Friday, September 3, 2010

Overview of the oil market for 20.01.10

Sunday, February 14, 2010, 9:12
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Dynamics
Quotes of the oil market on Wednesday, January 20 on the basis of bidding closed with a decrease in value against the background of strengthening U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, FOREX, and also because of the negative dynamics of equity markets and adjacent areas.

At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the February futures price of U.S. crude fell by 1.40, or 1.8%, and its price was 77.62 dollars per barrel.

The ICE exchange in London, Brent crude futures price fell 1.58, or 2.0%, to 77.74 dollars per barrel.

Causes
On Wednesday, Jan. 20 quotes on the market of “black gold” closed with a decrease in price under the following factors: 1 - strengthening of the dollar in the FOREX market after the release of economic news makrostatistiki and 2 - the fall of the stock sites, where ” blue chips “Wall Street fell on the background of China”s intention to limit the liquidity of banks, reinforcing fears that global economic recovery will slow down (Dow Jones industrial average - 10603.15 (-122.28, or -1.14%), Nasdaq Composite - 2291.25 (-29.15, or — 1.26%), SP 500 - 1138.04 (-12.19, or -1.06%)), 3 - negative dynamics of the neighboring markets, namely, a significant drop in prices of precious metals; 4 - economic news - from China reported that banks were ordered to limit the amount of credit until the end of January, but the chairman of the Banking Regulatory Liu Minkail on Wednesday said that while banks were ordered to suspend lending in January, Chinese authorities will control the pace of credit growth this year, leading to a significant reduction in the issuance new loans in Japanese yen. Market participants think that this could lead to a slowdown in oil consumption, 5 - air temperature exceeding the norm in the United States, and surplus stocks of distillates in the market also had a negative impact on oil futures.

What to expect?
The main event of today”s trading session is out of data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products from the U.S. Department of Energy, which can set the future direction trading. The market anticipates a reduction of stocks of distillates, but at the same time, expect growth stocks of gasoline and crude oil. Among distillates include heating oil and diesel fuel.
Why worry?
The main negative factors in the oil market are U.S. dollar and the technical picture, namely, the psychological and technical level of 85 dollars per barrel, which does not allow to pass higher oil prices, thereby encouraging market participants to lock in profits on the open long positions

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