last year for the first time in the past few years the country has been falling sales volumes of petroleum products. In 2009, through a network of local stations were sold to 3.6 million tons of gasoline, which is 3% less than that in 2008 most oil market dippedsharply in November and December last year, when the sale of gasoline at the gas station collapsed (as compared to the same period 2008) to 7,5% - to 580 thousand tons of oil in this situation behaved appropriately: in pursuit of the consumer at the end of last year, they lowered the price of oil by 40-50 kopecks per liter. Nevertheless, the new year, market participants have begun to raise prices.

During the first half of January the cost of motorists favored A-95 rose by 6% - to 7,5 UAH. /l, the same amount has increased and diesel, which is now worth more than 6,2 UAH. /l. Dealers attributed this rise in price with cold weather conditions (accompanied by an increase in fuel consumption in the urban cycle), as well as the rising cost of black gold at the end of 2009 (10% - to $ 77/barrel).

Together with this recently, another event occurred, which might well become the basis for more expensive fuel. It is about changing the basic strategy of the retail market - the group “Privat”. Since the beginning of this year, it raised the price of its gas stations by 4% - to 7,2 UAH. /Liter. This was probably due to the fact that December 23, 2009 Cabinet abolished the technical conditions for the production of so-called components of gasoline KB-92 and CB-95, which are less traditional counterparts of high-quality fuel.

Government”s decision affected more than others “Privat”, since the Kremenchug refinery, part of this business group, recently started production of KB-92 and CB-95 in order to save on excise taxes (the rate of charge with the fuel components is equal to only 20 euros /t, whereas for conventional gasoline - 110 euros /ton). By reducing the cost of paying excise Dnepropetrovsk businessmen could sell fuel cheaper than competitors in the 30-40 kopecks per liter. Now, the above-mentioned decision of the Cabinet made the economy “Privat” on Excise impossible, forcing Igor Kolomoisky revise its dumping strategy.

noteworthy that growth has occurred for the first time in the past few months has allowed oil magnates to tighten rates to forecasts of expert-analytical group on the functioning of the market of petroleum and petroleum products, which each decade counting the cost of fuel. Thus, in the second decade of January the aforementioned group forecasted price per liter of A-95 in the amount of 7,47 UAH., Whereas in Kiev and Crimea gas stations it currently exceeds 7,7 UAH. In Ukrneftekhimpererabotka upon which to establish an expert-analytical group, said that what happened more expensive - not the limit. According to the head of the association Vladimir Emelina, at the current quotation of black gold price of fuel soon may rise by another 4%.

“The price of oil stabilized at around $ 77/barrel. When (autumn 2009 - Ed ..) it cost about $ 74-75/barrel, we had the price at petrol stations in 7,9-7,95 grn. /l therefore, subject to maintaining the current cost of oil to the end of January the 95 th may grow by up to 7,8-7,9 grn. /l “, - the Emelin. According to him, the fuel may rise in value more rapidly for several reasons. One of them - the oil dispute between Russia and Belarus, which can result in increased costs for Ukraine or Belarus fuels, or his temporary disappearance from the market. The essence of the dispute lies in the fact that Belarusians are insisting on oil supplies from Russia without payment of duties (in accordance with the Agreement on the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan). And Russia agreed to supply duty free only for internal purposes Belarus (in the year is about 6 million tons).

If the remaining amount (about 20 million tons /year), the Russians offered to supply with a duty rate, which varies monthly (for example, in January so, she makes $ 267 /t). This confrontation is still ongoing, and in the course of the parties have already started to use heavy artillery. For example, Russia”s Transneft said that may temporarily suspend pumping oil to Belarus.

If this happens, the country”s main refinery - Mozyr and Novoplotsky - will remain the same raw materials. Thus, we may temporarily lose its largest supplier of imported petroleum products (up to 2009 in our country was put about 950 thousand tons of Belarusian diesel engine and just over 680 thousand tons of gasoline, representing respectively 45 and 40% of total imports fuel in Ukraine). Place Belarusian fuel in the domestic market will take other importing countries. In this role may well speak, for example, Lithuania and Romania, whose fuel is comparable in quality to Belarus. But for local motorists such a change will result in increased costs of fuel. We have a ton, for example, A-95 manufactured in Belarus in Ukraine in large opte worth 8.99 ths., While the Romanian - 9,03, and Lithuania - 9,29.

Another impetus to the rapid increase in fuel prices, by assumption, Vladimir Emelina was launched last week the next stage of the devaluation of the national currency (by 1,5% - to 8,13 grn. /$ 1). However, please note that the projected head Ukrneftekhimpererabotka galloping rise in price of petroleum products in Ukraine could happen if the further increase will Privat. Otherwise, market participants are likely to simply do not dare to build the price gap with competitors from Dnepropetrovsk.

Dmitry Ryasnii

Board of Directors of Japan Airlines has decided to bankruptcy airline
Kommersant: Importers shorten
Ukraine may be new “Khrushchev”

predicting the real estate market square meters of 300-400 dollars …

Russia Market in no hurry to be adjusted, the money coming into the market can maintain its position
The level of support for fixed-term contract on RTS index performance in March for today - 158 950 points
The dynamics of trades within the day will depend not only on the situation on the oil market, but also on the news from Europe and the U.S.
In the growth leaders today were shares of steel companies, which is also supported by positive news about the Rusal IPO
In relation to many developing markets of Russia”s market now looks cheap enough
After lunch, the market of Russia will be possible to release reporting Citigroup, and which will form the basic dynamics of the movement of stock and commodity markets