Futures on shares of OAO “LUKOIL” (LKH0): in the morning futures LKH0 is the basis of 100 points, while reducing to 12-30 Moscow time on 1% (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1. History of the basis (within days).

The number of open positions with the beginning of the auctions has fallen to 1500 and was 134 000 contracts (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. Changing the open position (within days).

In the long term the market remains in a downtrend. The volatility of the March Putov “outside money” is lower than the volatility of the March call “outside money” (Fig. 3). We are witnessing “volatility smirk”, which signals that in the near future we can see how the growth and decline.

Fig. 3. Exchange IV (within days).

If we talk about the number of open positions, the maximum number - of putakh LK17000BO9 (put max, Fig. 4) and Collen LK18000BC9 (call max, Fig. 4).

Fig. 4. Levels of optional support /resistance.

The most likely scenario: a reduction in the area 14000.
Least likely scenario: growth in the region 18000.

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