Participants began the new trading week rather cautiously. Trading activity, according to the turnover on the MICEX (57.7 billion rubles.) Remains low. After a sensitive two-week correction parties are trying to find the contours of future games.
However, the market looks in general quite stable. The reason for this behavior can be explained by the situation on the MICEX index indicator ISI-Comp (980.36 on), which expresses the level of breaking even on all trading positions open for the last 9 months, ie since the end of September last year. In fact, this level of market equilibrium: at theselevels, neither the bulls nor the bears have not yet arrived. The three-day consolidation index near that level - too much proof. So, in the coming days should be expected out of the consolidation. We are in continued growth. Russia Sovereign spread after the maximum on 23 June (4.418%) fell to 4.257%. At reassessment of Russian risk indicates the steady decrease in the value of CDS (5Y), which during the same period fell from 367.53 to 341.74.
In addition, one of the technical factors of the growth supports the closing of short positions. During yesterday's session on the importance of the indicator OBV-5 (the net amount of the weekly trading positions on the MICEX index) declined by nearly half. After the break-even level of 20-day (1006.2) and 60-day (1017.6), the positions of the purchase may be amplified at the expense of restoring the positions of these categories of participants. Consequently, the breakdown of these levels for the idea to pass on the increased sales.
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Review of the FOREX market for 29.06.09