Thursday, July 29, 2010

Ukraine at the last spot on the effectiveness of anti-crisis

Friday, June 19, 2009, 6:41
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index of the effectiveness of anti-crisis Ukraine in March amounted to -1.269 item that is the worst value among the eight countries rating, which is a Russian audit and consulting firm FBK. Recent calculations have shown us that Russia, which until then had been at the bottom of the rating (the previous valuation was carried out based on the index of the February data), left it as it rose from -1.048 to -0.258. The index also fell from Ukraine -0.819 item (in February) to -1.269, and it took last place. Experts believe that the FCO, the reduction of the index of Ukraine predetermined vast drop promproizvodstva and turnover of retail trade in March. The first figure has declined relative to the same month last year to 30.4%, the second - at 16.9%.

Struggle in Ukraine and Russia for the last line in the ranking runs from October 2008 and does not honor the two countries. With that in July and September last year, the country, on the other hand, alternating in the first place in the table (in July and August - Russia, in September - Ukraine). A high place of post-Soviet states in July-September due to a greater extent than the fact that the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures was then at the height, but the fact that the crisis in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have come with some delay as compared with western countries, - noted in his report analysts FBK.

Now, they say, among the analyzed countries emerged strong subgroups. The leaders - Canada, Britain and Germany - is not the first month have very similar positive values of the index. The gap between them and outsiders - Russia and Ukraine - in March, reaching an average of 2.7 points. Unfortunately, there is no reason to assume that the outcome of the next calculation (based on April data) Ukraine can overtake Russia. In July, will eventually know the dynamics of the Ukrainian GDP figure for the I quarter, which, according to preliminary estimates, amount to minus 22%. In Russia the figure is already known and is equal to minus 9.5%. BCF, with no data on the GDP of Ukraine in March, do not use them when calculating the index for the period. Now, for the correct display is happening in April, we will include them in the calculation. So, most likely, Ukraine is once again at last, - predicts director of the department of strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev.

However, if the indicators of economic collapse (GDP promproizvodstva) Ukraine ahead of Russia, then on such indicators as the rate of decline in exports and imports, as it may seem strange, inferior. For comparison, the March rate of decline in exports to Ukraine and Russia accounted for 41% and 53%, respectively, import - 45% and 61%. Despite the fact that Ukraine is on almost all macroeconomic indicators still inferior to Russia, to leave these countries out of crisis will be approximately at the same time, experts believe.

Vladimir Verbyany

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