Dynamics
U.S. dollar strengthened on the basis of the Fed meeting, but later lost some of the conquered positions. When the pair EUR /USD fell below 1.4000 marks, the pair GBP /USD remains in the same range of about 1.6100, and the pair USD /CHF broke a mark 1.0500. Japan also fell against other currencies. When the pair USD /JPY back to a mark of 90.00, and the pair EUR /JPY rebounded above 126.00. Commodity currencies remain in the ranges against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the pair AUD /USD remains slightly below the 0.9000, the pair NZD /USD traded below 0.7100, and the pair USD /CAD remains slightly higher than 1.0600.

Causes
results of voting and the accompanying statement the Fed returned to the agenda of the expectations of higher interest rates, despite the fact that they were near zero. However, against this decision to vote one member of the Operations Committee on the Fed”s open market. In addition, the Committee reiterated that the intention, according to a plan to complete the purchase of mortgage-backed securities at the end of March, and to close most of the emergency credit line by February 1. Also, the Federal Reserve replaced the phrase about the fact that the economy is “likely to remain weak for some time,” the wording “the pace of economic recovery are likely to be moderate for some time.” And, finally, the announcement of the termination of the swap agreements between the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Swiss central bank also supports the view that the U.S. economy is on the road to recovery. Nevertheless, after the announcement of the outcome of the Fed meeting did not happen over-strengthening of the U.S. dollar, and after the futures on the shares began to rise, he lost some of the conquered positions.
meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand does not sprung a surprise. The basic interest rate remained unchanged at 2.5%, while the control RBNZ, Alan Bollard reiterated that if the economy continues to recover in line with the December forecast, it is expected that the leveling of the stimulus will begin around mid-2010. These events have not caused significant changes in the position of the New Zealand dollar.

What to expect?
Once the expectations of rising rates in the United States once again came to the fore, of particular importance facing this and next week”s macroeconomic data. In particular, the most important are GDP growth and the labor market. If they enhance investors” opinion that the U.S. economy continues to recover, this will further raise expectations of early normalization of monetary policy in a country that is likely to have very substantial long-term dollar support.

At the same time, figures published today also able to influence the position of the dollar. These include data on orders for durable goods and the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. This positive performance is likely to support the dollar, while the negative data will contribute to its weakening.

In the data from the U.S. are now expected publication of indicators on the labor market in Germany, as well as the sentiment index in the euro-zone economy. These improvements can have a short-term support Dina currency.

Why worry?
new macroeconomic data can lead to volatile and countervailing changes in the currency market.

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