If the morning on the interbank forex market (forex) was relatively quiet, even boring, to the middle of the day it became clear that this is just an illusion. In the rays of glory today the British Pound Sterling: GBP rally started with the start of the European session, the currency has consistently overcome the key marks and eventually reached 1.6455. Additional support for "Britishness" had data on the UK (CPI 0,6% m /m, 2,9% y /y). Economists, however, believe that the rise of the pound was unfounded, since a positive statistic data to rejoice too early - the economy Albion have not yet emerged from recession. But the single European currency on Tuesday unlucky so unlucky: and so a weak euro was an incentive to continue the downward movement after the publication of data on the ZEW E-16, which unexpectedly turned out to be weaker than expected.
Lack of trades in the United States on the eve of a negative impact on investor sentiment. Futures on the U.S. S P500 index grows up in the morning, haggling about the same grades as yesterday. Asian indexes mostly falling on Tuesday morning, not finding new ideas in the events of the last day. Raw ground feel better, but there is not so good as we would like. Oil prices yesterday showed growth for the first time in the past few trading sessions, which had a tangible support to the domestic indices. Unfortunately, closer to the closing quotation of the two varieties of "black gold" had gone down. As a result, on the basis of the trading day Monday, energy prices have not changed. This morning Brent and WTI show weakly expressed negative dynamics.
Dynamics Quotes of the oil market on Monday 18 January to results of the auctions closed with a slight increase in price against falling U.S. dollar in the currency market FOREX, and also because of the positive trend of the stock markets and adjacent areas. At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the February futures price of U.S. light crude rose by 0.25, or 0.1%, and its price was 78.25 dollars per barrel. The exchange ICE in London cost of Brent crude futures rose 0.16, or 0.1%, to 77.27 dollars per barrel. Causes On Monday, Jan. 18 quotes on the market of "black gold" were closed with an increase in price by the following factors: 1 - a slight drop in the dollar in the FOREX market after economic makrostatistiki and news, 2 - to strengthen the stock of sites where Europe"s main stock index closed in green zone (FTSE100 - 5494.39 (39.02, or 0.72), CAC40 - 3977.46 (23.08, or 0.58), Xetra DAX - 5918.55 (42.58, or 0.72)) - U.S.
The main factor for investors this week will be out of U.S. company results for the 4 quarter of 2009, which set the tone for trading, not only for the financial sector, but also for the whole market as a whole. The focus will be on the reporting of large U.S. banks. Tuesday is scheduled for release reporting Citigroup, on Wednesday - Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, on Thursday - Goldman Sachs. There is reason to believe that the statements of U.S. banks will be strong and may even be better than market expectations. Activity in the capital market further increased in the 4 th quarter, and revenues of U.S. banks, which are major players in global capital markets, have remained at a good level. Accordingly, we believe that this week the markets will be dominated by a positive trend. this week released a lot of important macroeconomic statistics.
Index Ksetra the Frankfurt Stock Exchange DAX (Xetra DAX) rose 33.57 points (0.57%) and at the level of 5909.54. Index of the London Stock Exchange Futsi 100 (FTSE 100) rose by 42.12 points (0.77%) and at the level of 5497.49. The March futures on the index S & Pi 500 (SP 500) on Globex (Globex) rose by 2.8 points and is 1135.1. The euro /dollar established in the European session in a narrow range between levels 1.4364 and 1.4391. On the one hand, support for the euro against the dollar has a growth rate pound /dollar, as well as increased rates of gold, the Australian and New Zealand dollars. support of, the riskier instruments has expectation, in particular, the positive data in China, which will be published this week. On the other hand, the euro continues to pressure from investors due to concerns about the situation with the budget deficit in Greece. pound /dollar rose today to the level of 1.6375.
Dynamics On Friday, Jan. 15 quotes for gold and silver have completed trades with a decrease in value against the background of strengthening U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, FOREX, and also because of the negative dynamics of equity markets and adjacent areas. As a result of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) quotes gold futures dropped 12.50 to 1130.50 on dollars per troy ounce, quotes, silver futures fell 23 cents to 18.43 dollars per ounce. Causes On Friday 15 January futures on precious metals have completed trades with a decrease in price under the following factors: 1 - strengthening of the dollar in the FOREX market to the weakening of the tendency of investors to take risks after the economic makrostatistiki and news related to credit in Europe and the global economic recovery, 2 - negative dynamics of the neighboring markets, namely the drop in oil prices, the fifth consecutive day, and 3 - the fall of the stock sites, where the major U.S. stock indices closed in the red zone against the backdrop of negative quarterly reports (Dow Jones industrial average - 10609.65 (-100.90, or -0.94%), Nasdaq Composite - 2287.99 (-28.75, or -1.24%), SP 500 - 1136.03 (-12.43, or -1.08%)), 4 - lack of inflationary pressures has prompted some traders sell futures for gold to leveling or reduction of positions in anticipation of the three-day weekend on the occasion of Martin Luther King in the United States.
USD And again pitching on the market. The long-awaited breakthrough and the trend reversal has not happened, because players do not fully lost faith in the power of the American economy. A series of disappointing figures from the labor market and a consumer sector still unable to reduce the demand for the dollar, although possibly a role in strengthening the currency and has played a flight from risky assets. Now traders are engaged in a guessing on what to expect from the nearest meeting Fedrezerva rates. Thus, all attention will be directed to the comments of representatives of the Federal Reserve, as well as data that may affect the tone of the accompanying statement. On Friday we learned that consumer prices in the United States remains symbolic, since the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy restrains inflation. Taking into account seasonal adjustments to the consumer price index (CPI) rose in December only after the unrevised 0.1% growth in November at 0.4%. American consumers continue to question the health of the economic system of his country, as confirmed by an index compiled by Reuters /University of Michigan, who grew up in December to only 72,8 pkt. against 72,5 pkt. in November. Projections indicate a significant increase - up to 74,0 pkt. Nevertheless, activity in New York"s manufacturing sector showed a sharper rise than analysts expected. The index of general state of the economy, reflected an increase to 15.9 from 4.5 in December. And industrial production rose in December at 0.6%, as analysts expected, while the rate was 72.0%. painting quite controversial, but one thing remains clear, that while the consumer sector is fairly weak, given the state of the labor market and the levels of expenditure. This is a very bad sign, since households are the backbone of the American economy. Calendar of this week is unlikely to clarify the situation, because of scheduled reports only data on flows of foreign capital, an index PPI, the number of new buildings and activity in the manufacturing industry FRB Philadelphia. Today, markets are closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day. EUR In the last working day of the week the euro weakened against the dollar, and it was a lot of reasons. On Friday morning the single currency has been actively selling on rumors of the resignation of Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Outside the background of recent days was contradictory - on the one hand, the market pressured news from China (the beginning of the tightening of monetary policy), Europe (fiscal and debt crisis in Greece) and the U.S. (a sudden drop in retail sales). Ambiguous report of the first major U.S. bank, reported last quarter, put pressure on markets, particularly in the equities of the financial sector. Although the net profit ($ 0.74 per share) significantly exceeded the consensus forecast ($ 0.61), the result was assured income from investment banking operations. In this first 1 square. 2008, the Bank has received the loss in the retail segment, as had to build up reserves to cover losses on consumer loans. Moreover, the bank"s chief executive promises to 1P10 quarterly loss on credit cards in the amount of $ 1 billion as defaults in this segment reflect the high level of unemployment in the United States. Stated on the eve of Barack Obama plan to tax the largest financial companies in the U.S. as a new tax is not added their positive actions. Block American makrostatistiki was also mixed. Were better than expected data for the January increase in industrial activity in New York, inflation (CPI) formed below the consensus forecast, which indicates the possibility of maintaining supportive monetary policy the Fed. Data on industrial production coincided with the expectations (0.6%), although growth was achieved extraction of raw materials and power generation, with the downturn in the manufacturing sectors. But the greatest disappointment to the market brought a report on the index of consumer confidence in the University of Michigan - despite a slight increase in the previous month, it was below the consensus forecast, reflecting the deterioration in expectations of U.S.
At the beginning of a new week, the situation on the interbank forex market (forex) There is in favor of the U.S. dollar: the players again in the economy in Greece and ways to tackle its problems, because last week the issue was discussed by politicians many times, and the head of the ECB"s Trichet stressed that the Greece should not expect any help from the EU - but the point of the story yet. Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, last week, also commented on the question of Greek influence on the course the single European currency, noting that the critical situation in the economy of Greece raises EUR in a difficult position. In addition, concern, and data as business confidence in Germany is projected that the data whose publication is scheduled for Tuesday morning, come out weak. Thus, it is assumed that the statistics show ZEW drop in January, the fourth consecutive month to the level of 49.5 points from 50.4 points earlier in December.
Quotations of "black gold" steadily moving up on the anomalous cold in the U.S. and Europe, are now at a maximum for the past 15 months. This morning they added about 0.8%. The latest news, which supported the prices for hydrocarbons, it was a message from China"s rising imports of crude oil in December to 20.9 million tons with 16.7 million tons in November. The volume of oil imports to the country for the entire 2009 reached a record level of 203.8 million tons. Data on Chinese imports of metals in December added optimism and traders LME. Futures on the major industrial metals added this morning with more than 2%. support to the commodity price quotes is also a weak dollar, to accelerate its fall after disappointing data on the labor market in the United States, according to which, in December the U.S.