USD

Not dollar celebrated their victory, because come Thursday, and it is time to gather stones. The only currency against which the Americans resist proved yen, which only confirms the emergence of the next wave of draft risk. And here there is rather oscillatory movement market, which is not certain that he would rely on, as economic data yesterday, is no excuse for such dynamics are not allowed.

The number of Americans who last week completed a form for unemployment benefits rose slightly, indicating that the rate of decline has slowed and the economy begins to stabilize. The number increased by 25 thousand to 584 thousand, which exceeded analysts' forecasts. As these separate study FRB Kansas City, in July, business activity in the manufacturing sector in the region remained largely Flat. The index of manufacturing weakened to 2 to 9 in July, but this is better than the May rate of -3.

So, slowly but surely we have come to the main report this week - GDP Quarter 2, which can determine future currency trends. At the U.S. GDP for the second quarter had high expectations as a catalyst for movement, as well as most major pairs for a long time sitting in narrow ranges and can not find the power to break out. But do not forget that Friday is not only the end of the working week (when many traders prefer to close risky positions or even to look at all the events from the side), but the end of the month, which only increases the flow of perepozitsionirovaniya and fixed income. This report will be more remarkable and that the Department of Commerce to include a revised control data, particularly on savings rates and incomes. The adjustment will be the first since the end of 2003, the result can be quite unpredictable: it is possible, the economy last year, felt much worse than we originally reported. But it could plunge the markets into an even greater depression, thus supporting the demand for currency of refuge. In general, the chances that traders will start buying up the dollar, it is very great, as great chances to see a weaker than predicted, levels of GDP. And that is why at least a little bit more optimistic than expected, the data can cause a sharp rise in the dollar opponents.

EUR

Quite predictably euro pushed from the support of 1.40 and rushed up: this is not a strong level of gore in some moods, not fueled by any real information. Economic data were mixed. According to the Federal Agency for Labor, the unemployment rate in July, seasonally adjusted suddenly fell to 3 480, while the number of free vacancies fell by 2 thousand in July, however, rates of unemployment were again distorted by the methodology of accounting, reported the Ministry of Labor. Without taking into account these distortions, unemployment rose to 33 thousand The rate of unemployment remains at 8.3%. Meanwhile, the real orders in the German mechanical engineering sector in June reflected a drop in again. The June decline by 46% led to a decline in quarterly performance in 51% to 47% in the previous 3 months. And the index of economic morality in the euro reflected the 4-month recovery against the backdrop of the improvements observed in all sectors except construction. Economic sentiment indicator (ESI) rose by another 2.8 PBC., Being the maximum for the period from November.

Today, the agenda will be July data on inflation in the euro area, as well as the rate of b /d for June. It is unlikely that the markets pay attention to these reports, given that the stock they have the American session. Nevertheless, the inflation indicators are important in determining the monetary policy of the ECB, and if they again point to the signs of deflation, it will be yet another argument in favor of the expansion of policies to mitigate.

GBP

pound once again in recent days to match the top of the range 1.6370-1.6540, with whom he can not cope. Today he has one last chance at this - the results of the GDP have sufficient force to move the currency in place. With regard to economic data this morning we received an assessment of consumer confidence by GFK /NOP. In July, the British consumer confidence has stabilized at the level of the previous month, remaining thus for a maximum of April 2008, but still - deep in negative territory. Zamershy index assumes that consumers have been locked in anticipation to see whether the effect all the measures taken by the Government and the CBR to reanimate the economy. Today's calendar is empty, so the algorithm of actions is quite simple - wait until the U.S. session, or go for a weekend /

JPY

This morning, Asian stocks mostly rose, building on the momentum of Thursday, when U.S. stocks and commodities sharply recovered in a return of interest in risk, but the auction for 7-year T-bills United States has demonstrated a strong demand of investors for these securities. The upsurge in optimism caused yesterday and assured the Chinese monetary authorities that they would not obstruct the active bank lending.

In addition, we received a series of reports from Japan. The growth rates b /d to 6-year peak hit in hopes that consumers the world's second largest economy will begin to reap the benefits of the restoration of production and exports. The rate of b /d has grown stronger than expected (5.4% vs forecast 5.3%), while the vacancies available to each applicant work fell to a record minimum of 0.43. Consumer price index broke its own record last month and decreased further, becoming yet another indication that deflation in Japan could strike a blow for economic recovery. The drop in CPI at 1.7% was the highest in the history of reference for the study since 1971, but was not surprised economists expect such an outcome. Net prices in Tokyo, a leading indicator of nationwide trends, also fell in July to 1.7% y /y, a record decline. And finally, the real expenditure of households grew by 0.2% y /y against 0.3% in May - 2 nd increment row. This is probably the only positive record corresponding optimistic government. Everything else so far indicates only that the economy is in very poor condition.

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