The fall in gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine on the basis of 2009 could reach 15%, say experts of Ukrainian investment companies and banks, interviewed agency Interfax-Ukraine.

Now it is clear that the final fall of GDP by the end of the year will be measured by two-digit numbers (at least 12-13%), - said economist Investment Company Troika Dialog Ukraine (Kiev) Irina Piontkovsky.

According to the analysis and research department of Raiffeisen Bank Aval (Kiev) Dmitry Solohub if a trend towards improvement in the global economy since the second quarter will be sustainable, the rate of fall of the GDP of Ukraine for the year are likely to be around 11%. At the same time when the world economy this year will be another significant blow, it was possible the fall of the country's GDP by 15% or more.

Experts

ING Bank (Kiev), saw no reason to restore the economy of Ukraine in the next three months, with a projected decline in GDP in 2009 to 14.6%.

Investgruppa TASK (Kiev), allows two scenarios of the situation. Under the conservative scenario, in the second quarter decline in GDP was 15% for a third - 12% and the fourth - 0%. At the same time, a pessimistic assessment of the dynamics of the GDP for the second quarter of 18-20%. In general, for the year investgruppa pronoziruet decline in GDP by 11%.

Meanwhile, in response to the deteriorating situation in the trade, on the one hand, and the expected activation of the grain market, on the other hand, it is likely that the values predicted third and fourth quarters may be revised, - said Head of analytical department invstgruppy TASK Andrew Shevchishin.

According to experts of ING Bank, the official GDP figures for the first quarter of 2009 will have a rather neutral effect on the price level of sovereign debt, because such a trend has already been taken into account the market. On the other hand, they note, the fact of their official publication, during the visit of the IMF mission will allow Ukraine to comply with another requirement of the Fund (ie, to provide indicators of change in GDP for the first quarter of 2009).

As reported with reference to Goskomstat, the fall in GDP of Ukraine in January-March 2009 amounted to 20.3% over the same period in 2008. In actual prices, GDP in the first quarter estimated at 183.217 billion UAH.

In February this year, the Government waived the rapid calculation of the dynamics of GDP, on the basis of the month, saving the quarterly statistics on this indicator.

Meanwhile, the secretariat of the president criticized a decision of Cabinet of Ministers, and later the IMF expressed concern about the delay in the promulgation of the official estimates of the dynamics of the country's GDP.

Team Leader Adviser to the Head of the National Bank of Ukraine Valery Litvitsky in April estimated drop in GDP in the first quarter at 18-20%. President Viktor Yushchenko in late May, said the possibility of falling GDP in the first quarter at 20-23%. Accounting Chamber of Ukraine in June estimated the drop in GDP for the first three months at 21.2%.

in 2008, according to Goskomstat data, real GDP growth slowed to 2.1% from 7.9% a year earlier, while in the fourth quarter was a record drop to 8%, whereas in the first three quarters of the growth was 6, 2-6,4%.

This year the government expects growth of Ukrainian economy to slow to 0,4%, while the experts, including National Bank, predicted a large-scale recession. In the IMF allowed the deterioration of the forecast fall in GDP of Ukraine in this year from 8% to 12%.