trend in the market can begin to form no earlier than Thursday (published in the U.S. data on personal income /expenditure). players on Tuesday virtually no reaction to the positive statistics, out into the European region. Meanwhile, sentiment and consumer confidence in the euro area improved the sixth consecutive month. Sentiment Index in the economy of the monetary union grew in September to an annual maximum of 82.8. Indicator of consumer confidence also updated the maximum values of the year, reaching -19. relatively positive data out in the United Kingdom.

In the central office of Gazprom holds meeting of the Board of Directors. The Board of Directors approved the investment program and budget (financial plan) OAO Gazprom for 2009 in the new edition. Presidium of the company in charge of organizing the work on the implementation of these documents, the report said the concern. In accordance with the investment program for 2009 in the new edition, the total amount of funding investment of 761.53 billion rubles. that at 158.91 billion rubles. compared with the Investment Program approved in December 2008. This refined level of funding capital investment will amount to 483.48 billion rubles. (at 216.4 billion rubles. compared with the Investment Program approved in December 2008), long-term financial investments - 278.05 billion rubles. (at 57.48 billion rubles. more than the Investment Program approved in December 2008). The approved budget for 2009 in the new edition provides the decrease of total revenues and cash flows for 407.9 billion rubles. up to 3.3 trillion. rub., liabilities, costs and investments - to 126,8 billion rubles. up to 3.68 trillion. rub. According to the budget in the new edition, borrowings will rise to 214.9 billion rubles. to 304.9 billion rubles. The increase in borrowings due to, inter alia, the need to finance the implementation of an option to acquire 20% stake in OAO Gazprom Neft and 51% of OOO SeverEnergiya. Surplus funds amounted to 0,5 billion rubles. refine your investment program and budget for 2009 due to the influence of objective external factors that have emerged due to global financial and economic crisis. Among the key factors - the reduction in gas demand in all markets for Gazprom and the change in the price of gas, explains the company. In addition, the parameters of the budget of Gazprom for 2009 in the new edition have been formed in the light of the changed macro-economic indicators. investment program of OAO Gazprom for 2009 in the new edition formed the basis of the possibility of the priorities facing the company, with minimal cost.

migration of customers between insurance companies is becoming a mass phenomenon. In September, the UK became more active still lose policyholders: they often leave even the customers veteran, served in them for many years. Previously, such a repartition of the market was preceded by tariff wars and open dumping of the most aggressive insurers, now the prices for policies sycamores. Transitions clients come mostly for two reasons: because of nonpayment of the UK and forced banks for insurance of mortgages. Confusion and vacillation Most infidelity insurers - the fault of the companies. Reduced quality of services, delays and denials in payments, as well as the applicable regulator sanctions (suspension and revocation of licenses) forced customers to look at other insurers. Customers of companies that have lost their reputation for stability and are in a precarious financial position, now transformed into a more stable and well-known UK who continue to fulfill the obligations, - said DC Chairman of the Board of JSC Insurance Company Ukrainian Insurance Group Paul forbidden. According to experts, the ranks of refugees in September, increasingly supplemented by legal persons. Companies are trying to optimize their costs and obtain more reliable insurance protection, - said DC Chairman of the Board of JSC Insurance Group TAS Dmitry Gritsuta. Fortunately, to find a new insurer today is simple - the struggle between the companies for corporate clients turns serious. Privates same citizens to change the UK are usually pushing extreme circumstances. For example, the suspension or revocation of a license of the former insurer. In this case, the termination of the contract - the best alternative. Companies that stops the license, is unlikely to be responsible for liabilities. A UK customer can feel more or less secure if it has been a member of the Motor Bureau. But in this case, it guaranteed reimbursement only on avtograzhdanke. The remaining species are likely to policyholders not wait payments. the chances of a recapitalization or refinancing of troubled insurers at the expense of shareholders, new investors or the state is negligible , - believes Mr. Gritsuta. If the company is simply delaying payments sins, clients prefer not to prematurely terminate contracts, because such an initiative is fraught with serious penalties. Typically, they return only a portion of the payment for the period remaining before the expiration of the policy. Also under the terms of the contract, insurers reserve the right to retain from 20 to 40% premium as the cost of doing business. Thus, if the policy were more than six months, the UK can return to the Insured general penny. Insurance dictatorship second reason is the rapid migration of customers from the beginning of autumn - that pressure banks, which do not cease to put ultimatums borrowers. Since the beginning of the crisis financiers tripled nicety in accreditation SC, badly cutting the list of partners: the borrower has no choice, and upon the expiration of the policy he is obliged to change the company. Insurers complain that bankers are disproportionately inflated the minimum amount of deposits that must be placed to obtain accreditation. In some cases, when it comes to large financial institution network, the size of the required contributions reach 5-15 million UAH. and more. Many banks also insist on a quarterly replenishment deposits, opening of current accounts, implementation of salary projects, etc. course, no one spoke openly of imposing specific services the UK, and the financiers are trying to justify its selective reduction of their payment discipline. Against the backdrop of deteriorating economic situation, many companies delay the payment of compensation. The average time delay is 1,5-2 months, - noted the director of department of retail management Erste Bank Vitaly Pozniak. As a result, the list of insurance partners, many financiers reduced to three or five, or even a single IC, which has the exclusive right to insurance of mortgages.

Russia stock market on Tuesday to close rolled away from intraday highs, but succumbed in the black. RTS Index added 0.95% to 1,260.56 and the MICEX index 0.38% to 1,212.75. Stabilization of prices in the oil market contributed to strengthening the positions of Russia's actions. Islands of growth observed in the various sectors, including oil. Upsurge in the market caused U.S. data: first, improvement in the housing market - has pleased investors, but later the situation has tarnished the index of consumer confidence, which turned out worse than expected. The situation on the European stock markets was of mixed dynamics. Statistics within the region as a whole was of a positive nature, coinciding with or slightly surpassing the expectations of them, so the index of consumer confidence in the euro area has exceeded the forecast. Data from the U.S. ambiguous impact on the markets, since on the one hand there was the grown up beyond the expectations index of home prices, and the other players saw a sudden drop in the index of consumer confidence. The positive news for the financial sector, BNP Paribas decision on raising capital in order to reduce the state's share in the company. Papers of the mining sector came under pressure cheapening metals, and steel companies were down over plans to place Salzgitter AG convertible bonds to raise additional funds. American share platforms, started the day for the health, completed it on the negative territory. Bidders responded positively to information about the growth in home values that remove tensions that arose against the backdrop of negative data in the previous days. However, the decline in sales in retail chains and the index of consumer confidence caused the sale, which could not stop. Investors are counting on the improvement of the global economy, and the negative statistics indicate that their hopes may be premature. Above the commodity trading companies dominates the American Petroleum Institute report, which showed growth stocks black gold in the United States. Asian stock exchanges today are moving in different directions. Optimistic outlook NGK Insulators Ltd. regarding the profit Micron Technology Inc. supported the purchase in the markets. Statistic data on activity in the manufacturing sector in Japan, growing for several months, support for markets, but Japan's industrial output growth below the forecast value and re-growing and the yen a negative impact on the stocks of companies. Russia's stock market will open without any changes. It is likely that the MICEX index will again test the strength of a mark by 1200, as oil looks weak. Today is expected the next big block of statistics, which again can make a major contribution to the position of indices. Any negative now perceived as an excuse to commit, so it's possible a more profound drop in the index for 1190/1180. Above goal 1220/1240. log in and see the material;; 2; user rated material on 3,5. Analyst Ratings