On Thursday, the restoration of Russia"s stock market after a long fall may continue. The reason for this will be a positive reaction of global markets to summarize the meeting held on the Fed. the federal funds rate was maintained at the same level of 0-0.25% per annum, with the passage, that this situation will continue for a long time, was not subjected to correction. Also, do not become "touched" by the representatives of FOMC discount rate, as expected by some experts. At the same time the Fed reaffirmed their commitment to previously stated plans for the removal of additional measures to stimulate the economy: stop the program redemption of debt securities secured by mortgage and agency securities by March 31, as well as a number of programs to provide liquidity to February 1. Together with a slightly more optimistic assessment of what is happening to the economy of investment companies and employment is allowed to believe that Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues have become increasingly convinced that economic recovery is sustainable. The fact that the decision to leave interest rates at the same level it was not unanimous - advocated for raising the head of the FBI in Kansas, Thomas Hoenig, the mood of a particular way does not affect (SP 500 0.49%). Futures on interest rates reflected a slight increase in the chances of ending the policy of low interest rates, which can be expected to occur with a probability of more than 50% only in November.
Dynamics U.S. dollar strengthened on the basis of the Fed meeting, but later lost some of the conquered positions. When the pair EUR /USD fell below 1.4000 marks, the pair GBP /USD remains in the same range of about 1.6100, and the pair USD /CHF broke a mark 1.0500. Japan also fell against other currencies. When the pair USD /JPY back to a mark of 90.00, and the pair EUR /JPY rebounded above 126.00. Commodity currencies remain in the ranges against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the pair AUD /USD remains slightly below the 0.9000, the pair NZD /USD traded below 0.7100, and the pair USD /CAD remains slightly higher than 1.0600. Causes results of voting and the accompanying statement the Fed returned to the agenda of the expectations of higher interest rates, despite the fact that they were near zero. However, against this decision to vote one member of the Operations Committee on the Fed"s open market. In addition, the Committee reiterated that the intention, according to a plan to complete the purchase of mortgage-backed securities at the end of March, and to close most of the emergency credit line by February 1. Also, the Federal Reserve replaced the phrase about the fact that the economy is "likely to remain weak for some time," the wording "the pace of economic recovery are likely to be moderate for some time." And, finally, the announcement of the termination of the swap agreements between the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Swiss central bank also supports the view that the U.S. economy is on the road to recovery. Nevertheless, after the announcement of the outcome of the Fed meeting did not happen over-strengthening of the U.S. dollar, and after the futures on the shares began to rise, he lost some of the conquered positions.
Yesterday, the euro /dollar continued its decline in the U.S. session, and reached 1.3993 marks. Couple pound /dollar after rising to 1.6240 marks dropped to 1.6137, which is 103 points below the daily maximum. Pair dollar /yen was established near the mark of 90.00. Cross the euro /yen was trading at the end of the session near the 126.20 level. The experts noted that the pressure on the euro against the dollar has reduced investors" willingness to take risks and fall of the riskier instruments such as gold, Australian, New Zealand dollar. The decrease in optimism of investors contributed to the statements of Mr. Ben Bernanke. In a statement the Fed said that the country"s continuing growth in economic activity. However, its pace is slow. It was stated that the rates in the U.S. for an extended period will remain at low levels. The main reasons for this are called high unemployment and low inflation. It was noted that the negative trends in the labor market in the U.S. is weakening. At the same time, the volume of consumer spending remained low. The decrease in lending continues. Experts say that are used today in the Open Market Committee statement, expression suggests that the leadership of the Fed has become more optimistic about the prospects for economic development. Fed program to purchase debt from mortgage agencies retained without change in the amount of 175 billion dollars it must end in the first quarter of this year. Program for the purchase of securities in the mortgage market of $ 1.25 trillion. U.S. until March of this year is unchanged. By February 1, is scheduled to close anti-crisis swap transactions with foreign central banks. Yesterday, the Dow Jones New York Stock Exchange rose 41.87 points (0.41%). The Nasdaq rose 17.68 points (0.80%). SP 500 index rose to 5.33 points (0.49%). Yesterday, the index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX fell 25.73 points (-0.45%). The London FTSE 100 index fell 59.38 points (-1.13%). Bloomberg European 500 Index fell 1.40 points (-0.80%). yesterday completed another two-day meeting of the Open Market Committee Federal Reserve System. As a result, the range for the basic interest rate on federal funds (Federal fund rate) is unchanged at 0.00-0.25%. For this decision voted nine committee members, one voted against. The discount rate is left unchanged at 0.50%. Yesterday the price of WTI crude oil during the bidding in New York fell to 1.80 dollar to the level of 72.91 dollars per barrel. Yesterday the price of gold also test the bottom at around 1084.00 dollars per troy ounce. New home sales in the U.S. for December 2009 amounted to 342K (forecast 370K, the previous value of 355K).
Peculiar tug of war between bears and bulls will be a consequence of the lack of obvious advantages to one party or another. Published on the eve of the evening strong data on consumer confidence from the Conference board, coupled with some fairly good quarterly reports were insufficient to keep the American stock market in positive territory (SP 500 -0.42%). Spread the market by the end of the trading session contributed increased speculation that the outcome of the ongoing meeting of the Fed FOMC, the regulator will signal a more briskly embodiment of plans for the removal of add1000itional programs to support the economy. After completion of trades reported back in the forecast the company Yahoo, which did not give significant impetus to the growth of futures for U.S. indices in Wednesday morning (SP 500 0.09%). In Asia, where there are fresh fears that the People"s Bank of China will continue to tighten monetary policy, preference are still selling: Shanghai composite -0.47%, Nikkei 225 -0.71%, Hang Seng 0.29%.
Dynamics Quotes of the oil market on Friday, January 22 and results of the auctions closed with a decrease in value against the backdrop of pessimistic sentiment of market participants regarding the recovery of world economy, but also because of the negative dynamics of equity markets and adjacent areas. At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the March futures price of U.S. crude fell by 1.54, or 2.0%, and its price was 74.54 dollars per barrel. The exchange ICE in London, Brent crude futures price fell 1.75, or 2.3%, to 72.83 dollars per barrel. Causes On Friday, Jan. 22 quotes on the market of "black gold" closed with a decrease in price under the following factors: 1 - economic news - oil futures to the next term of execution for two weeks, fell 10%. The pace of decline has accelerated over the past three sessions, as China took steps to reduce lending to keep its economy to overheat. Thus, under the threat turned out to be the world"s largest source of oil demand growth, 2 - the fall of the stock sites, where U.S. stocks fell a third straight session, under pressure from concerns of market participants about the plan to the White House to banks and China"s tightening of credit conditions, while under question is also tenure B.
After the end of the previous week, the American currency has strengthened its position abruptly against competitors on rumors of a possible resignation of Angela Merkel and the continuation of the history of financial troubles of Greece, on Monday the dollar above did not, apparently, also taking the day off to celebrate Martin Luther Day King in the U.S., and began a serious strengthening on all fronts Tuesday. The pressure on the competitors of the dollar as the previous week, continued to provide a situation in which Greece was, in addition, European data, for the most part have been disappointing, in particular, the indices of the German Research Institute Zew, and the U.S. have been able to please ( it can be said about the figures on the volume of purchases of U.S. securities by foreign investors and data on producer price inflation). It is worth noting that the dollar has made major breakthrough in the middle of the week: report that China may be suspended loans to commercial banks. Accordingly, the Asian share indexes on Wednesday moved down along with the prices of other risky assets, then came the turn of European markets, and later - and the U.S.. On Thursday, the dollar continued to strengthen, at the beginning of the day quotes of the European currencies continued to fall on inertia, not feeling the support from the PMI index for the euro area and Germany. Fortune turned the European session for those skilled traders who have put against the pound - against the background of the publication of data to reduce the amount of the monetary aggregate M4 and increase the state budget deficit (the amount of borrowed funds of the state) to 15.7 billion pounds of "British" literally sunk to the level of 1.6123, after which not rise above 1.6240. Simultaneously, the euro sank to week low at around 1.4028 (almost 300 points below the opening week), franc also weakened to 1.0494 week low. In addition, on Thursday last week truly could be called a day of the yen, as the charts with just the currency could boast the same day a strong movement towards the strengthening of this. Happened during the U.S. trading session, when Barack Hussein Obama in his speech touched on plans for the coming tighten regulation of the monetary sphere in the United States. In particular, these measures are intended to limit the activity of commercial banking institutions in the conduct of operations with more risky assets. The purpose of tightening control is to reduce the volume of risky trading operations and to prevent recurrence of financial crisis. Of course, as a result of such statements, investors began to Obama immediately withdraw the remaining funds from the hitherto risky instruments, to invest in assets denominated mainly in so far reliable, but lower-income Japanese currency, which led to its rapid capacity: two hours had the panic-stricken investors to move from the area of 91.70 yen to the daily maximum of 90.10. By end of the week, as predicted by analysts FOREX CLUB, there has been some restoration of the positions of the European currencies to the dollar, the reason that served as positive data on changes in the volume of industrial orders in the EU (1.60%), and deliverance from investors dollar due to concerns about the decline in investment inflows to the U.S. after the possible entry into force of the plan to regulate the monetary sphere.
The only positive news yesterday there were reports XEROX and Goldman Sachs. On Thursday, the dollar continued to strengthen against the euro, up to 1,403 dollars, oil prices fell to 77.3 dollars per barrel. WTI, data on unemployment in the United States were worse than expected, in addition, the U.S. president Barack Obama came out with an initiative to restrict the activities of banks. The Chinese authorities do not deny the probability of collapse of anti-crisis program, this trend is projected to investors of other influential CB. On such a background of Russia"s information indices showed instability, resulting in a decrease of 1,7%. In the oil sector, the dynamics of the market showed worse Rosneft (-3%), other liquid stocks declined in the medium range. Today, oil prices fell below 76 dollars per barrel. U.S. Ministry of Energy reported that commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. for a week from 9 to 15 January 2010. fell less than expected at 0.4 million barrels to 330.6 million barrels.
Quarterly reporting Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) was better than expected and in terms of profits, and in terms of income. The main reasons for such a good quarter were made by the bank"s noninterest income and a significant reduction in reserve to cover the debt problem, which blocked the negative effect of relatively high non-interest expenses of the issuer. A positive surprise in EPS amounted to more than 35%, and the EPS in the IV quarter amounted to $ 0.2, while a positive surprise to the Bank"s income amounted to 4.7%, while revenues exceeded the bank"s $ 1.5 billion The quality of loans, like other banks, is improving. Quality, of course, still poor, but in the current circumstances, from our point of view, anything less is bad - is good. Write-offs of loan portfolio in annual terms in the IV quarter amounted to 3.62%, or 13 b. § less than in the previous quarter, with write-offs declined in the portfolio of consumer and commercial loans. In absolute terms, the bank wrote off loans at almost 6.5% lower than in the previous quarter. The share of non-performing loans in the portfolio, and even grew by 7 b. n. in the past quarter, but its rate of growth has slowed significantly. Currently NPL ratio is 3.82%. More important, from our point of view, is the dynamics of reserve to cover the debt problem. This element in the IV quarter decreased by 18.5%, which, in our view, reflects the positive trends in loan portfolio quality. The Bank has a relatively high level of capital adequacy, and management operates fairly conservative in respect of its loan portf1000olio, so much sense so seriously reduce the cost of provisions in the absence of trends to improve the quality of the loan portfolio, it was not.
Dynamics Quotes of the oil market on Wednesday, January 20 on the basis of bidding closed with a decrease in value against the background of strengthening U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, FOREX, and also because of the negative dynamics of equity markets and adjacent areas. At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the February futures price of U.S. crude fell by 1.40, or 1.8%, and its price was 77.62 dollars per barrel. The ICE exchange in London, Brent crude futures price fell 1.58, or 2.0%, to 77.74 dollars per barrel. Causes On Wednesday, Jan. 20 quotes on the market of "black gold" closed with a decrease in price under the following factors: 1 - strengthening of the dollar in the FOREX market after the release of economic news makrostatistiki and 2 - the fall of the stock sites, where " blue chips "Wall Street fell on the background of China"s intention to limit the liquidity of banks, reinforcing fears that global economic recovery will slow down (Dow Jones industrial average - 10603.15 (-122.28, or -1.14%), Nasdaq Composite - 2291.25 (-29.15, or -- 1.26%), SP 500 - 1138.04 (-12.19, or -1.06%)), 3 - negative dynamics of the neighboring markets, namely, a significant drop in prices of precious metals; 4 - economic news - from China reported that banks were ordered to limit the amount of credit until the end of January, but the chairman of the Banking Regulatory Liu Minkail on Wednesday said that while banks were ordered to suspend lending in January, Chinese authorities will control the pace of credit growth this year, leading to a significant reduction in the issuance new loans in Japanese yen.
Wednesday afternoon was definitely the dollar, as well as those market participants who have long positions in U.S. currency: USD was worth about 1.0450 francs, increased by almost 2 cents against both the euro and pound. Less successful was the dollar against the Japanese yen, but it has its own reasons: investors since the beginning of active trading in Asia, rushed to get rid of the riskier assets that have benefited from low-yielding currencies - primarily the U.S. dollar and the JPY. The reason for concern - news from China, where, reportedly, may be suspended loans to commercial banks. Accordingly, the Asian stock indices moved down with the prices of other risky assets, then came the turn of European markets, and later - and American. Thus, during the day the euro was nearly struck down the figure of 1.4100, a drop in prices was halted pound at 1.6250.