FOREX and Financial Crisis

           13.10.09 20:37 ;   Russia's share platforms have begun trading today countervailing movement indices. Last minute bidding MICEX Index dipped 0.5% to 1,350.62 points, the RTS index rose 0.02% to 1,428.38 points level. In the first hours of trading on Russia's markets have been on sale. Later, with the opening of the European sites, in the domestic market increased corrective mood. Their development and contributed to the falling U.S. futures. By midday on the MICEX index adjusted downwards by 1.5%. The leaders were to reduce Company's shares (-3.81%), Polymetal a (-3.01%). On the background correction sentiment to continue the growth of managed stocks Uralkali (3%). The company has announced that he can put on the balance half of the emergency stocks of the mine and continue their development. Among the blue chips much better than the market today look Gazprom shares. The main driver of growth served as a demand by non-residents. In favorites were also OGK, the growth of quotations ranging from 4,5-10,7%. In the energy sector, we see an attempt to forestall economic recovery in the industrial sector. Investors assume that together with the restoration of industrial demand for electricity is restored , - said Vladimir Ivanov (AKB RosEvroBank). better market looked Paper Polyus Gold due to high prices for gold. Today, the cost of currency basket for the first time in the last 6 trading sessions demonstrated a positive dynamics. The ruble has responded to the weakening of the inflow of Western capital into Russia, which has a negative impact on the securities of the financial sector. In particular, VTB shares have demonstrated more than 3% decline. In the afternoon, a decline of Russian sites took place against the backdrop of higher oil quotes, peaked at the time of $ 73.3 per barrel mark Brent.

EUR /USD first resistance level is at 1.4800, then possibly move to 1.4813 - a maximum of yesterday, after which the couple may be headed for 1.4900. A further aim of -1.5000. Support for the first level is at 1.4700 - the psychological level, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibo, then perhaps move to 1.4666 - 50% Fibo. Then to be 1.4630 - 38.2% Fibo. A distant goal - 1.4600. Resistance levels: 1.4800, 1.4813, 1.4900, 1.5000 Support levels: 1.4700, 1.4666, 1.4630, 1.4600 GBP /USD first resistance level is at 1.5800, further couple will go to the 59th figure. Then to be 1.5954 - 61.8% Fibo. A distant goal - 1.6000. Support for the first level is at 1.5727 - a minimum of yesterday, more couple will go to area 57th figures. A distant goal - 1.5600. Resistance levels: 1.5800, 1.5900, 1.5954, 1.6000 Support levels: 1.5727, 1.5700, 1.5600 USD /JPY first resistance level is at 90.00, then couple headed for 90.45 - maximum of yesterday, more couple will head to the 91st figure.

October 13, 2009 in Beijing during the meeting of heads of governments of Russia and China, President of JSC RZD Vladimir Yakunin, Transport Minister Igor Levitin and Minister of Railways Liu Zhijun signed a memorandum of understanding on the organization and development of high-speed and high-speed rail link in Russia, the report said Railways. purpose of the memorandum - the study and elaborate on the cooperation in the reconstruction of the existing railways to increase the speed and the construction of expressways and highways. This document is designed to expand the Russo-Chinese partnership. To implement the memorandum before December 1, 2009 will be a joint working group of competent professionals parties.

In the Forex market the U.S. dollar continued to retreat against the background of strong growth disturbances. Bidders are seriously concerned over the situation that has developed around the U.S. currency. More and more statements appears that the dollar is rapidly losing the status of the major reserve currency, but the press has already leaked rumors of some secret negotiations to replace the dollar basket of currencies in transactions with the oil. Nevertheless, the dollar is still fairly confident. Despite the fall of his quotes against major competitors and, in particular against the euro, which continues to test the 1.48 dollar mark, the U.S. currency continues to serve as the main reserve currency and is used in most international transactions, and the volume of its use does not fall even in times of serious crisis shocks. However, the situation continues to deteriorate. The very appearance of various rumors, with regards to the continuing use of the dollar as a reserve currency, reflecting the negative mood of investors community to the U.S.

           13.10.09 16:38 ;   One of the main objectives of the visit of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Russia, of course, is a continuation of the long-standing dialogue between the two countries about the situation surrounding Iran's nuclear program and the new American missile defense system (NMD). Today in Moscow, Clinton discussed these issues with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Speaking about sanctions against Iran, U.S. Secretary of State noted that a diplomatic solution to the conflict with Tehran, the most preferable, but the U.S. side understands that it is possible that such tactics will not succeed. In this case, America is ready to consider the option of imposing sanctions. But so far, said Clinton, the time for such drastic measures are not ripe. We want to explain that he prefers that Iran was working with the international community, represented in the format five plus one - the five permanent members of UN Security Council and Germany - Clinton said at a news conference following talks with the head of Russia's Foreign Ministry. According to the statement by Sergei Lavrov, Russia and the U.S. position on sanctions against Iran are similar. Russia, according to Lavrov, also very reserved attitude to the sanctions. They rarely give the result, but there are situations when sanctions are inevitable, when all possible methods, - said the head of the Foreign Ministry. We want to resolve all issues related to Iran's nuclear program that the country can fully enjoy their rights of non-nuclear member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and to enjoy all the ensuing opportunities arising from the use of peaceful nuclear energy - Lavrov said.

Most U.S. stock indices ended the trading in positive territory on Monday on expectations of a good season for the reporting of U.S. and European companies, through which the rally, has been observed for 7 months but can last, reports Bloomberg. SP 500 Index rose to a maximum of 3 October 2008. Quotations of futures on Tuesday morning show improvement: December contract on the SP 500 to 8:27 was added 0,06%, for Dow Jones - 0,09%. earlier reported that the Netherlands Royal Philips Electronics NV, Europe's largest manufacturer of consumer electronics, has recorded growth in net profit in July-September 2009, while analysts forecast a net loss. The second quarter the company has also been profitable, despite the expected loss. Positive results have contributed to measures to reduce costs and less-than-expected decrease in revenue. Philips net profit in the third quarter totaled 174 million euros compared with 57 million euros for the same period last year. Revenues decreased by 11% - to 5.62 billion euros. Analysts polled by FactSet, expected net loss of $ 41 million euros in revenue at 5.45 billion euros. The market will continue the momentum, - says the vice-president of Silvercrest Asset Management Group Stanley Nabi. Profit, which will begin appearing this week, should be very good, but economic data - quite encouraging, - he added. Shares largest manufacturer of construction equipment in the U.S.

In the morning we have seen enough of the aggressive buying in the Russian papers - an attempt to continue its rampant growth, which was observed recently. But as European indices launched signal lock in profits, our paper also began to decline. Fixation occurs on all fronts. Certainly, better yet keep the recent market leaders, which feels very aggressive buying: Sberbank and Gazprom. All other papers about the market, losing about 2%. In order to continue further growth, the market should be adjusted. This process of correction and now we are seeing. How it will last is still unknown, but likely, the players must let off steam and lock in profits last days. The current correction will not have a significant impact on the market, and investors who went for a long time, at least until the New Year, I think, especially not to be sold off. We just fixed the people who worked with his shoulder. And, of course, that the growth that we observed, was too aggressive. Still, one can identify the demand for electricity generation. Here we see an attempt to forestall economic recovery in the industrial sector. Investors assume that together with the restoration of industrial demand for electricity is restored. Therefore, the leaders of growth once the paper WGC and TGC. log in and see the material;; Your score will be the first! Analyst Ratings

Lukoil trend Short Medium Long-Term improvement improvement neutral The level of support 1800 - 1850 1510 - 1650 1150 - 1270 Resistance 2000 - 2040 2020 - 2130 2150 - 2390 Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices. Notes paper locally bought out. Norilsk Nickel trend Short Medium Long-Term improvement improvement neutral The level of support 3750 - 3820 3150 - 3340 2370 - 2700 Resistance 4170 - 4240 4250 - 4530 4480 - 4860 Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices. Notes paper locally bought out. Rostelecom trend Short Medium Long-Term neutral lowering neutral The level of support 138.20 - 140.70 127.70 - 135.80 119.10 - 129.10 Resistance 150.40 - 153.00 157.00 - 165.00 187.00 - 204.00 Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices. Notes ; Gazprom trend Short Medium Long-Term improvement improvement neutral The level of support 176.60 - 180.00 159.70 - 164.60 132.70 - 141.40 Resistance 196.20 - 199.50 204.80 - 215.70 214.20 - 233.40 Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices. Notes paper locally bought out. Mosenergo trend Short Medium Long-Term neutral improvement neutral The level of support 2.680 - 2.790 2.410 - 2.560 1.510 - 1.760 Resistance 3.140 - 3.250 3.290 - 3.510 3.520 - 3.810 Recommendations Keep. Notes ; Surgutneftegaz trend Short Medium Long-Term improvement neutral neutral The level of support 26.50 - 26.90 23.40 - 25.30 18.60 - 20.60 Resistance 28.90 - 29.30 29.10 - 30.80 30.40 - 32.80 Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices. Notes paper locally bought out. Savings Bank trend Short Medium Long-Term improvement improvement neutral The level of support 67.60 - 68.30 53.60 - 61.00 32.40 - 37.80 Resistance 71.60 - 72.30 72.60 - 76.80 76.50 - 79.40 Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices. Notes paper locally bought out. log in and see the material;; 3; user rated material on 3,3. Analyst Ratings

work in crisis situations is becoming the norm for Ukrainian companies. This is evidenced by last week published the results of the study Impact of economic crisis on the Ukrainian company conducted by Ernst & Young and the European Business Association (EBA). According to researchers, for Ukrainian business list of nagging issues remained unchanged for the third quarter in a row. In his stable include: declining sales, the devaluation of the hryvnia, the delay of payments from partners and customers, decreased demand for goods and services, the need to reduce operating costs. However, if in the beginning, the greatest company experienced falling sales, then in the second quarter over 80% of respondents recognized the most urgent problem of national currency depreciation. Everything else they are less worried. Thus, the number of businesses concerned about declining sales in the second quarter decreased from 65 (in I quarter. 2009) to 57%, delayed payments - from 59 to 49%. Ponderous fly in the ointment for domestic business remains a continuing decline in profitability and revenue from sales (about this have respectively 73 and 70% of respondents). The biggest decline came there in the building because of the crisis on hold about 80% of construction projects. As a result, have fallen sharply the demand for construction materials, reduced orders for the construction and erection works, - an analyst IF Interfon Victoria Kernesh. The top 10 sectors most affected by the crisis, economists also include metallurgy, chemical industry and mechanical engineering, who are victims of the deteriorating situation in foreign markets. However, some companies still do not lose hope to be in the pros. Number of respondents expect an increase of its profits, compared with 2008 has increased in the second quarter from 11 to 14%. Basically this is the company of those industries, demand for products which have fallen during the crisis. These include agriculture and food industry, which, owing to the devaluation of the hryvnia were able to maintain its competitiveness in the foreign and domestic markets -- convinced senior economist at investment group, Socrates Michael Salnikov. Against this backdrop, the efforts of companies to reduce costs appear quite natural. Most businesses continue to maintain the savings in the cost of marketing and sales (63%), administrative (77%), obtaining better terms from landlords /property owners (62%), staff reductions (54%), etc. The essential innovation, marked the second quarter was a sharp increase in business, concentrated on improving the efficiency (about 70%). The crisis has increased the need for companies to increase production efficiency. This is clearly reflected in statistics on gross domestic product: the value added in many industries is falling less than the issue. For example, in the second quarter of 2009, trade has dropped by 17,6% (year to year), and the issue - on 22,3% , - explained the DS economist Astrum Investment Management Alexei Blinov. One of the most striking positive trends noted in the April-June this year, was a small increase in sales recorded for the first time since September 2008 in the second quarter to increase the volume of sales, compared with the beginning of the year said more than 20% of the companies, and compared with the first quarter - 50%.

Last time, Russia's weight by the market significantly. Question offensive correction is becoming more urgent. Lingering investor I do not recommend to open new positions. Technically, this movement is almost a spent - the growth potential of about 10%. Today, our market opened not significantly reduced. Tone asked the price of oil, which at yesterday's close of the domestic market were higher than now! Asian markets finished the trading day in the Green Zone, exception was the Korean Index (KOSPI) - the decline was 0.66%. Information about the new tests in North Korea has caused nervousness in the ranks of the sister republic. Japanese index (NIKKEY) weight by 0,60%, the index of Hong Kong (Hang Seng) added 1,51%, Chinese index (Shanghai Composite) rose by 0.83%. The commodity markets have been countervailing dynamics. Futures for Brent crude, after falling in the second half of September once again grow. Now quotes are around $ 72.1 (0.08%) per barrel. As prices for gold is viewed steady upward trend, demonstrating the new historical maximum - $ 1055.4 (-0.21%) per troy ounce. Prices for industrial metals are traded raznonapravlenno: Copper (-0.21%), nickel (-0,13%), Tin (0,60%), lead (1.80%) and zinc (2.38%). The strategy for 3 quarter, we recommended to purchase common and preferred shares of sylvite, and shares an acronym. Silvinit was better than the market, Akron - worse, but also increased. Ordinary shares of sylvite from the beginning of 3 rd quarter grew by 58%, preferred - 70%. Akron shares rose by 18% (with an increase in the RTS index by 28%). We believe that the ideas in Silvinit yet developed, and in 4 quarter of the market's attention will shift towards the producers of nitrogen and compound fertilizers. Our recommendation - shares Ammophos and Kemerovo nitrogen. Ammofos (a fair price - $ 167, the potential growth - 119%) Capitalization: $ 685 million; EV: $ 511 million; P /E 2010: 4,2; EV /EBITDA 2010: 2,9; Freefloat: 7%. I Ammophos net cash in the amount of $ 174 million (accounting for 1 half of 2009, by the standards RAS). The company is very cheap at a market rate: P /E'09 = 5,9; prev /EBITDA '09 = 4,3. In addition, the company is cheaper than its capital balance (according to RAS): P /BV = 0,7. We believe that the risk of compulsory redemption of shares from minority shareholders by PhosAgro currently missing. Kemerovo Nitrogen (a fair price - $ 25, potential growth - 67%) Capitalization: $ 102 million; EV: $ 243 million; P /E 2010: 4,4; EV /EBITDA 2010: 3,8; Freefloat: 24%. Kemerovo Nitrogen is part of Sibur Holding. In our view, Sibur retains interest in the IPO in the medium term, so we do not expect unpleasant surprises for the minority shareholders of the controlling shareholder. According to our assessment, the company estimated a market rate of the market is cheap: P /E'09 = 7; EV /EBITDA '09 = 7,1. High Yield - the result of a successful trading strategy. Choose the appropriate strategy in the Trade Center. log in and see the material;; 2; user rated material at 2. Analyst Ratings