International Monetary Fund does not exclude the possibility of a second wave of global economic slowdown. Increased risk for the global economy are now cheap money flooding the emerging markets, which is fraught with the formation of these new bubbles, which at any moment may again blow.

Gold should melt

now a new bubble in the property market is unlikely because of the stagnant lending. The main danger of excessive growth remains on commodity markets. And above all, for the gold market. In 2009, under the influence of the weak dollar and fears of inflation in the U.S. because of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary incentives, the U.S. government yellow metal is rapidly more expensive. Since the beginning of last year the price of gold jumped more than 30%, breaking the barrier in December $ 1200 per ounce. The average price of the precious metal in the past year amounted to $ 972 per ounce (a forecast $ 881).

Dynamics of prices on the noble metal in the current year may be even more rapid. All interviewed experts predict that this year the price of gold once again beat the record “- said the report of the London Bullion Markets Association (LBMA). According to a study LBMA, the average price of this metal may increase in 2010 to 23% compared with the past year and make $ 1199 per ounce. But this is not the limit. In particular, analysts of U.S. bank Morgan Stanley believes that gold prices reached the 2010 mark of $ 1.3 thousand per ounce.

However, not all experts share the view of the coming rise in price of gold, believing the market is already overheated. “What is happening in the gold market - is extremely volatile inflating a bubble that will burst sooner or later” - says professor of economics at New York University”s Nouriel Roubini. According to him, only to return to the global economy of high inflation could cause a healthy rise in gold prices. Meanwhile, prices will not start again, gold is increasing in price because of speculation.

same view s1000hared by analysts of the Danish Saxo Bank. They predict that in 2010 the world price of gold will fall to $ 870 per troy ounce. Analysts say the bank, the strengthening U.S. dollar, which will begin this year, will cause a strong correction in gold prices and inflict a painful blow to investors who speculate on the growth of quotations of precious metals. Such a prospect is not very joyful and private investors, with enthusiasm were buying up gold in 2009, and by tradition - at the peak of its growth. In apparent loser may be left by those who chose gold as a tool for conservation savings in the short term. Therefore, experts advise to do “long” investments in the yellow metal - three to five years. After all, in the long term, gold will go back to growth. Projected to Saxo Bank, by 2014, world prices, not only return to the current bracket, but also made a mark of $ 1.5 thousand per ounce.

clear signs of bubbling can also be seen on the market of non-ferrous metals (copper, zinc, nickel, aluminum), and commodity and raw materials (sugar, oil, cotton). Huge amounts of liquidity injected into the global economy, have led to an increase in the cost of key assets in the limited investment opportunities. Index SP GSCI, a calculation which includes the prices of 24 kinds of raw materials rose in 2009 to 48%.

In the past year the stock prices of all non-ferrous metals have risen more than doubled compared with the crisis. The popularity of non-ferrous metals, investments in which the stability and profitability ahead of the securities and the currency market has attracted large investors and speculators. How to evaluate specialists Barclays Capital, up to the departed, the volume of investments in commodity prices hit a record $ 60 billion

But experts admit that in a future reduction in monetary and fiscal incentives in the economies of over-inflated markets could collapse dramatically, leading to an outflow of investors that flop over into other sectors.

Oil falls in the fourth quarter

next bubble began to inflate and the oil market, but grows old before they reach the critical point. Recall the summer of 2008, oil prices peaked, breaking the mark of $ 145 per barrel, then fell back to $ 33. At the end of the past - the beginning of this year, the price of black gold once again chosen to bracket a record $ 80 a barrel. While economists have noted that oil rose in price in spite of the objective of demand reduction caused by the decline of industry. The reason for the rise in prices was the resumption of active speculation black gold, which provided funds for state infusion in the financial sector.

In the medium and long term, analysts predict moderate growth in oil prices, however, are convinced that the oil bubble would not be dangerous. One of the largest U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts the average price of oil at $ 90 per barrel in 2010 and $ 110 in 2011. Analysts Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, in contrast to Goldman Sachs, believe that oil prices reach a level of $ 100 a barrel earlier, by the end of 2010.

European experts in their forecasts more moderate American colleagues. According to assumptions specialists Deutsche Bank, the average price for U.S. crude oil is $ 65 per barrel this year. At the same time, analysts of one of Britain”s leading consulting firms for Economic Research Capital Economics predict a price decline in the fourth quarter of this year to $ 50 per barrel.

157% in the stock market

Symptoms

inflate bubbles and experts see in the stock markets. Full decline that prevailed in world stock markets in early 2009, optimism was replaced in March, whi1000ch continued to prevail until the end of the year. As a result, from March to December 2009 the Dow Jones index rose more than 60%, SP 500 - 75%. Growth in emerging markets and does beat all records. According to preliminary data, Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR), inflows into funds that invest in shares of emerging markets, in 2009 was a record $ 64.5 billion in bonds - more than $ 8 billion, “Prices of risky assets grow too much, too early and too fast compared with the pace of improvement in fundamental economic factors, “- said Nouriel Roubini.

One of the most likely candidates at risk to make bubbles, and not only in equity markets, but also real estate and commodities - China is actively initiated program to stimulate the economy. Since September 2008, Beijing cut interest rates five times, which led to the issuance in 2009, a record number of loans totaling over $ 1.3 trillion. The increase in lending led to an increase in domestic spending in China by a decline in global demand for Chinese exports and restore economic growth in the country. Influx of credit has led to an increase in the stock in the Shanghai Composite up 83% since the beginning of the year.

“The potential risk lies in the fact that most of the liquidity goes into asset markets. Therefore, there are bubbles in the commodity markets, stocks and real estate”, - stated the vice-president of Bank of China Zhu Ming.

However, to prevent possible negative consequences, China has already ventured on unpopular measures. Celestial Central Bank raised the basic rate of compulsory reserves for banks by 50 basis points (the new rates come into force on 18 January). Usually norm contributions to reserves increases if the central bank wants to warn the financiers of the possibility of overheating the economy and reduce the level of liquidity in the banking sector. Thus, analysts polled by Reuters, believes that the new initiative will be removed from the economy from 200 to 300 billion yuan (U.S. $ 29-44 billion), but its stable development of the economy need to remove 700-800 billion yuan.

Equally soared and stock indexes other developing countries. “From February to March to December 2009 the Brazilian stock market rose by 87,7%, Ukrainian - 157% (PFTS index), Russia - 263% (the RTS), India - 201%. In our opinion, the Ukrainian, Indian and especially Russia”s stock markets appeared unambiguous signs of a bubble. These results could lead to data collapse of stock markets, which could start a new wave of crisis in these countries. The growth of emerging markets assets to 200-250% for 10 months in a slight recovery in industrial production and GDP inappropriate. Investments in these markets are very risky, “- notes Nikolay Ivchenko.

growth in the stock markets gives the opportunity to venture citizens earn by investing in investment funds or playing the stock market itself. The main thing - time to withdraw funds before the dramatic collapse.

While some experts assert that the reason to panic yet. “Many developing countries have gone through a crisis with small losses or even improve their economic position. At the same time, liquidity in the financial markets of emerging markets following the West, which leads to their high volatility. That is the beginning of the crisis in emerging markets assets fell in value more rapidly western , but also to restore them as a rapid “- explains the dizzying growth of stock indices Sergei Nevmerzhitskaya.

According to Frederic Mishkin, a Columbia University professor, the current bubble, inflated in some markets, less dangerous than are formed before the first wave of the global crisis.

“The formation of the current bubble is not accompanied by cyclical intensification of creditbdesecured by assets rising in price. In the absence of a credit bubble collapse of bubbles is not paralyze the financial system, and thus causes much less damage,” - he explains.

Tatiana Ochimovskaya

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