Ukrainian stock market, a few months ago in the vicinity of the multi-minima, opened a second wind.

Stock Quotes

quickly went up, demonstrating the fact polutorokratny growth! It lasted until mid-June. At present the situation is stable - the quotations do not grow and not fall. As experts say, the stock market stays sideways trend. However, anxiety among the players did not pass, and that's OK …

Instead preface

in the media was informed that some of the masters of the Ukrainian stock business is ready to abandon the management of public institutions of joint investment in view of the unfavorable situation on the securities market. At first sight, surprising, knowing that people take such action at a time when everything seems to be not so bad.

In fact, until recently the situation seem worse: the rapid devaluation of hryvnia (30% month to month), the fall in industrial production, increasing the problem of bad bank debts. This is not surprising - Ukrainian officials and experts, ceasing to make projections superoptimisticheskie (remember the summer of last year, when many of them did not want to believe in the obvious and argued that the world financial and economic crisis for some reason to bypass Ukraine party), went to another extreme : prophesy horror without end. In such a situation, the market of any country fever would not lower. What motivates the Ukrainian stock market, even as it can earn? Does the movement of quotations of shares any sense?

Plot on

One of the common opinion among analysts is that in our market, there is a conspiracy. For example, a quotation often attributed the movement of major players, swing boat. You can hear the version of the type is now large investors finally shake out with the trading platforms of small investors. There is a belief that financial markets driven by forces behind the U.S. Federal Reserve (if not the CIA), and only about a worldwide Jewish conspiracy, and say nothing - where did it without him? People in general tend to believe that there is a powerful force, and such stories become their listeners.

Secret difficult to prove, for the same reason, difficult to prove, and the lack of plot. But given that the market, hundreds of players who are physically unable to agree - it becomes clear that this theory is likely far from the truth. Against all the conspirators, there are other cool with the money, which do not agree (and only if the cool know about conspiracy, it is not difficult to play well against the market - because they are aware of his movements forthcoming).

Yes, and any conspiracy, if it really exists, necessarily came to the light. Belief in higher power is typical for people who are just a few of the Proca situation in the financial markets. Even if you believe in the unbelievable plot, we can not give any explanation for fluctuations, or projection, because we are not part of the world zakulisya. Others believe that the market - this element, which faces the people. And therein lies the main problem. I'll try to explain his idea.

dividend modeling

As stocks around the world too much range, but people want to get them to return, economists have been able to invent the theory of efficient markets and rational expectations. The idea is simple: if we put, for example, in Oschadbank hryvnia and 10 thousand a year are going to pick up 12 thousand hryvnia, then our rate of return would be 20% per annum. Slightly change the task: in a year will get 12 thousand hryvnia, if we take and diskontiruem this amount at a rate of 20% (ie, divided into 1.2), we can find the current fair value of such a deposit, which will be equal to 10 thousand hryvnia.

By

shares applied this mathematics known as the discounting models. This is only for the securities need to predict future dividends and discount them at an appropriate rate. As a result, we get the so-called fair value. Of course, no one knows the future dividend payments on shares, but they could try to rationally to predict, at least to some degree. Of course, the figure would be obtained by not precise, but it can at least talk about, it is expensive or cheap action (note that in the latter case it must be purchased).

Is

from June 2008 to March 2009, when the stock market fell more than 4 times, people have revised forecasts of future dividends in the Ukraine during the same time? Obviously the answer is no.

the fall of dividends and profits for a year or two or three during the economic recession is not a model of discounting: the crisis will still end, and dividend return to its normal level.

Economists and can not explain why the equity markets vary so much. In our case, science would not be able to justify their models is why investors are willing to give a price for some 'average share in the 4-fold lower than only a year and a half after reaching a peak index PFTS, which was recorded in January 2008. All explanations will be based on fluctuations in the irrational, irrational behavior of investors in the market. A nonsense by definition can not be explained rationally. If you can not do that, then whether economists generally predict such fluctuations?

In fact, the stock model - and not such a utopia, and the stock market, even in its most unpredictable periods of bad hours, a couple of times a day may still come to the fair value. On the other hand, they can understand what the market is too expensive or too cheap. Though why they should not be disposed of in a landfill.

Revenue for resilient

There are some facts that we know about the stock market for sure. Papers for long-term grow and outpace many financial instruments. Anyone who holds shares long, will be return. For example, in the United States there have been no 20-year span of time when the action would not yield outperformed deposits or government bonds.

Of course, the past should not be automatically extrapolated to the future one to one. But somehow we can know the future, including if you look at the past. Therefore, to study the history of stock markets in those countries where the history of the shares did not break the communist experiment.

So, in every country, including in Germany, suffered from two wars and hyperinflation in the early 1920's, Japan or South Africa, long-term stock market behaved excellently, bringing a huge real yield. The growth of the shares, apparently to explain the overall progress: if the GDP grows, you grow and the company producing this GDP.

So if you're an optimist and believe in progress, the action - a good choice. And the opposite: people who are inclined to see the world in black, even in the summer of last year were on the horse. Many of their predictions have come true, the shares fell, thecost of steel products in international markets decreased to 1.75 times, hryvnya collapsed more than 70% of the world economy into deep recession. But remember there is a considerable number of pessimists in the winter of this year, when the index PFTS has fallen to 280 items, predicted a further drop in 2-2,5 times? When the shares were young, they were talking about the speculative nature of growth. Translated from professional language speculative growth - this is not true, not fundamental.

course, look at life through pink glasses, at least, naive. And sometimes a healthy pessimism - it is a useful thing. But it is not always the same is expected only to fall the market? The history of the different equity markets shows that to be pessimistic at times useful, but are behind the curve in no way worth it. Anyone who is constantly afraid of, at least loses profitability.

Yesterday growth?

growth of world economy has not yet begun, but on a planetary scale it - not far off. Economists concerned with the prediction, since the autumn forecast that the global economy will bottom at the end of 2009-th - beginning of 2010. It seems that everything will happen, not only in developed countries but also in Ukraine. While it is difficult to prove the real data, and the apparent increase could be no earlier than mid-2010, but some leading indicators suggest broadside. Polls in the industry, service sector or consumer surveys conducted in key world economies, they say that the trend is ready to turn.

Stock market, incidentally, is one of those leading indicators: in U.S. history, he showed the bottom in about 6-9 months earlier than the economy as a whole. Required half - three quarters of the year since the market bottom is not yet over. But the idea of buying shares when it becomes clear that the economy is growing, is not the best. Shares would then be several expensive.

At the same time, we should not think that train has already left with the shares. Even after the growth of more than 1.5 times the minimum, they are still quite cheap. Prior to the maxima, which were almost 18 months ago, they need to grow nearly 3 times. But that growth could take place. And even more than you can imagine.

So the recent rise of shares may not be speculative. The best solution in the stock market - buy it and forget it. And forget for long. Shares - as cognac: the longer the hold, the better. But it would be wrong to call all buy them.

If you are an optimist, which invest in equities lead to nervous disorders, it is better to include money in the bank for a deposit (though it should be good to think - in what the bank held its blood). Optimists win in the game vdolguyu, because willing to tolerate the risk of a temporary failure of the shares and are not afraid to buy them when the other scared. There is a considerable likelihood that the optimists will win again this time, and yet not once is repeated. In any case, it is in such a scenario happen in the world's leading stock sites in the last half century.

Meanwhile, the main question is as follows,: after a period of time, expect a victory of those who look with optimism on the prospects of the Ukrainian stock market?

Vyacheslav Butko

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