World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, held from January 28 to February 1, 2010, opened in the best traditions of the global economic crisis.
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renowned economist Professor of Economics at New York University, Nouriel Roubini, who predicted at the time the offensive of the current crisis and thus earned the reputation of economic soothsayer, made a new outlook. At the morning session of the Forum Roubini said the economic problems of Spain and Greece will blow up the euro area and two years later, the single European currency will cease to exist.
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According to the economist, the main threat to the euro is the financial situation in one of the 16 eurozone countries - Spain. Is it not better things in Greece. Economies of these countries suffer from imbalances in the sector of public finances, but also because of the declining competitiveness of their products and services. Thus participation of these countries in the euro area excludes the possibility to correct the economic situation through the devaluation of individual currencies.
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recall, the budget deficit of Greece more than four times the prescribed rate for the eurozone countries - 3% of GDP. Public debt of the country received more than twice the norm and is more than € 300 billion, or about 125% of GDP. This is the maximum value for the whole eurozone.
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European Commission stated that the steps taken by the Greek Government to reduce the state budget deficit, are insufficient. Despite the successful auction held on Monday on state bonds, in which the authorities of the country managed to attract € 8 billion on Wednesday, the yield on them reached their highest since December 1999 level. Resultant reports that the Greek authorities had asked China to buy bonds worth € 25 billion to reduce the level of the eurozone to a record budget deficit.
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The situation is really becoming very unpleasant for the euro zone. We recall some time ago the famous economist and Nobel laureate Milton Friedman had predicted the possibility of the collapse of the euro zone. As one of the reasons the expert called a significant difference in the level of the economies of countries in the eurozone. Today it is clear that this circumstance was the cause of all the current problems.
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However, the real decay of the euro zone to say everything else is early. At least, representatives of the ECB”s claim it is impossible (it would be surprising if they said the opposite).
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Theoretically, the easiest option for full recovery of the euro as the world”s reserve currency could be ridding the eurozone from the ballast in the form of economically weak countries participating. Return them to the national currencies would also solve the problem both within countries (through devaluation), and in the euro area.
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However, the path looks almost unreal, primarily from political considerations. Rather, the main steps of the ECB to tackle the situation will be additional emission, the gradual depreciation of European currencies, the moratorium on the introduction of the euro in the countries of Eastern Europe and the possible reduction in standards for member countries the euro zone.
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