On Friday, February 5, the main stock indexes of the United States after mixed data on the labor market, and amid concern about budget deficits, a number of European countries by the middle of Trade showed a negative trend. For example, the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in January from 10% to 9,7%, while the expected increase to 10,1%. Employment in non-agricultural sector during the same period, at the same time, decreased by 20 thousand against expected to increase by 5 thousand fears about the creditworthiness of a number of Eurozone countries continued to have a weighty pressure on the shares and make the overall uncertainty. In the middle of trades 20:22 MSK barometer of blue chips, the Dow sank to 0.42% to value 9 960.25 points, while the more "wide" SP 500 index weakened by 0.46% to Tier 1 058.21 points. The index is fairly high-tech stocks slackened Nasdaq 0.05% to a value of 2 124.38 points. reduction of employment in non-agricultural sector impacted primarily on the securities industry. For example, General Electric shares were easier on 2,68%, while Boeing lost 1.77%. Quotes insurer Aetna grew by 1.71%, despite the fact that the company reported profit declines 4 quarters up to the level of $ 165.9 million, or 38 cents a share, while analysts expected value of 42 cents.
Dynamics Quotes of the oil market on Thursday, February 4 on the basis of auction closed with a significant decrease in the price of the background of strengthening U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, FOREX, and also because of the negative dynamics of neighboring markets and stock exchanges. On the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the March futures price for U.S. light crude fell by 3.84, or 5.0%, and its price was 73.14 dollars per barrel, which was the lowest close since January 29. The previous day was marked by the most significant drop since July 29. On the ICE exchange in London, Brent crude futures price fell 3.79, or 5.0%, to 72.13 dollars per barrel. Causes On Thursday, February 4 quotes in the market of "black gold" closed with a decrease in the price of the following factors: 1 - economic data - the initial reason for reducing the cost of oil has become an unexpected incre1000ase in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. last week 24-30 January (as reported by the U.S. Labor Department the number of applications increased by 8000 to 480 000), 2 - to strengthen the U.S. dollar in the FOREX market after the release of economic news and makrostatistiki (increased fears that Greece, Portugal and Spain could face difficulties in trying to regain control over their budgets, thereby jeopardizing the fragile economic recovery euro), 3 - negative dynamics of stock exchanges, where the major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red zone against the disappointing financial statements of some companies (Dow Jones industrial average - 10002.18 (-268.37, or -2.61%), Nasdaq Composite - 2125.43 (-65.48, or -2.99%), SP 500 - 1063.11 (-34.17, or -3.11%)), 4 - reduction of adjacent markets, namely falling prices for the precious metals market, 5 - elimination of the positions - many market participants chose to take profits on a number of open long positions amid fears about the economy and growth in energy demand.
Hope for recovery of the labor market in the U.S., fueled by the market all week, evaporated in an instant, and how the markets reacted rapidly even at the monthly and weekly figures on employment, said about how all set to adjust how it is natural and needed. Concerns about the huge national debt of some European countries "hang" over the market for a long time, different views and bursts of information on this topic excite markets for months, this is the reason for global, fundamental and is one of the reasons for the correction since the beginning of the year and creates a general negative background. The head of the ECB yesterday in his statement following the meeting said the uncertainty about the prospects for the euro area, budgetary problems of Greece, Portugal and Spain, which threatens the stability of the entire European Union. Following the presentation by Jean-Claude Trichet, the euro fell to a mark $ 1,371, CDS Portugal has soared to 227. n. (145 bp from the beginning of the year), and Spain up to 170 bp Five Greek CDS rose a further 28 bp reached 417 bp Escape from risk reduction has affected profitability of 10-year U.S.
Yesterday, the euro /dollar fell on the U.S. session to 1.3887 marks, which is 130 points below the daily maximum. Couple pound /dollar sank to a mark 1.5893. Pair dollar /yen was established near the mark of 90.90 after rising to 91.25. Cross the euro /yen was trading at the end of the session near the 126.40 level. The experts noted that the weakening of the currency of the European bloc have speculation about the fact that significant problems with the financing of the budget deficit is not only Greece, but Portugal and Spain. Yesterday, the Dow Jones New York Stock Exchange fell 26.30 points (-0.26%). The Nasdaq rose 0.85 points (0.04%). SP 500 index dropped to 6.04 points (-0.55%). Yesterday, the index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX fell 37.57 points (-0.66%). The London FTSE 100 index fell 30.16 points (-0.57%). Bloomberg European 500 Index dropped to 1.06 points (-0.60%). ISM services index in the U.S. for January 2010 amounted to 50.5 (the forecast was 51.0, the previous value of 49.8). Today in Asia remained the main driver of the market the Japanese yen, which is significantly correlated with the dynamics of the stock market. Index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange"s Nikkei 225 falls to 64.41 points (-0.62%). Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Hang Seng falls to 320.24 points (-1.55%). Singapore Straits Times Index fell to 20.12 points (-0.73%). Code SP /ASX 200 fell to 26.30 points (-0.57%). Today in Asia, the euro /dollar is trading near 1.3885.
Plowed strip of excellent data on business activity in industry in many key economies, published earlier in the week, the day before was supported by positive data on uncompleted deals on home buying and a return to profit builder DR Horton, allowing to extend the U.S. stock indexes rebound from a three-month minimum marks (SP 500 1.3%). One way to keep a positive attitude speech in the U.S. Congress, Paul Volcker, with a detailed plan for reforming the financial industry. The positive closing of trading on Wall Street supported the optimistic mood at the auctions in Asia: Shanghai composite 1.75%, Hang Seng 1.29%, Nikkei 225 0.32%. On Wednesday morning, futures for U.S. indices continue to move the same course (SP 500 0.11%), playing a favorable report from News Corp and tuning in the positive nature of the impending publication rate ISM services (18-00). If those expectations with respect to the rate in the euro area (12-00) and Britain (12-30) are confirmed, and will not contain negative surprises, the punters have an additional reason as long as "not recall" about the unsolved problems servicing sovereign debt and tightening monetary policy in China.
USD Opponents of the dollar have made every effort to restore their positions, but the correction was negligible, with no penetration of key technical levels. Nevertheless, in this week is a great potential, given the planned meeting on the rates of the three central banks, as well as a report on the U.S. labor market. received on Monday, data on the U.S. proved to be controversial. Data on personal income is already included in the statistics for GD1000P in the 4 th quarter, showed an increased propensity of Americans to save money and slow growth, which could adversely affect the economic situation at the beginning of this year. Nevertheless, growth in consumer spending in the United States was recorded the third consecutive month. Personal spending rose by 0.2% (less than expected) after an increase of 0,7% in November. Personal incomes rose 0.4%, exceeding market expectations. Meanwhile, activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector grew in January, the maximum rate since August 2004, stretching out like a locomotive, the U.S. economy of the strongest in the 1930"s. recession. Factory index compiled by ISM, has grown to 58,4 pkt., Exceeding analysts" expectations, against 54,9 pkt. in December. And more importantly, a component of employment reflected the strengthening of 50.2 in December to 53.3. This day will not be anything interesting, except for reports of secondary importance. Pay attention to data on the housing market. We will see leading indicator of sales activity in the industry. Consider that recent reports showed the decline in demand on both the primary and secondary market in connection with the originally planned end of the program of the preferential taxation of buyers. If the leading indicator will be weak, this may indicate that the housing market still has not reached bottom and continues to experience difficulties, utyagivaya for themselves and the entire economy. EUR Finally, and outside the euro came a holiday, although quite small: the currency was able to recover less than 100 points, and then through the strengthening of demand for risk. Euro-zone economy is gradually recovering from recession. Proved by the growth of PMI (PMI) in the manufacturing sector to 52,4 pkt. against 51,6 pkt. in December and the forecast 52,0 pkt. It is worth noting that the single currency demonstrates the weakening for the past two months, but for all this time we have not heard any comments about the weakening EUR. Not surprisingly, this fall can stimulate the development of exports in the region. This is especially important for export-oriented Germany. Now, many investors decided it was time to get rid of the euro in relation to the precarious financial state of the region.
European stock platform finished the day in positive zone thanks to statistics and corporate news. Regional statistics showed improvement in business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Germany, the UK and the Eurozone as a whole, and in the evening encouraged by a message stating that the same indicator in the United States, too, has grown beyond expectations. Then news came to the forefront of companies. Investors were encouraged by the news of the desire of the Canadian pension fund Ontario Teachers "Pension Plan to buy the remaining stake in vodosnabzhayuschey company Northumbrian Water Group. In addition, the optimistic forecast of airline Ryanair Holding Plc. The current financial year has boosted purchases in markets by leveling the negative of the loss enterprises on the basis of III quarter of 2009. The focus of the paper were construction companies, after Deutsche Bank predicted growth stocks in the sector this year in the UK to 35%.
Index Ksetra the Frankfurt Stock Exchange DAX (Xetra DAX) rose 14.64 points (0.26%) and at the level of 5623.43. Index of the Paris Stock Exchange, BTB 40 (CAC 40) dropped to 2.06 points (-0.06%) and at the level of 3737.40. The March futures on the index S & Pi 500 (SP 500) on Globex (Globex) rose to 6.7 points and is 1077.1. Opening of the American stock indexes are now expected to top. The euro /dollar rose in European session to 1.3917 level. In the forex market, there is a correction of the course after a noticeable drop in the last week. Supporting the growth rate has an index of business activity in Europe (16). Recall that last night the euro /dollar fell to 1.3851 level, a minimum of 8 July 2009. Member of the European Commission Almunia said that, despite the fact that Greece plans to reduce the budget deficit the government is sufficiently ambitious, they are achievable. supported the euro against the dollar has increased rates of precious metals. Australian dollar, after falling to 0.8787 marks adjusted to the level of 0.8839. The market talk tomorrow about the possibility of increasing the basic interest rate in Australia at 0.25%. This week, investors" attention will be directed to the meetings of central banks in the eurozone, Britain and Australia. An important event called the next day"s speech team member of U.S. President Volcker in the U.S. Senate, during which he will present the management plans to the White House to reform the banks.
On Thursday, the restoration of Russia"s stock market after a long fall may continue. The reason for this will be a positive reaction of global markets to summarize the meeting held on the Fed. the federal funds rate was maintained at the same level of 0-0.25% per annum, with the passage, that this situation will continue for a long time, was not subjected to correction. Also, do not become "touched" by the representatives of FOMC discount rate, as expected by some experts. At the same time the Fed reaffirmed their commitment to previously stated plans for the removal of additional measures to stimulate the economy: stop the program redemption of debt securities secured by mortgage and agency securities by March 31, as well as a number of programs to provide liquidity to February 1. Together with a slightly more optimistic assessment of what is happening to the economy of investment companies and employment is allowed to believe that Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues have become increasingly convinced that economic recovery is sustainable. The fact that the decision to leave interest rates at the same level it was not unanimous - advocated for raising the head of the FBI in Kansas, Thomas Hoenig, the mood of a particular way does not affect (SP 500 0.49%). Futures on interest rates reflected a slight increase in the chances of ending the policy of low interest rates, which can be expected to occur with a probability of more than 50% only in November.
Dynamics U.S. dollar strengthened on the basis of the Fed meeting, but later lost some of the conquered positions. When the pair EUR /USD fell below 1.4000 marks, the pair GBP /USD remains in the same range of about 1.6100, and the pair USD /CHF broke a mark 1.0500. Japan also fell against other currencies. When the pair USD /JPY back to a mark of 90.00, and the pair EUR /JPY rebounded above 126.00. Commodity currencies remain in the ranges against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the pair AUD /USD remains slightly below the 0.9000, the pair NZD /USD traded below 0.7100, and the pair USD /CAD remains slightly higher than 1.0600. Causes results of voting and the accompanying statement the Fed returned to the agenda of the expectations of higher interest rates, despite the fact that they were near zero. However, against this decision to vote one member of the Operations Committee on the Fed"s open market. In addition, the Committee reiterated that the intention, according to a plan to complete the purchase of mortgage-backed securities at the end of March, and to close most of the emergency credit line by February 1. Also, the Federal Reserve replaced the phrase about the fact that the economy is "likely to remain weak for some time," the wording "the pace of economic recovery are likely to be moderate for some time." And, finally, the announcement of the termination of the swap agreements between the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Swiss central bank also supports the view that the U.S. economy is on the road to recovery. Nevertheless, after the announcement of the outcome of the Fed meeting did not happen over-strengthening of the U.S. dollar, and after the futures on the shares began to rise, he lost some of the conquered positions.