FOREX and Financial Crisis

Today, trading on Russia"s market opened growth, despite the negative external background, but in the future negative prevailed. Lower oil prices and statistics from Europe increased sales, resulting in Russia"s market is left to the negative territory. In leaders reduction Gazpromneft, losing just over 2%, the company which are Uralsvyazinform (-1.5%) and Mosenergo (-1.6%). On the positive territory traded OGK-5 (2%) and Sberbank (0.3%). By 14.30 the MICEX index fell by 0.65%, down to the level of 1470 points. Despite the attempt to open the market to continue yesterday"s upward movement, the Bears were able to seize the initiative and, against the backdrop of oil prices, with Brent futures dropped below $ 77, and the negative statistics from Europe, increase Russia"s platform on negative territory. Later the market there has been a slight adjustment that allowed by the middle of the day partially offset reduction. The main factor for future market dynamics will report Citigroup, which will be published before the opening of U.S. markets. He set the tone for the dynamics on the closure of our sites and to the U.S. trading session. If the report will be better than expectations, Russia"s market will turn around and the end of bidding to return to the levels of previous day"s close. If the report adds the negative, then we can expect that the Bears" support of the strikes at 1460 points and the MICEX index closed the day below that level. log in and see the material;; 2; user rated material on 3,5. Analyst Ratings

Lack of trades in the United States on the eve of a negative impact on investor sentiment. Futures on the U.S. S P500 index grows up in the morning, haggling about the same grades as yesterday. Asian indexes mostly falling on Tuesday morning, not finding new ideas in the events of the last day. Raw ground feel better, but there is not so good as we would like. Oil prices yesterday showed growth for the first time in the past few trading sessions, which had a tangible support to the domestic indices. Unfortunately, closer to the closing quotation of the two varieties of "black gold" had gone down. As a result, on the basis of the trading day Monday, energy prices have not changed. This morning Brent and WTI show weakly expressed negative dynamics.

Dynamics Quotes of the oil market on Monday 18 January to results of the auctions closed with a slight increase in price against falling U.S. dollar in the currency market FOREX, and also because of the positive trend of the stock markets and adjacent areas. At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the February futures price of U.S. light crude rose by 0.25, or 0.1%, and its price was 78.25 dollars per barrel. The exchange ICE in London cost of Brent crude futures rose 0.16, or 0.1%, to 77.27 dollars per barrel. Causes On Monday, Jan. 18 quotes on the market of "black gold" were closed with an increase in price by the following factors: 1 - a slight drop in the dollar in the FOREX market after economic makrostatistiki and news, 2 - to strengthen the stock of sites where Europe"s main stock index closed in green zone (FTSE100 - 5494.39 (39.02, or 0.72), CAC40 - 3977.46 (23.08, or 0.58), Xetra DAX - 5918.55 (42.58, or 0.72)) - U.S.

Futures on shares of OAO "LUKOIL" (LKH0): in the morning futures LKH0 is in the basis of 110 points, with a 13-00 Moscow time decreasing by 1,3% (Fig. 1). Fig. 1. History of the basis (within days). The number of open positions with the beginning of trading has declined by 2500 and amounts to 116,500 contracts (Fig. 2). Fig. 2. Changing the open position (within days). In the long term the market remains in a downtrend. The volatility of the March Putov "outside money" higher than the volatility of the March call "outside money" (Fig. 3). We are witnessing "volatility smirk", which signals that will soon resume downward trend. Fig. 3. Exchange IV (within days). If we talk about the number of open positions, the maximum number - of putakh LK17000BO9 (put max, Fig. 4) and Collen LK18000BC9 (call max, Fig. 4). Fig. 4. Levels of optional support /resistance. The most likely scenario: a reduction in the area 14000. Least likely scenario: growth in the region 18000. log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material at 4. Analyst Ratings

index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Nikkei (Nikkei) fell 90.18 points (-0.83%) and closed at 10764.90. Yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds is 1.330 (increased from the previous closing on 0.015). Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Haeng Seng (Hang Seng) has grown by 50.27 points (0.23%) and is located at 21510.28. The euro /dollar rose in the Asian session to the level of 1.4411. Support for the euro against the dollar has appreciation of the pound /dollar, which has grown today to a mark 1.6436. The market has information on what the U.S. company Kraft Foods Inc. is close to buying the British company Cadbury PLC for $ 19 billion. Currency dollar /yen fell to 90.31. Expected bankruptcy of the company Japan Airlines may increase the Yen, as companies need to recover their funds from abroad and buy yen. Meary China to tighten monetary policy, putting pressure on the rates of the Australian and New Zealand dollars. After Weekend in the U.S. today, trading volumes are low, which contributes to sharp fluctuations in exchange rates. Euro continues to remain under pressure due to investors" anxiety about the situation with the budget deficit in Greece. This week, investors" attention will be directed to the publication of financial statements of major American companies for the fourth quarter of 2009, in particular, banks Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs.

Yesterday, the dynamics of stock price in Russia has followed the market sentiments in Europe and in the domestic market in connection with a holiday in the United States. The MICEX index rose by 1,85% in the bidding, RTS index - on 1,40%. Yesterday, on the growth of new shares were leading metallurgical sector Severstal, TMK, Norilsk Nickel, Asha Metallurgical plant. Along with increased market shares of the banking sector, a number of telecommunications companies, oil and gas sector. On the morning of Tuesday, the Asian indexes mostly lower. In a slight positive territory remains the market in China, waiting for the publication of key macroeconomic data on Thursday. It reduces indices of Japan, Australia, Hong Kong. The U.S. market was closed on Friday near zero values, on Tuesday morning futures on indexes NASDAQ and SP show growth within 0.8 pm. Russia"s ADRs were in demand yesterday: the shares of steel and coal companies have shown gains, gold remained in the negative. Oil and gas securities moved different direction: Lukoil, Rosneft increased, Tatneft - negative. Telecom and e-power also shut down growth. RTS Futures on the basis of evening trades rose by 0,2%. Today publish the results of the reporting company Citigroup, and the results of Russia"s production company X5 Retail Group. From the macroeconomic statistics are data on capital inflows in the United States and the index of business optimism. view is not very data-intensive external background, the market of Russia may continue countervailing dynamics of quotations. Selective growth continues today in the shares of almost all sectors of the market: the market dynamics better than expected on the shares of Sberbank, IDC Holding. Dynamics of shares of oil and gas sector will depend on the dynamics of oil futures during the day. Morning futures are about $ 76.8 marks, down from yesterday"s levels at 0.7%. Grow up paper can be gold-mining companies in the preservation of the growing dynamics of futures for gold during the day (the price level rose in the evening, compared with yesterday. By 9:00 - adjusted to yesterday"s levels). There is also increasing futures nickel to $ 1906. In anticipation of corporate reports this week, and data from China, Russia"s market is likely to keep a positive attitude. log in and see the material;; 4; user rated material at 2. Analyst Ratings

last year for the first time in the past few years the country has been falling sales volumes of petroleum products. In 2009, through a network of local stations were sold to 3.6 million tons of gasoline, which is 3% less than that in 2008 most oil market dippedsharply in November and December last year, when the sale of gasoline at the gas station collapsed (as compared to the same period 2008) to 7,5% - to 580 thousand tons of oil in this situation behaved appropriately: in pursuit of the consumer at the end of last year, they lowered the price of oil by 40-50 kopecks per liter. Nevertheless, the new year, market participants have begun to raise prices. During the first half of January the cost of motorists favored A-95 rose by 6% - to 7,5 UAH. /l, the same amount has increased and diesel, which is now worth more than 6,2 UAH. /l. Dealers attributed this rise in price with cold weather conditions (accompanied by an increase in fuel consumption in the urban cycle), as well as the rising cost of black gold at the end of 2009 (10% - to $ 77/barrel). Together with this recently, another event occurred, which might well become the basis for more expensive fuel. It is about changing the basic strategy of the retail market - the group "Privat". Since the beginning of this year, it raised the price of its gas stations by 4% - to 7,2 UAH. /Liter. This was probably due to the fact that December 23, 2009 Cabinet abolished the technical conditions for the production of so-called components of gasoline KB-92 and CB-95, which are less traditional counterparts of high-quality fuel. Government"s decision affected more than others "Privat", since the Kremenchug refinery, part of this business group, recently started production of KB-92 and CB-95 in order to save on excise taxes (the rate of charge with the fuel components is equal to only 20 euros /t, whereas for conventional gasoline - 110 euros /ton). By reducing the cost of paying excise Dnepropetrovsk businessmen could sell fuel cheaper than competitors in the 30-40 kopecks per liter. Now, the above-mentioned decision of the Cabinet made the economy "Privat" on Excise impossible, forcing Igor Kolomoisky revise its dumping strategy. noteworthy that growth has occurred for the first time in the past few months has allowed oil magnates to tighten rates to forecasts of expert-analytical group on the functioning of the market of petroleum and petroleum products, which each decade counting the cost of fuel. Thus, in the second decade of January the aforementioned group forecasted price per liter of A-95 in the amount of 7,47 UAH., Whereas in Kiev and Crimea gas stations it currently exceeds 7,7 UAH. In Ukrneftekhimpererabotka upon which to establish an expert-analytical group, said that what happened more expensive - not the limit.

unequivocal attitude on the growth of today will not be Yesterday, U.S. markets were closed for the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. Futures for U.S. indexes and reached its peak last night, today in the morning somewhat lowered its temperature: SP 0,22%. Dollar exchange rate fell against the yen (90,45), but remained stable in the pair with the euro (1,44). Prices for Brent oil also ushili lower elevations of evening and Tuesday morning we see them at $ 76.7 per barrel. Today"s trading on Asian exchanges mainly take place in the zone of moderate decrease in stock market indices: MSCI Asia -0,63%. The December data on the index of consumer confidence in Japan showed a decrease to 37.6 against 39.5 in November. Negative for the local market and brought the beginning of bankruptcy proceedings of the largest Japanese airline Japan Airlines. Trading on Russia"s stock market today will begin a slight decline in the zone of quotations. Yesterday"s "bullish" sentiment in our market today will be resisting the urge of the players to take profits from speculative growth. The boom in prices for industrial metals market today in Asia, I think, will support the positions of the shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel. Due to the fact that this afternoon went a block of statistics from Europe, clearly the positive dynamics of our quotations and European exchanges, we can not see. At 12-30 in the UK leave the data on December consumer inflation (forecast: 0.3% m /m, 2,6% y /y) and the index of retail prices. In the 13-00 waiting for publication of the January ZEW index of economic sentiment in the euro area (forecast: 48.0) and Germany (forecast: 50.0). In the 15-00 waiting for release of quarterly and annual reporting Citigroup - it will, perhaps, the most important data today. In 17-00 Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the discount rate. In the January 21-00 Exposure housing market index (NAHB) (forecast: 17). log in and see the material;; 4; user rated material on 4,2. Analyst Ratings

Economic Chamber of the court of Budapest on the suit of the company Mabofi Holdings Ltd yesterday invalidated the decision of the Hungarian Energy Office (HEO) of 29 April 2009 on approval of the transaction to acquire Rosgas 100% ownership in the firm Emfesz KMT. This is stated in the message of the court. In support of its decision, the court stated that the VEO has violated legal standards because it did not request the required for a decision under the law "power of attorney from the seller to name the deal signed, authorizing the transfer of its share ownership, as well as proof of ownership relations, and management scheme Rosgas" . The court decided that the VEO has re-examined the transaction of sale of an asset taking into account the foregoing. Immediately following the consideration of cases Unified Court of Budapest decided to delete from the register of shareholders Rosgas Emfesz. Emfesz Company was incorporated in September 2003 with an authorized capital of $ 2.5 million Implements 3.5 billion cubic meters of gas in the domestic market in Hungary. The market value is estimated at $ 800 million Until the spring of 2009 Emfesz owned company Mabofi, controlled by Dmitry Firtash. In April, after RosUkrEnergo on Gazprom"s decision deprived Russia"s gas and ceased to be its supplier to Ukraine, Hungary and Poland, the head of Emfesz - Lawyer Stephen Gotsi - had a deal to sell the Swiss company Rosgas for $ 1. In early May, HEO registered transaction. Then Mabofi, whose representatives argued that the transaction is carried out illegally, filed in the Budapest Court of First Instance of the requirement of its dissolution.

Despite a lull in the commodities market and the output at U.S. stock exchanges, initiated in Russia stock market is fully captured bulls. As a result of trading the MICEX index added 1.85%. In leaders of yesterday were shares of Transneft (8%), as well as metallurgical sector paper: CMI (7%), Severstal (6.6%), Mechel (3.4%). Today, we also look forward to continuing to improve the game in the second echelon. Among blue chips, worth noting Gazprom and Lukoil as a market with good growth potential in the long term. Because of its "seriousness" and less speculative component, they are not so much increased in 2009, as the other shares of the first echelon. Also at this moment we are very interesting for investment securities wholesale generating companies. The aim of growth on the MICEX index is now a mark of 1500p., After which we will likely see some correction. Today during the day will be published consumer price index in the UK in December (12.30msk) and the index of economic expectations of investors in Germany in January (13.00msk), as well as sales in U.S. retail chains last week (16.55msk). log in and see the material;; 2; user rc06ated material at 3. Analyst Ratings