first results of harvesting campaign confirmed the worst fears of experts - on the record harvest this year should not even dream of. In domestic storehouses get to 10 million tonnes of grain is less than last season. But the loss of shaft villagers are offset by high prices. Enhanced demand and the weakening of the traditional competitors of our exporters in the world market traders offer up new horizons. But in the case of селянами are likely to match the traditional nevezuha, which does not allow them to earn even in the very successful years.

last week kicked off in Ukraine harvested Strada - cereals began to gather in the Crimea and Odessa region. In the coming days, will join them Nikolaevschina farmers and Kherson. Experts forecast that the current campaign will be one of the most difficult in recent years and has already reduced the preliminary forecasts for grain harvest. The April frost, replaced the May drought permit селянам again exploit weather.

Some farms claim the loss of or damage to 10-15% of canola and barley crops and 3-5% - wheat. According to the Minagropolitiki, in mid-June in good condition were slightly more than half the crops (5244 ha), in satisfactory - some 35% (3402 ha). Weak and thinning accepted up to 10% of cereals (821 hectares).

According to Director of Pro Agro Nicholas Vernitskogo, this season in the country will be collected about 40 million tons of grain, up 13 million tonnes less than last year's volume, and by 2-3 million tonnes - of what was expected in 2009 . The representative of UkrAgroConsult Elizabeth Malyshko notes that, according to their calculations, villagers will have no more than 39.5 million tons, of which 18.5 million tonnes of wheat and 10 million tonnes of barley. The relatively low output was due to low crop yields. If last season, management collected 34.6 kg /ha of wheat and 28.8 kg /ha of barley, it is expected 29.6 and 21.3 kg /ha, respectively. In addition to far from ideal weather conditions, crop подпортил and inadequate care for the crops - due to lack of funds is not made by farmers and half of the required amounts of fertilizers and crop protection. The money issue could play with селянами malevolent joke now.
According to analyst estimates

Ukrainian club of agrarian business Andrew Tolstopyatov, cleaning will need to order 3.5 billion UAH. that half that was spent on the crop, but still quite a lot, given that most households have already exhausted their reserves, out the last reserves of last year's crop. The shortfall will be not less than 1 billion grn. That increases the chances of crops and stay in the fields. The Government has already promised to compensate affected farmers around 5 billion UAH. But so far only been allocated 300 million UAH. And get access to the money in the current year, farmers will be more difficult than usual.

Andrew Tolstopyat said that, taking into account the factors, and not rely on good quality grains - indicators on the content of protein and gluten allow attributed much of the crop unless the latter fodder 5 and 6 classes.

However, arrears of the shaft does not interfere with селянам good money at the current harvest. Elizabeth Malyshko believes that next season Ukraine will be able to sell at least 15-17 million tons of grain. In physical terms the figure is not impressive, because in the current season, our traders moved out of the country of 10 million tonnes more. But the situation on the stock market in 2010 will be more favorable, which guarantees a relatively high price of grain. According to Andrew Tolstopyatov, the world's crop will be about 600 million tonnes, which is 7% below last year's figures. Culprits shortfall in transnational storehouses are leading exporters such as Australia, USA and Canada, where, because of adverse weather conditions, collect a lot less than usual.

The demand for the same grain will only grow, especially if analysts' predictions come true about the world economy is gradually emerging from the crisis, - said Elizabeth Malyshko. As a result, prices are expected to be higher than in the current season.

Ukrainian club of agrarian business believe that as early as September, when beginning to make extensive purchases Arab countries, the cost of wheat on the exchange increased by 20-30% - up to $ 220-250 /t. We coarse grain can grow in value from the current 1 ths. to 1,2 ths. /t, and food - from 1.2 ths. 1,5 ths. /t.

anticipation of earnings has led to the revival of buyers uncollected crop. Traders actively wheels in the fields, concluding preliminary contracts with селянами the terms of purchase of grain from the field, which allows them to buy goods cheaper by 10-20%. On his desire to participate in the sale of grain, once again declared the state. The forum, held in early June in St. Petersburg, profile Minister Yuriy Melnyk is actively discussing with Russian and Kazakh counterparts the possibility of establishing a pool of grain, which, according to the minister, will allow the participants to dictate the prices on the world market. Potential partners even have time to discuss details of cooperation: it is assumed that for the trans-grain will be involved in the Ukrainian power, half of which, as before, will be able to use our traders, 20% - the Kazakhs, a third - the Russians.

But Nikolai Vernitsky believes that in the foreseeable future, such an alliance is unlikely, because in contrast to the neighbors in the CIS in our country for more than 90% of exports of grain is controlled by the private companies who cooperate with the state monopoly of Russia and Kazakhstan to anything.

Attempts to delegate authority exporter___________________________________________________ SAC Bread of Ukraine by the Government in previous years, so to anything and have not led. Nevertheless, the EU has taken the threat to obtain a strong competitor on the world grain market in the bayonets. Ukraine has already made it clear that as a member of WTO it negozhe enter into dubious agreements with countries outside the trading club.

Lesya Paveletskaya

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