breathing during the rally in the summer heat

Today's beginning of the trading on the Russian stock market, despite a moderately negative external environment, the resulting correction traffic to increase the American stock market in the second half of trading session in the United States, it was neutral, about 0.5% above yesterday's closing. However, further rapid upward movement in Russia's actions have not yet been received. After taking off the market yesterday afternoon, caused by the rapid return movement of oil quotes, market participants are likely to slow to fix the profit. With the opening of European stock pads Russian shares have continued to be corrected. At the moment, the main Russian blue chips on yesterday's closing has traded steadily in the red. As of 12:57 Moscow time the main indicators of the Russian market, the MICEX and RTS indices, traded raznonapravleno. MICEX index losing 2.04% (1024.97) are, as in the RTS index falling dollar shows a slight increase in 0.67% (1008 on). Yesterday's auction of the ocean again finished good growth: Dow Jones has updated the maximum value since the beginning of the year, breaking the local maximum of 9150 pp. At the end of the trading, Dow Jones increased by 0.923%, to close at 9,154.46 point p, a broad market indicator S P500 gained 1.19%, while its value on the closure of section 986.75 is worth noting that during yesterday's trading session on the closure of the Russian market Dow is at a level above level 9200 pp., so a correction first half trading session today is quite predictable. Dynamics of futures for U.S. indices, is an indicator of investor sentiment at the opening of the American market today, is neutral. Dow is in contango at 12 points or 0.13%.

Quotations black gold in response to the positive sentiment in financial markets, as well as calming the authorities of China, despite the appalling figures on oil reserves in the United States last Wednesday, have continued to rapidly move up and have again traded near mark 70 USD /barrel said that a dramatic reconstruction of the speculative demand of raw materials. Current value of oil futures to near ekspiratsiey are adjusted on yesterday's closing levels for the Russian market, but yesterday's relatively rapid growth of this correction is insignificant. At this point, futures for Brent-WTI and a are, respectively, 69.70 U.S. $ /bbl and U.S. $ 66.85 /barrel, about U.S. $ 0.8 lower than yesterday's values.

With regard to quotations of Russian blue chips, then at 12:39 Moscow time the main Russian blue chips continue to be corrected to yesterday's values. Thus, the shares of Gazprom losing 2.06% (159.40 USD), Sberbank of 1.93% (41,69 EUR), VTB 0.52% (0.0387 USD), MMC Norilsk Nickel 1,62% (EUR 3038), Lukoil 2,74% (EUR 1525), Surgutneftegaz 2,42% (EUR 23.96), Rosneft 2.22% (186.75 EUR).

negative effect on the market today has published the recommendations from one of the largest investment banks in the world of Credit Suisse. The Swiss bank has lowered the recommendations for Russia to above market to below market, which reflects the sharply pessimistic view on the Swiss continued to advanced growth of the Russian stock pads in the next few weeks or even months. If after Credit Suisse recommendations for Russian shares will depress the rest of the largest Investment Banks, we may be witnessing a substantial correction in the Russian market.

Among the most important news today is worth noting statements of Norilsk Nickel and Dalsvyaz, as well as reduction in the 2 quarter of 2009, VTB Bank, a third raised funds CB.

VTB cut into 2 quarter to one third of the amount of borrowed funds CBR. Replacement of expensive funding CBR at a much cheaper means customers in the second quarter of 2009 will result in a reduced pressure on interest margins VTB. We believe this positive news for the VTB. According to our estimates, the funding from the Bank of Russia is one of the most expensive liabilities VTB. We believe that funding from the Bank of Russia has been replaced by much cheaper means customers are able to attract the involvement of VTB as a credit agent, Rosneft and Transneft, with a loan from Bank of China, a $ 25 billion As a result, we expect to ease pressure on interest margin of the bank. According to our estimates, the decline of funding from the Bank of Russia for almost 200 billion rubles, VTB will allow annual savings of up to 20-25 billion rubles.

NorNikel published operating results for the first half we commend the published results, the company managed to maintain production is only slightly below pre-crisis levels. According to our estimates, the operating records, combined with continued growth in prices for major commodity groups holding should please the market.

Good reporting Dalsvyaz shows rather literate actions of management, than that the crisis in Russia affected the telecommunications industry. In any case, the results of the company are impressive - revenues grew by 13%, the share of revenues fromnew services increased by 29% and profitability has not changed. In general, the dynamics proceeds on the basis of half of the operator is at the level of our projections for the year - we expect revenue growth of 12% in ruble terms. EBITDA margin and net profit is not very much changed, but much more interest are the indicators, calculated on the basis of IFRS, but this type of reporting will be prepared only at a later date.

As regards the situation as a whole in the market, it is almost time for the majority of blue chips there is a short-term growing trend. The exceptions are shares RusGidro, Gazprom, Lukoil, and Polyus Gold away from the common, average dynamics. Despite the emerging market a local correction to the growth of yesterday, we continue to remain optimistic about the further development of a growing trend on the Russian stock market in the wake of speculative demand. With respect to the shares of the second tier, in this segment, we are still retains a positive view of the long-term prospects for shares in companies small and medium-capitalization, with a stable business model and a low debt load and recommend to hold the position long-term data on shares of issuers in the portfolio. Among them we note the actions of three growth potential on the horizon of 1-2 years old: Kuzbassrazrezuglya, Bamtonnelstroya, IDC Holding and prefy sylvinite. In response to the deteriorating fundamentals, we recommend that you sell shares Akron.

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