Despite the fact that before the end of summer, the National Bank to sell $ 2.8 billion, he did not hurry with the intervention.
Banks expect

promised NBU intervention - the first time the regulator has promised to sell the currency, which they will be able to resell the population. However, turned out as always.

The National Bank on Wednesday promised to go out with a large-scale intervention. all believe. But then he went and sold only 20% of the required amount. Naturally, the market is played back. On the morrow will bring, many courses are significantly higher, - said vice-chairman of one of the largest banks.

According to him, the situation resembles a development in 2008, then save the NBU to intervene, and as a result, banks have ceased to rely on it. After this course has gone up.

The fire is always easier to put out when he has only just begun. The National Bank did not learn from their mistakes. He recently assembled treasurers, and told them that no longer sees the intervention as a means to influence the market. It is understood - it is an easy tool for adjusting the liquidity of the market . saying, do not come to me with their requests - and have enough problems without you - he explained.

According to the treasurer of a medium-sized banks, there is a vicious circle. The population once again pulled in obmenki to buy dollars. However, the banks there is nowhere to buy the currency than the market in which prices are continuously rising. What do I do? Let stand higher rates that we did not come to the dollar. But if it will do everything we quickly check flight 8 hrn. /$ 1, - he stressed.

regulator, in turn, yesterday made another statement heartily. The National Bank has an impressive stock of reserves to maintain the hryvnia. Prior to September 1, this goal can be sent $ 2.8 billion, - said the head of the group of advisers NBU Valery Litvitsky chapter. He noted that this amount exceeds the aggregate amount of intervention for the entire second quarter ($ 1.86 billion).

At the same time, the good tradition, Mr. Litvitsky gave exactly the opposite signal. On the one hand, promised advisor, NBU will not allow the course to mark the return of UAH 10. /$ 1. On the other hand, stressed that impede it will not be. NBU is not trying to stop devalvatsionnuyu trend, but sought to mitigate it. I do not think that we will test the levels of the fourth quarter of 2008, - he said.

reason for such a restraint - the poor state of country's balance of payments and devalvatsionnye sentiment among the population. In June, exports fell by 50.3%, import - by 55,9%, then stabilized and has ceased to fall further. Balance of payments current account balance is projected to NBU, the end of the year will be positive - plus the $ 1 billion to minus $ 12 billion in 2008, however, the outflow of financial account would be much greater.

The net outflow of current and financial transactions on the basis of half remained at a high level. The values and the current and financial accounts for the second quarter improved compared to the first, but this improvement is still insufficient to obtain a solid foundation for exchange rate stability. If not growing export - what could be the influx of currency? - Said Valery Litvitsky.

In addition, among the enterprises and the population is very strong confidence that will continue to devalue the hryvnia. In June, renewed outflow of currency from the banking system. He made $ 229 million, while in May, an influx at the level of $ 74 million

Confidence is not fully restored for political reasons, the beginning of the campaign, pending the outcome of negotiations with the IMF and resolve the situation with Naftogaz. These issues scare people, - explained Mr. Litvitsky.

Thus, today we can not speak about the possibility of strengthening the hryvnia. The facts say that the situation is radically different from what it was in the first half of last year. God forbid, that we have the resources to prevent the weakening of deep rate, - summarized the advisor. He acknowledged that a small hryvnia to the dollar strengthening in the first half of 2009 was due to reduced outflow of foreign currency and by the NBU.

In tactical terms the risk to the currency market are super balances on correspondent banks - about 24 billion UAH. Recently the National Bank made a technical effect in order to prevent the use of the money to buy the currency. It required banks to keep Minimum balance on correspondent accounts in the amount of 40% of mandatory reserves.

Large banks are not zadenet. This is a blow to small, have no money. Many of them do not make payments of clients, because there was no hryvna. But to fulfill standards of redundancy due to the fact that they took each other on overnight loans . Now, that opportunity will not happen. And rightly so, because it should not be zeroed correspondent bank , - vice-chairman believes one of the largest banks. However, it is difficult to say where the money will take these small banks.

A big ask useless - still no limits. Probably going for refinancing. Or fall, as Vladimir and Capital - suggesting it.

Sergei Lyamets

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