USD
And again pitching on the market. The long-awaited breakthrough and the trend reversal has not happened, because players do not fully lost faith in the power of the American economy. A series of disappointing figures from the labor market and a consumer sector still unable to reduce the demand for the dollar, although possibly a role in strengthening the currency and has played a flight from risky assets. Now traders are engaged in a guessing on what to expect from the nearest meeting Fedrezerva rates. Thus, all attention will be directed to the comments of representatives of the Federal Reserve, as well as data that may affect the tone of the accompanying statement.
On Friday we learned that consumer prices in the United States remains symbolic, since the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy restrains inflation. Taking into account seasonal adjustments to the consumer price index (CPI) rose in December only after the unrevised 0.1% growth in November at 0.4%. American consumers continue to question the health of the economic system of his country, as confirmed by an index compiled by Reuters /University of Michigan, who grew up in December to only 72,8 pkt. against 72,5 pkt. in November. Projections indicate a significant increase - up to 74,0 pkt. Nevertheless, activity in New York”s manufacturing sector showed a sharper rise than analysts expected. The index of general state of the economy, reflected an increase to 15.9 from 4.5 in December. And industrial production rose in December at 0.6%, as analysts expected, while the rate was 72.0%.
painting quite controversial, but one thing remains clear, that while the consumer sector is fairly weak, given the state of the labor market and the levels of expenditure. This is a very bad sign, since households are the backbone of the American economy. Calendar of this week is unlikely to clarify the situation, because of scheduled reports only data on flows of foreign capital, an index PPI, the number of new buildings and activity in the manufacturing industry FRB Philadelphia. Today, markets are closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day.
EUR
In the last working day of the week the euro weakened against the dollar, and it was a lot of reasons. On Friday morning the single currency has been actively selling on rumors of the resignation of Chancellor Angela Merkel. Then the media came Trichet”s comment that “in Europe, there are serious problems with debt, as well as the importance of a strong dollar.
And another blow was struck and economic reports. The narrowing trade surplus E-16 was due to growth in imports against a background of falling exports. Weak exports, once again underscored the fragility of the recovery, suggesting that the economic expansion in the 4 square. be very moderate, as well as recalling the negative impact of the appreciated euro. But growth in consumer prices in the euro area accelerated in December, and as a result of annual growth has coincided with a preliminary estimate. In monthly terms, inflation was 0,3%, as expected, while the annual growth reached 10-month maximum 0,9%. It still gives little hope that the price increase will still put pressure on the ECB”s governing council and to make incentive to abandon the regime. This week will study ZEW, data on business activity, as well as German PPI.
GBP
Pound recently demonstrated a more confident mood than the euro, which probably relates to problems in the euro area than with a high confidence of the British economy. Lack of economic data in recent days last week were only for the benefit of currency - we do not have anything negative that could upset the markets. This week, however, promises to compensate for the recent lull. We see reports on consumer prices, labor market, retail sales and financial condition of the public sector. A key event will be the same protocol of the last meeting of the MPC. All these actions will have a huge impact on the dynamics of the British currency.
JPY
Jena only one who was hurt against the dollar, which was the cause of reduced demand for risky assets. On Friday, comments were received official representatives. Kazuo Momma from the Bank of Japan said the likely slowdown in growth due to weak consumer spending. Novoyavlenny Finance Minister Kang reiterated the yen, saying now that the government can still intervene in the exchange rate, but only in the case of an extremely volatile market dynamics.
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