Two years ago (before the crisis), the majority of Ukrainian citizens rather soft on the activities of the NBU, porugivaya it, of course, the exchange rate shocks (often unfair, but also unfair to take off his responsibility for inflation). In autumn 2009 the situation changed. The credibility of the NBU started to crumble, as, indeed, the credibility of financial and banking system as a whole. Because of the authority, which generally trusted as people, and business, the NBU in the eyes of the “small” Ukrainians became the main destroyer of the monetary and financial system of Ukraine and the value of the hryvnia. Begun a witch-hunt “. To understand that, “who is to blame and what to do, you need to analyze the activities of the NBU in emergency preparedness,” normal “situation and compare it with conventional methods of central banks in the civilized countries. When the crisis hit, the National Bank, unfortunately, came to politics, and not only …

course analysis of the NBU would be incomplete without an analysis of the policy of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine as the second of the major organs of the central monetary authorities of the country, responsible for cost savings, equitable distribution (redistribution) and augmentation of the financial wealth of citizens through its focus on lending and investing primarily in the real sector of economy of Ukraine.

financial system of Ukraine will be another article, but now I want to note a fundamental shortcoming of these systems - injustice. Emphasize the monetary and financial system of the country are unfair and even immoral …

start with an example in the banking sector. In the country in 2009 became insolvent (bankrupt candidates) 18 banks. The three decided to recapitalize the bank (save) at the expense of the state (ie taxpayers money), two more “attached” to one of the first three - “RODOVID.” Consider the reality: there are three companies that before the crisis to raise funds (say, 10 million) in the accounts of their banks for the payment of wages. The first plant opened by a trio of banks-the lucky ones. Second - in pair of banks, it would seem, poluschastlivtsev. Third - in one of the 13 rogue out of the 18 insolvent. Question: Which of these three companies will receive money
back and pay the salary? Answer the following. First - will soon be all the money with a probability of 100%. Second - do not get anything with a probability of 99% (accession does not apply to legal persons - clients of the bank). Third - do not get anything with a probability of 90% - about the experience of the liquidation of banks in Ukraine.

Or another case (also real). The oligarch has a deposit of $ 10 million in one of three banks that have decided to recapitalize (I repeat, at taxpayers” expense). The pensioner, who sold an apartment for 150 thousand dollars, decided to put them in one of the banks in the third group on deposit in anticipation of a complex operation and treatment. Question: Who will help the state? Of course, the oligarch! He will get back all their money (from taxpayers). Do not forget state and pensioners - approximately one and a half, he also receives 150 thousand, only hryvnia. If, of course, survive …

third example. Millionaire, pension fund and the enterprise society, blind people had accounts at a bank that failed by 100 thousand UAH. Question: Who gets the money back? Course, a millionaire! He will get his 100 thousand, but pensioners and the blind will not get anything … The rights of legal entities we have not reserved any way!

do not want to further describe the real situation, for example, about how to allocate funds to refinance the banks, or shared currency resources. There, the rules of logic and justice you also find. The best adjectives to describe such a banking system will be cynicism and immorality.

But we should not think that our fiscal system is worthy of other words. Let us take, for example, the pension system, which is bursting at the seams, and disrupts the state budget. Start with an example: two pensioners - citizens of Ukraine to the seniority of 40 years, retired with the same salary for the last ten years may receive a pension: one - 1000 UAH. And another - 50 ths.!

Furthermore, you can retire in 45 years, and 50, and 60, receive 20 thousand grn. pensions, still have excellent health and still working two jobs with an income 100 thousand UAH.! You can earn 80 thousand UAH. month and do not make contributions to the pension fund (and do more than a million “ChPshnikov”, and not only them). You can be the lowest in the world of retirement age, the lowest wages in Europe and the world”s highest state pensions and benefits “state elite”, which is also on the size order of magnitude greater than in the civilized world!

very “touching” in this context, it looks like the opposition representatives of the “state elite, to ensure themselves an average monthly pension from 25 to 75 thousand UAH. try to storms in January under the walls of the Cabinet of Ministers to organize meetings of pensioners (but worth it reason about a dozen students) with a call to raise the normal pension at 600 —
700 UAH. 10-15% and thus increase the number of wealthy people who do not makepayments to the pension fund at all!

But the situation looks particularly cynical, when a retired couple from the “state elite” ( “she” aged 55 years and “he” - 60) with a total pension 50 thousand UAH. a month thinking about what is best to buy - a third car or second cottage. And at this time is not less than 40 (!) Of young families with children whose family income on average of 4 thousand UAH. Should fund this retirement haven for the elite. Truly a feast during the plague.

All the talk about the fact that life expectancy for men in Ukraine is 62 years old, have nothing to do with the normal retirement age: 65 years for men and women. You have to understand that our 60-year-old man likely to live to 80 years, almost the same as in France or the United States. The main reason for low life expectancy - high infant mortality, crime, drunkenness. What is not surprising at such an absurd system, when one impoverished operating funds are even more than one pensioner!

high time to eliminate all the special pension system, to make all retirees equal. Want a great retirement - there is pension insurance or deduct private pension fund, invest in their future. You can give many more such examples. Why are only the problems of finance “Naftogaz” …

Our banking and financial systems are so grossly and crudely constructed, that move to the next, more professional level of analysis is difficult, but necessary. In the meantime, it is important to remember that if the activities of the monetary and financial authorities (and this is NBU and Finance Ministry) is not based on the principle of social justice, including justice between generations, then this power as a matter of fact, and in the eyes of the citizens is immoral power gang of robbers . So ordinary people and perceived power.

Who is to blame?

Even before the crisis, NBU activity was significantly different from the activities of other central banks as against the target functions, and on methods of monetary policy. But more on the principles and style of such policies.

I want to be forewarned that the following assessment - it is not a criticism of staff or even the NBU leadership. This - statement of facts. As, however, finding and the fact that the NBU is still concentrates in itself the most qualified staff of the country and represents the most organized and capable state machine. Which can send its potential as for the good of the country, and on conservation of the situation, maintaining the status quo of the permanent crisis …

I”ll start with the main objective of the NBU, which is in accordance with the law as its main task, unlike other central banks of Europe, sees the stability of the national currency. That is responsible for the course (for which he was asked to) and inflation (for which he was not asked to, the claim, often unfairly, to the Government). In most European countries, central banks are responsible for price stability. I want to say that to control inflation, they are very successful. In some countries, such as the U.S., the Fed is responsible both for price stability, and support for the country”s economy by combating unemployment.

methods of conducting monetary policy more NBU taken away from other, more successful central banks. It dominates the policy of inflation targeting, which takes place through changes in interest rates. When you need to stimulate the economy and saturate it with cheap credit resources of central banks (that is to be done in Ukraine and what is being done in all countries), interest rates, central banks reduced (now in the EU and the U.S., they are at the level 0,25-1 %). These rates of any bank, which performs standards and has a liquid bond (as a rule, these securities are rated AA or AAA), may take funds from the central bank for two weeks - money supply growth. If the bank has too much money, he can place them on deposit with the central bank at a rate slightly below the base interest rate.

If the central bank believes that the economy is “overheated” (an important indicator of this is the level and dynamics of inflation), he raises, thereby making loans to commercial banks more expensive and difficult - the money supply shrinks. I want to emphasize that this mechanism works like a clock, without the intervention of officials, without preference or exceptions for certain banks. Rules for all alone.

Our situation is different. Interest rate does not work, the rules change, moreover, the exception becomes the rule … To regulate the money supply NBU frequently changing regulations on compulsory reserves for passive operation, and the rules of accounting (the worst method of regulating the money supply). In addition, spontaneous operations with currency interventions, and more recently - with the Government Bonds (often in order to “rescue” the government) creates a situation where it suggestion hryvnia increases sharply, then “suddenly” drops and she (UAH) becomes scarce. Such conditions not only help banks to their major active function - to lend to the economy and population (in 2009 lending fell by 2,1%), and vice versa, forcing them to engage in a “defensive” operations, with the most “close” the banks in such conditions are windfall to arbitrage …

important function of central banks is to oversee the activities of commercial banks to minimize their risks, which are easily transformed into the risks of the country (the world financial crisis is a vivid confirmation of that). In civilized countries have primary control over the activities of banks perform auditing companies with good reputation (as a rule, this “Big Four”). Employees of the central banks are studying reports of auditors, compare them with records of banks, prudential regulations, if necessary - to organize field tests. In Ukraine, the NBU auditors - not assistants … Surveillance is mainly based on the landings of inspection (much like tax audits), which, by their professional level is far behind as the audience “Big Four” and specialists of commercial banks. As a result, the bank three to four weeks is not working, it imposed various restrictions and obligations, which in the end, “resolved” without the drastic consequences even for the “banks” and credit unions are not pulling …

numerous heavy daily reporting banks with hundreds of useless indicators only creates the illusion of control and reduces the productivity of institutions.

crisis showed the real quality of its loan portfolio and the quality of supervision of Ukrainian banks, as well as the need for the forced transition to the European model of supervision that can be done in just a few months, ending, finally, the transition to international accounting standards. For banks - is mainly the refusal of “home-grown” methods of formation of reserves for active operations and the transition to the European system, which perfectly mastered the auditors. Incidentally, this will significantly reduce the strength of the NBU and improve the quality of supervision. Will also be closed for another three or four socially dangerous kvazibanka.

National Bank of Ukraine is also responsible for the movement of capital, balance of payments, which means - and the financial risks of the country, its financial stability.

financial stability of the country is closely related to the adequacy of the rate of lending to it, the structure of credit, capital inflows and outflows. The quality of this function might indicate the NBU data table. 3.

Unfortunately, Ukraine is one of the first places in the world in the ratio of foreign currency loans (50%), as well as securitization of loans is not at the expense of domestic deposits, and from external sources (50%). This suggests that the methods of achieving financial stability of the banking system and countries need to drastically change. We must renounce the formal prohibitions (for example, the prohibition of currency crediting!) Or from the senseless and bureaucratic restrictions, licenses, permits for the movement of capital. The crisis showed the ineffectiveness of such tools. They essentially archaic and inefficient.

must go to competent risk assessment to minimize them in the first place due to currency hedging instruments, the development of long-term currency swaps and accounting of all the risks in the capital of banks and other nonbank financial institutions. Incidentally, it was envisaged in the draft law on currency regulation, designed and made by the Verkhovna Rada as early as 2008 members Voropayev, Prasolov and Khomutynnik. If this law was then adopted, the crisis would not have been as severe. But populism individual MPs and would-be bankers to prevent this.

It will be seen that even before the crisis, the methods of monetary, exchange rate policies, as well as policy oversight differed significantly from the generally accepted in the civilized world, and not for the better (I repeat, is that even with this in mind, I think, that the NBU is still the strongest and most organized team in the country). During the crisis, the activities of the NBU was sufficiently analyzed in detail by many: from the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko and ending with me, including the pages of The Mirror of the week.

What to do?

can be a long time to describe the problem of the NBU, analyzing its successes and failures, but the problem in another - to go forward. And not so much a criticism as constructive to offer, realizing that without the forced reform of the NBU, we not only overcome the approximately 5-10-year lag from our neighbors (including, among other things, and Belarus), but not to restore people”s trust and business the banking system. And without that trust can not dream not that the high rates of growth, but even to withdraw from the crisis in 2010. Even if the government headed by a reformer.

should begin with the Constitution. It is naive to think that in the twenty-first century (as, indeed, and XX), a constitution written to protect the interests of ordinary people. As a rule, there were several empty, but all-encompassing promises for which no one answers. But at the same time, issues such as capture, share, or save power, dedicated 90% of articles. It is for this “state elite” and writes or revises the Constitution. If you change it to ordinary people, it is their representatives and must do so in spite of power: through the structures of civil society, new parties, new leaders.

If we return to the NBU, then its main function should be considered the stability of the financial system, maintaining the value of its currency and support the growth of the economy. This complex objective function NBU needs to write into the Constitution. It will tie together the central bank and the government, while maintaining and even strengthening the independence of the NBU, and not only from governments but also from the president. To explain what the central bank”s independence, give a fact of life of the outstanding chapters Fed, Paul Volcker. When Ronald Reagan was elected president of the United States, he wanted to meet with the head of the Fed. But Reagan was advised not to invite the Volcker in the White House, because it can be seen by them as pressure on the Fed, and most visit the central bank. But the president did not heed the advice. Volcker”s answer was negative … After several weeks of negotiations, Reagan and Volcker met with the Ministry of Finance … Reagan Volcker valued for their professionalism, and after the 1983 term of his candidacy Volcker was filed for a second term, even though he was in the opposition party!

Однако большая независимость НБУ предполагает и большую ответственность, и контроль со стороны как Верховной Рады, так и общественности. Отчеты главы Национального банка в парламенте и комитете должны быть регулярными.

Вторым направлением реформ НБУ должна стать его большая открытость и прозрачность всех ключевых решений, которые бы полностью исключали репутационные риски. Прежде всего речь идет о публикации решений правления, которые касаются его политики. А также о раскрытии механизмов и условий рефинансирования, валютных интервенций, свопирования и прочего, устранения из этих процессов “человеческого фактора”. Сколько бы вопросов снял открытый конкурс по назначению ликвидаторов банков и Ñ‚.п.! Такие нововведения требуют изменений в законах Украины “О Национальном банке Украины” и “О банках и банковской деятельности”. Особенно это касается банковской тайны, которая вместо того, чтобы защищать права клиентов, стала защищать делишки чиновников и воров…

Третьим направлением усовершенствования деятельности НБУ является его прогнозируемость и последовательность. Центральный банк должен систематически общаться с правительством, бизнесом и людьми; сообщать им о своей политике, намерениях, ожиданиях. Необходимо отметить, что информационная политика центральных банков является составной частью его монетарной политики. Это обязанность НБУ: правдиво ориентировать банки, бизнес и граждан в их деятельности относительно вопросов, находящихся в компетенции Нацбанка.

И, наконец, еще одно направление реформ НБУ - это усиление его регуляторных функций как по глубине, так и по масштабам. Эти реформы вызваны мировым кризисом и сейчас широко обсуждаются во всем мире. Дело в том, что кризис показал, что именно центральные банки могут влиять на финансовую стабильность страны. А значит, сфера их регулирования должна распространяться и на динамику стоимости активов (включая ценные бумаги, недвижимость и Ñ‚.д.). А это предполагает не только конструирование более тонких механизмов регулирования и прогнозирования, но и расширение поля регулирования. По крайней мере, кредитные союзы должны отойти под контроль НБУ и ни о каком отделении (или выделении) от НБУ “надзора” сейчас и речи быть не может. Наоборот, уроки кризиса показали, что центральные банки должны развивать и усиливать надзорную функцию, расширять свои мандаты, включив в них на законодательном уровне функцию обеспечения макрофинансовой стабильности.

Еще раз подчеркну: посткризисный опыт (мир уже изменился навсегда) показал, что страна может нормально развиваться только при тщательной координации денежно-кредитной политики и макропруденциальных инструментов регулирования как денежного, так и финансового рынка.

Александр Савченко (заместитель министра финансов Украины, доктор экономических наук, профессор)
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