FOREX and Financial Crisis

Today, trading on Russia"s market opened growth, despite the negative external background, but in the future negative prevailed. Lower oil prices and statistics from Europe increased sales, resulting in Russia"s market is left to the negative territory. In leaders reduction Gazpromneft, losing just over 2%, the company which are Uralsvyazinform (-1.5%) and Mosenergo (-1.6%). On the positive territory traded OGK-5 (2%) and Sberbank (0.3%). By 14.30 the MICEX index fell by 0.65%, down to the level of 1470 points. Despite the attempt to open the market to continue yesterday"s upward movement, the Bears were able to seize the initiative and, against the backdrop of oil prices, with Brent futures dropped below $ 77, and the negative statistics from Europe, increase Russia"s platform on negative territory. Later the market there has been a slight adjustment that allowed by the middle of the day partially offset reduction. The main factor for future market dynamics will report Citigroup, which will be published before the opening of U.S. markets. He set the tone for the dynamics on the closure of our sites and to the U.S. trading session. If the report will be better than expectations, Russia"s market will turn around and the end of bidding to return to the levels of previous day"s close. If the report adds the negative, then we can expect that the Bears" support of the strikes at 1460 points and the MICEX index closed the day below that level. log in and see the material;; 2; user rated material on 3,5. Analyst Ratings

Futures on shares of OAO "LUKOIL" (LKH0): in the morning futures LKH0 is in the basis of 110 points, with a 13-00 Moscow time decreasing by 1,3% (Fig. 1). Fig. 1. History of the basis (within days). The number of open positions with the beginning of trading has declined by 2500 and amounts to 116,500 contracts (Fig. 2). Fig. 2. Changing the open position (within days). In the long term the market remains in a downtrend. The volatility of the March Putov "outside money" higher than the volatility of the March call "outside money" (Fig. 3). We are witnessing "volatility smirk", which signals that will soon resume downward trend. Fig. 3. Exchange IV (within days). If we talk about the number of open positions, the maximum number - of putakh LK17000BO9 (put max, Fig. 4) and Collen LK18000BC9 (call max, Fig. 4). Fig. 4. Levels of optional support /resistance. The most likely scenario: a reduction in the area 14000. Least likely scenario: growth in the region 18000. log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material at 4. Analyst Ratings

Yesterday, the dynamics of stock price in Russia has followed the market sentiments in Europe and in the domestic market in connection with a holiday in the United States. The MICEX index rose by 1,85% in the bidding, RTS index - on 1,40%. Yesterday, on the growth of new shares were leading metallurgical sector Severstal, TMK, Norilsk Nickel, Asha Metallurgical plant. Along with increased market shares of the banking sector, a number of telecommunications companies, oil and gas sector. On the morning of Tuesday, the Asian indexes mostly lower. In a slight positive territory remains the market in China, waiting for the publication of key macroeconomic data on Thursday. It reduces indices of Japan, Australia, Hong Kong. The U.S. market was closed on Friday near zero values, on Tuesday morning futures on indexes NASDAQ and SP show growth within 0.8 pm. Russia"s ADRs were in demand yesterday: the shares of steel and coal companies have shown gains, gold remained in the negative. Oil and gas securities moved different direction: Lukoil, Rosneft increased, Tatneft - negative. Telecom and e-power also shut down growth. RTS Futures on the basis of evening trades rose by 0,2%. Today publish the results of the reporting company Citigroup, and the results of Russia"s production company X5 Retail Group. From the macroeconomic statistics are data on capital inflows in the United States and the index of business optimism. view is not very data-intensive external background, the market of Russia may continue countervailing dynamics of quotations. Selective growth continues today in the shares of almost all sectors of the market: the market dynamics better than expected on the shares of Sberbank, IDC Holding. Dynamics of shares of oil and gas sector will depend on the dynamics of oil futures during the day. Morning futures are about $ 76.8 marks, down from yesterday"s levels at 0.7%. Grow up paper can be gold-mining companies in the preservation of the growing dynamics of futures for gold during the day (the price level rose in the evening, compared with yesterday. By 9:00 - adjusted to yesterday"s levels). There is also increasing futures nickel to $ 1906. In anticipation of corporate reports this week, and data from China, Russia"s market is likely to keep a positive attitude. log in and see the material;; 4; user rated material at 2. Analyst Ratings

last year for the first time in the past few years the country has been falling sales volumes of petroleum products. In 2009, through a network of local stations were sold to 3.6 million tons of gasoline, which is 3% less than that in 2008 most oil market dippedsharply in November and December last year, when the sale of gasoline at the gas station collapsed (as compared to the same period 2008) to 7,5% - to 580 thousand tons of oil in this situation behaved appropriately: in pursuit of the consumer at the end of last year, they lowered the price of oil by 40-50 kopecks per liter. Nevertheless, the new year, market participants have begun to raise prices. During the first half of January the cost of motorists favored A-95 rose by 6% - to 7,5 UAH. /l, the same amount has increased and diesel, which is now worth more than 6,2 UAH. /l. Dealers attributed this rise in price with cold weather conditions (accompanied by an increase in fuel consumption in the urban cycle), as well as the rising cost of black gold at the end of 2009 (10% - to $ 77/barrel). Together with this recently, another event occurred, which might well become the basis for more expensive fuel. It is about changing the basic strategy of the retail market - the group "Privat". Since the beginning of this year, it raised the price of its gas stations by 4% - to 7,2 UAH. /Liter. This was probably due to the fact that December 23, 2009 Cabinet abolished the technical conditions for the production of so-called components of gasoline KB-92 and CB-95, which are less traditional counterparts of high-quality fuel. Government"s decision affected more than others "Privat", since the Kremenchug refinery, part of this business group, recently started production of KB-92 and CB-95 in order to save on excise taxes (the rate of charge with the fuel components is equal to only 20 euros /t, whereas for conventional gasoline - 110 euros /ton). By reducing the cost of paying excise Dnepropetrovsk businessmen could sell fuel cheaper than competitors in the 30-40 kopecks per liter. Now, the above-mentioned decision of the Cabinet made the economy "Privat" on Excise impossible, forcing Igor Kolomoisky revise its dumping strategy. noteworthy that growth has occurred for the first time in the past few months has allowed oil magnates to tighten rates to forecasts of expert-analytical group on the functioning of the market of petroleum and petroleum products, which each decade counting the cost of fuel. Thus, in the second decade of January the aforementioned group forecasted price per liter of A-95 in the amount of 7,47 UAH., Whereas in Kiev and Crimea gas stations it currently exceeds 7,7 UAH. In Ukrneftekhimpererabotka upon which to establish an expert-analytical group, said that what happened more expensive - not the limit.

unequivocal attitude on the growth of today will not be Yesterday, U.S. markets were closed for the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. Futures for U.S. indexes and reached its peak last night, today in the morning somewhat lowered its temperature: SP 0,22%. Dollar exchange rate fell against the yen (90,45), but remained stable in the pair with the euro (1,44). Prices for Brent oil also ushili lower elevations of evening and Tuesday morning we see them at $ 76.7 per barrel. Today"s trading on Asian exchanges mainly take place in the zone of moderate decrease in stock market indices: MSCI Asia -0,63%. The December data on the index of consumer confidence in Japan showed a decrease to 37.6 against 39.5 in November. Negative for the local market and brought the beginning of bankruptcy proceedings of the largest Japanese airline Japan Airlines. Trading on Russia"s stock market today will begin a slight decline in the zone of quotations. Yesterday"s "bullish" sentiment in our market today will be resisting the urge of the players to take profits from speculative growth. The boom in prices for industrial metals market today in Asia, I think, will support the positions of the shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel. Due to the fact that this afternoon went a block of statistics from Europe, clearly the positive dynamics of our quotations and European exchanges, we can not see. At 12-30 in the UK leave the data on December consumer inflation (forecast: 0.3% m /m, 2,6% y /y) and the index of retail prices. In the 13-00 waiting for publication of the January ZEW index of economic sentiment in the euro area (forecast: 48.0) and Germany (forecast: 50.0). In the 15-00 waiting for release of quarterly and annual reporting Citigroup - it will, perhaps, the most important data today. In 17-00 Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the discount rate. In the January 21-00 Exposure housing market index (NAHB) (forecast: 17). log in and see the material;; 4; user rated material on 4,2. Analyst Ratings

Despite a lull in the commodities market and the output at U.S. stock exchanges, initiated in Russia stock market is fully captured bulls. As a result of trading the MICEX index added 1.85%. In leaders of yesterday were shares of Transneft (8%), as well as metallurgical sector paper: CMI (7%), Severstal (6.6%), Mechel (3.4%). Today, we also look forward to continuing to improve the game in the second echelon. Among blue chips, worth noting Gazprom and Lukoil as a market with good growth potential in the long term. Because of its "seriousness" and less speculative component, they are not so much increased in 2009, as the other shares of the first echelon. Also at this moment we are very interesting for investment securities wholesale generating companies. The aim of growth on the MICEX index is now a mark of 1500p., After which we will likely see some correction. Today during the day will be published consumer price index in the UK in December (12.30msk) and the index of economic expectations of investors in Germany in January (13.00msk), as well as sales in U.S. retail chains last week (16.55msk). log in and see the material;; 2; user rc06ated material at 3. Analyst Ratings

Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port has published operating results for the year 2009. During this period the company turnover increased by 6,0%. This liquid cargo turnover increased by 6,6%, bulk - by 40,0%, while container throughput decreased by 38,4%. "We appreciate the operating results for the NCSP in 2009 as moderately positive. The freight turnover of Russian seaports in the 11 months of 2009 increased more significantly than the NCSP - on 9,0% against 6,0% in the NCSP. However, the operating performance of the NCSP look much better than the average for Transport ", - analyst IK" Finam "Konstantin Romanov. Vice President EMAlliance Sergei Karaulov reported that the main shareholder - Auburn Investments - the IPO plans to place among the investors up to 25% of the shares instead of the previously planned 10-15%. Increase the placed shares due to the high demand of investors. "We commend the increased offerings EMAlliance, as this will increase the liquidity of shares on the secondary market. Nevertheless, we note that the company is not issuing new shares. As a result, the company does not use the IPO as an opportunity to attract the necessary financing for the investment program capital ", - said in a daily" Finam ". largest retailers recorded the traditional increase in sales for December. This is mainly affected segment of the grocery retail market, which was justified Pre-New Year wedge population. Manual X5 Retail Group notes fairly strong results in December, but the absolute figures the company plans to open on January 19. While a public retailers reported only Magnet - sales growth up to December amounted to about 22,8% in ruble terms, while significantly increasing the rate of growth in comparison with November. "We note that the public retailers continue to increase revenue significantly outperformed the overall market. The latest data published by Rosstat, the dynamics of retail sales show drop in turnover in real terms in January-November 2009 to 5,7% (a drop in November was about 6.4%). We believe that the current high growth rates three public networks grocery retailers - Magnet, Dixie Group, X5 Retail - will continue in 2010 due to high dynamics of discovery "- predicts Sergei Phylchenkov of Finam . More information on these and other analysts" comments Finam you can refer to the section "Investments" log in and see the material;; Your score will be the first! Analyst Ratings

Stocks Buy (the remaining 1 /3 limit) ordinary shares of "Gazprom" (GAZP RX) in the case of quotations to reduce 184.5-185.0 rub. with the immediate goal of 205.0 rubles. Maintain long positions in ordinary shares "LUKOIL" (LKOH RX) with the immediate goal in 1800 rubles. Save the remaining (2 /3 limit) long positions in preferred shares of Transneft "(TRNFP RX) with the immediate goal of 27700 rubles., in the event of a record profit of 1 /2 of available positions. Buy (the remaining 1 /3 limit) ordinary shares of FGC (FEES RX) in the case of reduction of quotations to 0.330-0.332 rubles. with the immediate goal of 0,360 rubles., in the event of a record profit of 1 /2 of available positions. sell (for the remaining 1 /3 limit) of the March futures on the RTS index (VEH0) in the case of growth of quotations of up to 1585-1590 points with the immediate goal in 1510 points in the event of a record profit of 1 /2 positions available. Raw save short positions in the February futures on oil WTI (CLG0) with the immediate goal of $ 76.70 and protective take profit on a mark of $ 80.80. double short positions in the March contract for natural gas (NGH0) in the case of growth of quotations of up to $ 5.80-5.85 from the immediate goal of $ 5.20 and stop loss on a mark of $ 6.10. log in and see the material;; 6; users rated material on 3,2. Analyst Ratings

season records while not happy Russia On Friday, Russia"s stock market fell slightly: the RTS index has lost 0,17% day and night are 0,07% and the MICEX index fell by 0,2%. Trading volumes in total for the RTS stock exchange amounted to $ 4.44 billion, of which $ 2.3 billion accounted for the tools of the derivatives market, turnover of the MICEX index was 42.68 billion rubles. better market looks telecommunications sector (1.6% on the MICEX sectoral indices), which is definitely plucked up courage after the official count of MGTS and Comstar for the exchange of assets between holding company Svyazinvest and Sistema and good financial reporting MRK. America and Europe Stock indexes of the New World fell 0,9-1,25%, the indices of the Old World have fallen by an average of 0,9%. Macroeconomic statistics can be called neutral, but not on it now focuses all his attention (it will continue until January 27 when the Fed will comment on its decision on interest rates). Report JPMorgan Chase was better than analysts" expectations, but almost all the profits realized from transactions with securities - the traditional activities stagnate. raw materials, currency and so on Industrial metals at the auctions in London fell slightly, steel prices hold near their highs, gold prices dropped to $ 1130, oil prices collapsed below $ 80 on $ 2, the U.S. dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies, which puts additional pressure on commodity markets. Statistics and Reporting On the occasion of Martin Luther King Day holiday in the U.S. today, but because the information plan Monday promises to be quiet and calm, however, Monday, in most cases it really is. Forecast publicly traded on Russia"s stock market can be expected to break down 0,5-0,75%, due to the negative dynamics in commodity markets and confused the dynamics of foreign stock sites. Is not the first month of correction arises: if the statements will continue to go moderate, and statistics will be neutral, then an abscess may well explode. We can hardly expect large-scale financial disasters, but twenty per cent down from current levels, we may well see - it would be perfectly normal and natural, and, to some extent, even useful for the market. MICEX updated local maxima, but stay on them could not. The level of 1455 points can be called a kind of resistance, is located just above the upper limit of the uptrend. log in and see the material;; 3; user rated material on 4,3. Analyst Ratings

market of Russia will be at the mercy of oil prices Today, at the opening sale of Russia"s market will continue, because of the deteriorated after the completion of trading on domestic platforms on Friday outside the background. American session results are negative: the leading index has lost about 1%. The reason for the sales in the U.S. market provided the report JP Morgan: the company"s revenue was below forecasts. Reducing U.S. indices are already in quotes Russian securities issuers, so that a neutral impact on the dynamics of the domestic market. U.S. index futures advanced to the symbolic plus compared with the levels at which the eve of Russia"s closed market. At the Asian sites dominate the negative sentiment due to publish a report, the financial structure of the United States. If the mood in world markets are neutral - negative for the Russian sites in nature, the dynamics of oil prices will sharply - a negative influence. Futures for Brent crude dropped below $ 77 per barrel, the levels of late last year. At the cost of "black gold" continues to recoup the rapid growth of oil and petroleum products in the U.S., despite the weather conditions in America. Besides, the reason for the correction in oil prices from the annual maximum is the statistics on the U.S. economy and the strengthening of the dollar against the euro. Corrective sentiment on global stock markets have recently become worse. Season reporting does not provide the expected support. The situation in Russia market is complicated gepami up, formed earlier this year. Many blue chips are traded in the overbought zone - as well as the MICEX index, the aim of which is the lower boundary of the trend 1370 - 1380 points. Today, after a negative start on the market can be formed slight rebound. The reason for the massive purchases can be a possible recovery in oil prices. Outside the background during the trading day is likely to be stable, the important statistic data is expected. On the U.S. market trades will not be undertaken in connection with a national holiday, which will reduce the activity of investors on the Russian sites. Shares of the financial sector early in the session can be traded worse than the market, since U.S. securities at the sites of banks have come under pressure from the report JP Morgan - he was first among the financial reports and lower investor expectations for the forthcoming results of other issuers. better market could once again look like the paper metallurgists. If the earlier action against the industry were growing demand from large investors, today the driver of growth will be the situation in the commodities market where futures for industrial metals have grown substantially since the end of trading on Russia"s market. In the absence of ideas in the most liquid securities market participants can re-think of the energy and telecom stocks. log in and see the material;; 2; user rated material at 3. Analyst Ratings