spot price of gold reached a record high of $ 1,036.4 an ounce. The previous record at auction of $ 1,030.8 was installed in mid-March 2008, when on the verge of collapse was the investment bank Bear Stearns. Price of the December gold futures in New York today, also reached a record $ 1,038 per ounce (the previous peak in March 2008 - $ 1,033.9). When was rescued Bear Stearns, the gold market came semiannual correction, but then again it started to rise in price last fall, when the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers shocked market participants around the world and sparked buying of precious metals residents of many countries. Price reached the level of $ 1000 in late February 2009, when the Western stock markets have reached the bottom of the post-crisis.
Thus, the euro continues to rise. Today, shows a maximum at around 1.4747. Analytical belt explain the weakness of the dollar today the publication in the London newspaper Independent. According to information from the newspaper, citing an unnamed representative of the Persian Gulf and Chinese bankers, China, Japan, Russia, Brazil and the Gulf countries are holding a series of secret negotiations on the 9-year plan of non-dollar settlements in the auction of oil and replace it with a basket of currencies and gold. Today it was followed by denials from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Russia. Governor of the Central Bank of Saudi Arabia Mohammad Al-Jazeera called the article Independent totally incorrect and said that Saudi Arabia does not lead any negotiations with China and other countries to abandon the dollar in the calculations. However, in any case, just because such publication in such newspapers do not appear, and they reflect the weakness of the dollar. It should be noted, however, that even if written in the Independent is not true in any case such a publication was needed simply to give the market an explanation of how this way the dollar, which seems to be so confident grew up in the past two weeks, again began to decrease rapidly. Falling in spite of recent assurances from U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner that the U.S. needs a strong dollar, despite assurances from European Central Bank President Trichet, that Europe needs a strong dollar. We look forward to continued growth in the euro to a mark of 1.53 or higher in the coming weeks, and most likely the market will hear yet another unexpected explanation for the weakness of the dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar is falling (as we believe) simply because it consciously sell the big players, there is a clear trend at its fall, the correction is completed.
Let's not rush to the new shopping Tuesday trading on Russia's stock market are in high spirits. After a 1.2% gap up our stock indexes managed to dinner add about one percent (MICEX 1203.8 n; 2,2%), and then quotes the leading market went sideways. Higher oil prices (Brent 0,9%), strengthening of the ruble against the dollar (29,82) and the rise of futures for U.S. indices (SP 0,7%) - all these factors into account in current prices of liquid stocks. Reserve Bank of Australia today, the first of the G-20 countries tightened monetary policy and raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%. President of the Federal Reserve-New York, William Dudley, today said that the U.S. will not follow the Australian example and leave the key rate in the U.S. at a low level for quite some time. This partly explains the weakness of U.S. dollar exchange rate (EUR /USD 1,4735), the growth of European stock market indices: FTSE 1,55%; DAX 1,85%. And this despite the way, very weak data from the UK in terms of industrial output in August (-2.5% m /m, -11.2% y /y; forecast 0.2% m /m, -8.8% y /g). Thus, the spread between the situation in the real economy and stock market continues to grow. Returning to Russia's stock exchanges shows that inhibiting the activity of the players are concentrated in blue chips. But here, not seen more aggression in the bull, apparently simply because of lack of money. Mood swings yesterday in the United States simply has not been taken into account by traders. In this situation, we risk some time stew in its own juice on smoothly sliding quotes. greatest growth today show VTB shares (4.9%). Demand in these papers nourishes publication unconsolidated bank reporting under RAS for September 2009, which shows that the net profit for 9 months of this year amounted to 7.92 billion rubles. compared with a loss of 16.58 billion rubles. on September 1, 2009 Even taking into account that the resulting profit is paper, it is clearly a positive signal to shareholders, which gives a chance to hope for dividends for work in 2009 Shares AvtoVAZ (7%) continued strong growth that began yesterday. According to estimates of management auto giant, the plant should be in the near future a further 70 billion rubles. As the main source of fundraising is considered placement of additional shares. Of course, the conversion will help get rid of debts and major problems with its maintenance. But in order to evaluate the prospects of investment in shares of the Volga car plant is to look closely track record of today's management of AvtoVAZ. Behind them there are no achievements, but weak or non-performing businesses. Public money are eating well, and after six months, top management goes back to the Government for the new handouts, threatening social unrest in the region. This is a road to nowhere. Above all, this is a weak final demand for products VAZ at the current prices for products. Dramatically reduce costs and have to actively stimulate demand, the sooner the better. Given the positive attitude, the prevailing today in the world stock exchanges, we will continue to trade sideways until the beginning of trading in the States. A few words about the U.S.: despite the fact that the money will be there to stay cheap for some time, the restoration of the growing trend of the index S P500 can be made only after overcoming the 1050 level on, but until all the traffic is more like a cautious descent down. During the day, lock in profits from growth, the more we are not burning desire to actively purchases. log in and see the material;; 4; user rated material on 3,8. Analyst Ratings
Friday's failure in the market is practically closed. AvtoVAZ is growing on the flow of news, highlighting the tragedy of the current situation Automobile operation to eliminate Friday's failure on Russia's stock market is gradually coming to its logical conclusion. On MICEX left to rise by only 0.5%, while in Sberbank, VTB, LUKoil, Rosneft and Tatneft gepy October 2, already closed. For other securities speculative work of raising quotes continues. The MICEX index rising by more than 2% on continued strengthening of the ruble to the currency basket, which is already testing a mark 36.15 rub. Grown up almost 1.5% of oil and contributes to maintaining positive momentum in stock markets. Rosneft, LUKoil, prefecture Surgutneftegaz grow by 3%, Gazprom and GMK Nornickel - 2%, 3.5% plus Transneft, etc. However, the undisputed leader among the chips are by far the VTB shares came close to the level 6 cents, preserving resolve to go even higher. Optimism over the shares of the bank caused not only a backlog compared with the shares of Sberbank, but the positive results of VTB for September. Recall that unconsolidated net profit of the bank last month reached 24.5 billion rubles., Which could override all the accumulated losses since the beginning of the year. In the second echelon is still allocated shares of AvtoVAZ (9%), growing at a fairly questionable in terms of market information about the upcoming dokapitalizatsii company. If we sum up all the entrants in the last two days, information about AvtoVAZ, then develops a very hard-hitting picture - the company asked 70 billion rubles. dokapitalizatsii, suggesting dilution of shares not participating in the rescue of shareholders in 4 times, in addition, shareholders are invited to abandon the dividends at 5 years, and time out for positive cash flow remains unclear, as is the answer to the question of what to produce at the factory. Agree after such news is hard to expect investor interest in shares of the company, so the continuing rise in the papers Automobile seems to us unjustified. It is also worth mentioning the statement Shuvalov, hopes that laid-off workers AUTOVASE in 1-2 years will once again return to the enterprise. If we consider that the dismissal of up to 25% of the workers was welcomed by analysts as confirmation of willingness to address the enterprise management reduce costs and improve efficiency, today's words of vice-premier said that market participants are allowed a false start. While stocks AUTOVASE after falling from a maximum of 2007 (worth more than 50 rubles.) For someone and they look cheap, we do not consider them so. We recall that exactly the same amount they cost in 2006, but then the situation at the company was much better: at least a multibillion-dollar aid is not requested. If investors have a desire to play in the cloudless future AvtoVAZ, you'd better buy prefecture, which is almost 6 times cheaper obychek, although in current conditions have exactly the same set of rights. In addition, and additional issue, which would be appropriate to par (5 rub.) Does not undermine their attractiveness to investors, because now they cost less than the specified value. interests of investors now completely shifted to tomorrow's reporting Alcoa, which is Russia's stock market will have to win back as early as Thursday. Before this event, the markets will remain in limbo. log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material 5. Analyst Ratings
Dollar below 30 The American dollar is losing its way: the UTS with the calculations of tomorrow it fell below the rate of 30 rubles and amounted to 29.83 rubles. Thus, the American currency has lost more than 24 cents. The activity of the players at the auction was very high: during the session was concluded 1212 transactions totaling 1331.29 million, which at 176,943% increase over the previous trading day at this time. To mitigate the U.S. currency for several reasons. First of all - the message that the Gulf countries have plans to stop using the dollar for settlement of trade black gold, as today reported the British newspaper Independent. This information, incidentally, gave impetus to the growth of oil prices on commodity markets, and the growth indices Russian exchanges. published in the Independent led the dollar to retreat and to other world currencies: the euro would add 0.5% against the dollar, yen - 0,7%, the British pound - 0,4%. As a result, the index ICE Dollar, assess the position of the U.S. dollar to a basket of six currencies (euro, yen, pound sterling, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona), on Tuesday morning, has lost 0,44% and closer to the mark of 76.36. fall of the U.S. currency below the psychologically important boundary in the 30 rubles to make the Bank of Russia re-enter the bidding with active currency intervention. That was the last days of September: When in the course of the trading session at ETC U.S. dollar only an atonement for a mark of 30 rubles, and the Bank went up for auction and bought about 2.6 billion dollars In today's trading Bank of Russia has already won 700 million, what moved the morning rate against the currency basket with 36,20 at 36,15. log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material 5. Analyst Ratings
Stocks Buy shortovy ETF on U.S. Treasury bonds (TBT US) at levels below the $ 42.0 with the immediate goal of $ 48.4. Maintain long positions in ordinary shares of Gazprom (GAZP RX) with the immediate goal of 192.0 rubles. Preserve long positions in preferred shares of Surgutneftegaz (SNGSP RX) with the immediate goal of 12.50 rubles. Maintain long positions in ordinary shares Sberbank (SBER03 RX) with the immediate goal of 68.0 rubles. Maintain long positions in ordinary shares Volgatelekoma (VTEL RX) with the immediate goal of 70.0 rubles. double long positions in ordinary shares of FGC (FEES RX) in the case of reduction of quotations to 0.315-0.320 rubles. with the immediate goal of 0,400 rubles. Maintain long positions in ordinary shares RusHydro (HYDR RX) with the immediate goal of 1,140 rubles. remain open long positions yesterday in the December futures on the RTS index (VEZ9) with the immediate goal of 1300 points and protective take profit on a mark in 1214 items. Raw sell the November futures on oil varieties WTI (CLX9) in the case of growth of quotations of up to $ 72.5-73.0 with the immediate goal of $ 68.0 and stop loss on a mark of $ 75.6. sell the November futures on natural gas (NGX9) at current levels ($ 4.95-5.00) with the immediate goal of $ 4.20 and stop loss on a mark of $ 5.13. log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material at 2. Analyst Ratings
U.S. indexes were able to grow appreciably in the course of yesterday's auction. The Dow rose 1.18% to 9,599.75 p., index SP - on 1,49% to 1,040.46 p. One of the key factors contributing to demand the return of risky assets after a prolonged correction, was beginning a strong statistics as services in the United States. Index of ISM non-manufacturing after 11 months of decline, finally, entrenched at the level above 50 subsection (subsection 50.9), thus indicating the beginning of the recovery in the service sector of the United States, responsible for more than half of U.S. GDP. In addition, demand has begun to return and bank paper: by raising the recommendationsGoldman Sachs on the largest U.S. banks, the sector's leaders escaped to growth in the course of yesterday's trading (2.8%). Finally, commodity prices continued to slowly but surely go up, thus spurring the growth stocks of mining companies (2.6% at the auction in the U.S.).
composite index of Asian stocks on Tuesday increased for the first time in four trading sessions after the increase in value of the shares of software exporters, reported Bloomberg. Index MSCI Asia Pacific, taking into account the situation in 14 markets of the Asia-Pacific region, with the opening of the market increased by 1% - to 114.82 points. Over the previous three workingdays he has lost 3,6%. Hong Kong Hang Seng stock indicator rose to 7:57 in 0,7%, the Singapore STI - on 1,8%, South Korea's Kospi - on 0,4%. positive effect on investor sentiment from the American statistics, as well as the rise in price of commodities. index of business activity in the services the U.S. (ISM Non-Manufacturing) in September rose to 50.9 points compared with 48.4 points a month earlier. Experts forecast growth to just 50 points. Excess index mark of 50 points indicates an increase in business activity in the service sector, which accounts for about 90% of U.S.
Macroeconomic data, published on Monday, apparently, once again reflected the influence on the one hand, a certain slowdown in investment activity in the developed countries which has emerged in the second half of III quarter. On the other hand, according to this statistics, measures of centralized economic incentives continue to support the positive trends in financial and consumer sectors of the world's largest economies. index of investor confidence in the EMC calculated Sentix GmbH, in October of this year demonstrated the value of -12.6 points and was thus below their average forecast is equal to -12,0 Fri However, in the previous month, this indicator was at a lower level, -14,6 Fri On the other hand, the index of business climate in the nonproductive sphere of the U.S. ISM data in September 2009 rose to 50.9 points. The average forecast of this index and its index in August this year were respectively 50.0 and 48.4 Fri Thus, the first time since September last year, this figure reflected the processes of economic expansion in U.S. service sector. Formed in recent weeks, a relatively controversial background of the global macro-economic statistics, as well as uncertainty related to the upcoming, starting today, publication of quarterly reporting of U.S. companies at the moment, seems to deter investment in the market for corporate securities. However, the abundance of liquidity and the regulators to keep promises for continued long period of soft monetary policy does not allow, apparently, markets, relatively high-risk assets is against this backdrop of falling into stagnation. It is often published in the recent statements by officials that the period of low inflation in the world economy will be more prolonged than previously expected, seems to finally have supported investments in the commodity sector. The fears of investors about the importance of tightening central control on a segment of commodity futures declinedon this background and the market in this case, again a relatively active played a factor of long-term risks rising, cost pressures in the global economy. From this perspective, developing parallel to the relatively high growth rate of the euro to U.S. dollar at the moment, in many ways is a consequence of the dearth of significant quantities of fresh investment ideas. According to the players, the outcome of the Istanbul Summit the G7 issued U.S. currency, one-way ticket. In addition, speculative mood in the field of investment to sustain today's article in the Independent. According to this British newspaper, the Arab Gulf states are secret negotiations with Russia, China, Japan and France to 2018 to replace U.S. dollar in oil trading a basket of alternative currencies. In total, including - in the light of technical factors, the positive mood of investors of the market risk of investments at the moment dominates. Against this background, the EUR /USD in the coming weeks, may continue to increase. However, the risk reversal bullish trend of the euro, including the American currency in the medium term, still seems to not be underestimated. recovery of the European economy is very heterogeneous in its regional structure, it may take more time than similar processes in other countries of G20. Quotes RUR to USD and against the currency basket of the MICEX today by 10:30 Moscow time were 29.84 and 36.19 rubles. against, respectively, 30,09 and 36,35 rub. at the auction yesterday morning. Medium-term prospects of the dynamics of the course RUB respect, especially the USD, still represented as bear in nature. However, due to the continued high rates of price growth of financial markets in Russia and against the background of continuing low inflation rates RF implementation scenario is relatively significant weakening of Russia's currency on the international FX, might be postponed. The achievement rate of USD /RUB in October of this year marks near 29.00 at the moment looks like, in general, possible. Comon - the first social network of traders. Opportunity to learn from experienced traders. Sign log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material 5. Analyst Ratings
National Bank refuses to refinance Oschadbank, which should give Teplokommunenergo loans for UAH 1.2 billion to settle debts for gas, said Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Oschadbank can not solve the problems of the enterprises of housing and communal services alone. This situation may lead to the disruption of the heating season, say market participants. Yesterday, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko accused the president of blocking the repayment of debts Teplokommunenergo (CTV) for gas with credit Oshchadbanka. The National Bank offers 20 billion UAH refinancing private banks, to small, which reflect the interest of the highest tops of the NBU, and at the same time, the team head of state is not carried out refinancing Oshchadbanka the minimum amount of 1,2 billion UAH, - said the prime at the meeting on the preparation of the scope of utilities for the heating season. The National Bank could not comment on that, as many of his officials are at IMF summit in Istanbul. The secretary of the president believe these accusations to be groundless. I am against the fact that someone claimed that the president рулит National Bank. Such statements are based on the fact that the government controls the other regulators. Remember: the President was opposed to last year's revaluation. What kind of control? - Outraged the head of the main social services economic development of the Presidential Secretariat Roman Zhukovsky .- At the President's attempt to write off the mistakes in economic policy, while state-owned enterprises are used to fill the gap in the budget to the detriment of their future. In Oschadbank confirmed that appealed to the NBU for a loan to 1.2 billion UAH for three years to finance payments for gas, but the claim was denied. We were told that refinance only the current needs of banks with liquidity - the deputy chairman Sergei Oshchadbanka Podrezov. According Oshchadbanka Balance at 1 September, its loan portfolio grew this year at UAH 8.28 billion, mainly due to credit NAK Naftogaz Ukraine. In August, the bank granted loans to only 532 million UAH.