This morning, oil prices reached an eight successive maxima. All factors indicate that the increase in the prices of black gold in the near future, will continue. From the perspective of technical analysis of the trend is confirmed by the volume of trades: turnover in the Asian session, exceeded 10 times its average value. Fundamental factors for growth, too, even otbavlyay. Two short-term factors. First - this is the ongoing protests in Iran, which should only increase after the Council of Islamic Revolution victory today confirmed M. Ahmadinejad in presidential elections. In the future, the protests could lead to a complete halt of oil production in the country. Second - Strengthening the rebels in Nigeria.

The long-term factor - the former: the inflation process in the U.S. and global economies that have already been launched. Meanwhile, another out of the credit crisis is not: it is necessary to increase the scale of prices, and after him, and the income of borrowers in nominal terms. Then a new level of income will allow them to rebuild their creditworthiness (since payments on debt will remain stable). In doing so, improve credit worthiness using the inflation rate is not very easy task: in terms of growth the last rise and long-term interest rates, hurting the creditworthiness of the economic actors. Thus, along with the increase in inflation, the financial authorities will be required to maintain long-term rates at a low level, purchase long Treasures. A high inflation coupled with low interest rates is good not only for the price of commodities, but also for the quotation of shares.

Interestingly, the LED on the calculation, the average oil prices in 2009 will be $ 54 per barrel. Given that in the first half of the average price of $ 50.61 per barrel in the second, they must be (logically LED) at $ 57.39. And since now the price of Urals is $70.53 per barrel, that means the end of the year it should come down to $ 44.25. In the current news and inflationary environment, we do not believe in such a scenario. However, pleased that make up the budget based on the pessimistic scenarios.

We expect that the average oil price in the second half will be around $ 85 a barrel. Given that the first half of the budget should receive an additional 320 billion rubles. oil and gas revenues, the budget deficit this year is unlikely to exceed 1.5 trillion. rub. This will help prevent a shortage of low ruble to 27 rubles. for-dollar by the end of the year.

The increase in oil prices would also lead to lower profitability of Russian sovereign bonds and the growth of quotations of shares.

We predict higher oil prices to $ 75 dollars per barrel in the coming days, but before the end of the year to $ 100 a barrel. As a result, within a half months, the MICEX index reaches 1350 points, and by the end of the year - 1700 points.

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