FOREX and Financial Crisis

U.S. markets open in the "plus" Today, we expect a positive opening on U.S. markets. In the first minutes of trading the major indexes can add about 0.5%, after which the players will draw attention to statistics on an index of business activity in manufacturing (ISM Index, is expected to 55.2 points, the previous value of 55.9 points) in January, leaving at 18.00 MSK. to define further the dynamics of the markets. It should be noted that the players continue to ignore the statements of U.S. companies and are waiting for Paul Volcker"s speech in Congress, which will be held Zavriev. traded on the American sites have opened growth of the major indexes, helped by data on U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter, which turned out better than expected. In the future markets have been supported by positive data on business activity index of Chicago and University of Michigan consumer sentiment, but it was not enough to continue growth. After the first hour of trading, during which the main indexes added about 1%, the markets faced a wave of sales. As a result, by the middle of the day indices returned to levels close Thursday, and at the end of trading left in negative territory. As a result, the indices Dow Jones and S P500 lost 0,53% and 0,98% respectively, the NASDAQ index fell 1.45%. Today, the morning session, the index futures on S P500 showed restoration of quotations, but after the release of statistics on an index of personal spending, there has been a slight decrease, resulting in a 17.00 contract is trading at 1,075.5 points. Meanwhile, Russia"s market returned to morning levels. By the current moment the MICEX index lost about 1%, dropping to a level of 1405.7 points. In leaders reduction Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, losing more than 2%. Better the market looks the regional telecom sector, the paper which demonstrate the growth of quotations. Itf1cshould be noted that bidding in the market place against a background of high volatility. Additional portion of "noise" comes on the market after the index of ISM. This statistics is likely to determine the dynamics of our sites at the closing. log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material at 3. Analyst Ratings

Good statistics on U.S. GDP, and also be better than expected consumer sentiment index and the University of Michigan index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, calculated by the Chicago Association of managers have not helped the U.S. market to remain in positive zone. The euphoria of the positive statistics closer to the end of the trading has been replaced by concerns about the situation in the euro area and the possibility of lowering the estimates for GDP, as was done in the III quarter. Adds the negative statements by the government of the PRC that the monetary authorities of China may resort to raising rates sooner than it will make the U.S. Federal Reserve. This will happen if the "consumer price inflation will exceed the level of the annual rate on bank deposits for two consecutive months. Meanwhile, according to Chinese authorities, Chinese banks have followed the requirements of collapse after a sharp increase in lending volume of loans disbursed during the first week of January and raised the reserve requirements as a result of the end of January the volume of loans fell sharply. Chinese stock market looks today, worse than other Asian sites, CSI 300 index fell 1.61%. European markets look fairly stable, the pan-European index Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is reduced by 0.44%. Banks, despite the news from China, are growing up. Barclays 2%, Royal Bank of Scotland 1.9%, Commerzbank 1.6%, Deutsche Bank 1.2%. Oil remains at the local minima with rising dollar. Spot Brent $ 71.62, WTI $ 72.89, futures in positive territory at 0.8%. Rossyisky market opened 1% lower against the external negative, then tried to close the gap, but by the middle of the day again went to the opening levels. At 15:30 the MICEX index decreased by 1.4%, RTS index at 1.24%. Trading volume on the MICEX stock market average, 28 billion rubles. Much better than the market looking like the action of the regional telecom. No news on the sector, no, the players expect that the coefficients of exchange of shares of MRK shares of Svyazinvest will be beneficial to holders of preferred shares of MRK. "Pref Uralsvyazinform grow at 7.2%, SPC at 7.3%, Sibirtelecom 6.9%. strong enough now looks Gazprom, some support for the shares of the company has records for III quarter of IFRS. In this case it is difficult to assess unambiguously. Net profit rose 33% over the same period in 2008, but the main factor that influenced the size of the net profit has become currency translation gain of $ 42.5 bil. against losses of 35.8 billion rubles. year earlier. Revenues decreased by 7%, EBITDA declined by 41%. It shares the largest oil companies are falling,Rosneft -3% -2.4% Gazprom Neft, LUKOIL -2%. Also losing in the price of shares of steel companies, NLMK -3.9%, -2.9% Severstal, Norilsk Nickel -1.6%. Before the opening of trading in the U.S. market continues to oscillations around the mark of 1400 points on the MICEX, and then will wait for data on personal spending /income from the U.S. and reporting the largest oil and gas companies of Russia and the United States. In addition to Gazprom Rosneft will report in the United States will publish the results of Exxon Mobil. In addition to statistics on expenditures and household income, which will be released at 16:30, at 18:00 waiting for data on construction spending and the index of activity in the manufacturing sector ISM. While our market does not want to go below 1400 points, any reduction in the players quickly redeem. This is facilitated by a large amount of free liquidity and low interest rates on the interbank market. However, the fundamental situation is complicated, in addition to oil we should put pressure dynamics of the American market, which struck uptrend. If in the coming days, players in the United States will continue to play a fall, we follow them. log in and see the material;; 2; user rated material 5. Analyst Ratings

Today we have quite an interesting market, not all securities are falling, the cause of this is good its financial statements, in particular, investors responded positively to the results of Gazprom for 9 months in 2009 under IFRS. On the market there is demand and growth in this paper. The acts Rosneft continue to sell, the situation surrounding the tax benefits for deposits in eastern Siberia, is strong enough influence on listed companies. For the same reason, minus traded securities "Surgutneftegas". Somewhat better feel shares of LUKoil. The fall in oil chips was 2.5%. Also in recent times looked bad action Uralkali, the company reported back in 2009. Investors expect that in the new year, capacity utilization will rise against the background of recovery in demand around the world. Let me add paper telecommunications sector. Excessive demand seen in the actions Uralsvyazinform, which added about 4.4% and exceeded the level of 90 kopecks. As leaders of growth also quotes "Volgatelekoma" (4,86%), Rostelecom (1,33%) - this clears the same news as last week - the reorganization of Svyazinvest. In general, Russia"s market is still quite weak, and in all sales to European markets and negative futures on U.S. indexes on domestic platforms decline is continuing. We were unable to break through the level in 1360 on the MICEX index, which means consolidation around this level will continue. In order for the RF market went below, must be serious and substantive reasons, which do not. Therefore, I think the market will stabilize and continue its growth in the near future. log in and see the material;; 7; users rated material on 3,7. Analyst Ratings

Futures on "VTB" (VBH0): futures on OJSC "VTB" in the morning is in the corridor basis 20 - 30 points, to 13-00 Moscow time futures decreased by 0,3% (Fig. 1). Fig. 1. VTB. Basis in the day. The number of open positions compared with the opening of the morning was down 400, and at 13-00 Moscow time, the value of this indicator amounted to 40400 (Fig. 2). Fig. 2. VTB. Open positions within days. In the long term the market remains in a downtrend. The volatility of the March Putov "outside money" is lower than the volatility of the March call "out of money." Thus, the current market, we are witnessing "volatility smirk" (Fig. 3), which indicates that in the short-term opportunity and growth, and decline. Fig. 3. VTB. Exchange IV within days. If we talk about the number of open positions, the maximum number remains VB7500BO0 (put max, Fig. 4) and VB6500BC0 (call max, Fig. 4) strike, whf90ile the absolute values of these strikes do not allow the focus to these levels as in the fully formed. " Fig. 4. Levels of optional support /resistance. At the current market conditions seen equiprobable possibility of movement both up and down. log in and see the material;; Your score will be the first! Analyst Ratings

Objectives of RTS Index futures for his fall: 1) The green horizontal line - 143 500 points on RTS Index futures. a. Achieved. We look forward to consolidation. 2) The blue horizontal line - 127 850 points on the RTS Index futures. time to achieve this goal: a. 5 - 10 working days. 3) red horizontal line - 118 500 points on RTS Index futures. time to achieve this goal: a. 25 trading days. Recommendations for today: 1) Buy at 143 500 points. Stop-loss is set to mark 144 000 points. Evening session on FORTS January 29, 2010: Following the Friday evening session, the futures on the RTS index fell by 2300 points. Volume - at an average level. Today it is possible to continue the consolidation between the levels 150 000 and 143 500 points. In a significant decrease in the shares of the Savings Bank can not believe it until the "prefecture does not paint a picture of a much weaker than the one we see now. We look forward to achieving a pair of Eurodollar 1.3691 level, to buy futures on a couple evrorubl. log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material at 2. Analyst Ratings

previous session In Friday trading on Russian exchanges closed in positive territory: RTS 0,62%, MICEX 1,10%. After the morning opening of the negative indices on domestic platforms have continued to further decrease. Closer to the dinner there was a small rebound from day lows, but, nevertheless, share prices showed a further decline. Only after the release of positive data from the U.S. market reacted to certain growth, which indexes finished trading in positive territory. The result: oil and gas sector: Gazprom 2.27%, Lukoil 1,85% -0,52% Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz -1.52%. Banking Sector: Savings 1.45%, VTB 1,48%. Sector-ferrous metallurgy: -0,23% GMK Norilsk Nickel, Polyus Gold - 0,54%. European indexes completed auctions in the affirmative: Britain"s FTSE100 0,83%, German DAX 1,24%. American Stock Exchange have closed in the negative. On Friday, went out the following data: preliminary GDP in the 4 th quarter grew by 5,7% (to /k), is expected to grow by 4,6%, while the previous value was 2.2%. The index of business activity in January rose to 61.5 points, while analysts predicted 57.4 points, the previous value of - 58.7 points. The index of consumer confidence in January rose to 74.4 points, the forecast was 73 points, and the previous value of - 72.5 points. American sites from the first minutes of trading showed positive dynamics emerged against the background of positive data, but later indexes in negative territory left and finished the day in the red. The result: DowJones -0,52%, SnP500 -0,98%, Nasdaq -1,45%. Before opening Asian session demonstrates the dynamics of differently directed: Japanese Nikkei225 -0,39%, Chinese Shanghai Composite 2,13%, the Australian Index All Ordinaries -0,78%. U.S. futures SnP500 0,08%. Quotes of the ruble is now located at around 30,26 (Forex). Oil brand Brent 71,18 (-0,39%). A pair of Euro /USD. traded near 1.39. Recommendations expect a mixed opening of the domestic sites. External background can be described as moderately negative. American sites have closed in the negative, the Asian session demonstrates the dynamics of differently directed, quotes, oil continued to decline and are near the mark at $ 71 per barrel. It should be noted that in the late afternoon are expected news from overseas, which will make their adjustments, and we do not exclude to see increased volumes and a more definite trend. Nevertheless, the fundamental prerequisites for such aggressive growth, we do not see why the formation of medium-term portfolio now does not seem appropriate. Expected data for today : 12:00 index of business activity in the manufacturing sectof1br (Euro Zone), 12:30 index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (United Kingdom), 16:30 personal expenses (U.S.) , 16:30 personal income (dollars), 18:00 construction costs (U.S.), 18:00 index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (U.S.). log in and see the material;; Your score will be the first! Analyst Ratings

Judging from the external news stripe background, shake after the weekend and quietly enter into the working channel of Russia speculators fail. As usual, will jump right off the bat. Preserve and increase with an acrobatic sketch your trading account will be difficult. For technical analysis of oil prices, major U.S. indexes pair euro-dollar, and now the picture on the chart of gold - all spoke in support of domestic "bears". However, the restoration of the market on Friday evening at the many domestic schedules a hand "bulls". The MICEX index went backto the strategic line of 1410/1405 points, Gazprom shares not only to maintain local support 178,8 /179 rubles (Line "neck" looming in mid-December figure of "head-shoulders), but also encroach on the local resistance of 186 rubles. Shares of Lukoil denser entrenched over support 1600 rubles, and the paper of MMC Norilsk Nickel above the level of 4450 rubles, ordinary paper "Savings Bank" over the mark of 84,9 /85 rubles. Only securities of Rosneft, which is in the middle of last week, somewhere picked up a negative charge, have actively sought not for the resistance of 237.7 rubles (EMA100 moving average on the daily chart of the issuer), and to support the uptrend from November 2008 in the District 228/225 rubles. Knowing the specific nature of Russia"s stock market, in this scenario, we do not dare open the "short" positions, provided that the tender will be opened immediately in the morning with a good gepom in 1,5-2% down. And the best will wait for popular papers have mentioned above supports. But if the shares fall into our portfolio, we are very narrowly arrange the "foot" by limiting the maximum loss of 0,5%. log in and see the material;; 3; user rated material on 4,7. Analyst Ratings

Monday will test the lows of last week The American share indexes on Friday completed a new auction fall. Neither the strong GDP data for the 4 th quarter (5,7% while the forecast 4,7%), no positive makrostatistika (ISM Chicago 61.5 - a record in November of year 2005) or very strong corporate reporting is not allowed stock indicators complete the week and month in the positive zone. Perhaps the stock market simply signals that in the future we should expect slowing economic activity in the global economy. fears of investors concerning the debt of European countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal, took the euro to the new lowest level against the dollar (1.3850%). Strengthening of the dollar and falling stock market indices exert pressure on the oil quotations mixture Brent, which dropped to a mark of $ 71.2 per barrel. A key indicator of business activity (PMI) in January in China has shown to decrease the level of 55.8 against 56.6 in December. These data also do not add optimism on the stock and commodity markets. By the way, the commodity index Goldman Sachs (GSCI), which includes 24 kinds of raw products, in January showed a decrease of 6,2%, which was the strongest decline since December of the year 2008. Copper in the previous month has lost 6,6%, and oil - 6,8%. opening of trading on Russia"s stock market on Monday we will see a 1.5% gepom down. I believe that the MICEX index earlier this week, may try again on the strength levels of support last week (1375 on). In leaders of the paper will reduce the oil and mining companies. Great influence on the course of today"s trading could have our Central Bank, in whose hands will deter attacks on Russia"s ruble exchange rate (USD /RUB 30,44). I believe that today in our market share will dominate the sellers, and therefore, better stay out of positions in the market. Nevertheless, purchase, we will resume in the coming days. In the 16-30 waiting for data on personal income /spending Americans. At the same time leaves the December price index PCE. In the 18-00 waiting for publication of the December data on the cost of construction, as well as the January ISM index in the manufacturing sector (forecast: 55.6). log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material at 4. Analyst Ratings

Two years ago (before the crisis), the majority of Ukrainian citizens rather soft on the activities of the NBU, porugivaya it, of course, the exchange rate shocks (often unfair, but also unfair to take off his responsibility for inflation). In autumn 2009 the situation changed. The credibility of the NBU started to crumble, as, indeed, the credibility of financial and banking system as a whole. Because of the authority, which generally trusted as people, and business, the NBU in the eyes of the "small" Ukrainians became the main destroyer of the monetary and financial system of Ukraine and the value of the hryvnia. Begun a witch-hunt ". To understand that, "who is to blame and what to do, you need to analyze the activities of the NBU in emergency preparedness," normal "situation and compare it with conventional methods of central banks in the civilized countries. When the crisis hit, the National Bank, unfortunately, came to politics, and not only ... course analysis of the NBU would be incomplete without an analysis of the policy of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine as the second of the major organs of the central monetary authorities of the country, responsible for cost savings, equitable distribution (redistribution) and augmentation of the financial wealth of citizens through its focus on lending and investing primarily in the real sector of economy of Ukraine. financial system of Ukraine will be another article, but now I want to note a fundamental shortcoming of these systems - injustice. Emphasize the monetary and financial system of the country are unfair and even immoral ... start with an example in the banking sector. In the country in 2009 became insolvent (bankrupt candidates) 18 banks. The three decided to recapitalize the bank (save) at the expense of the state (ie taxpayers money), two more "attached" to one of the first three - "RODOVID." Consider the reality: there are three companies that before the crisis to raise funds (say, 10 million) in the accounts of their banks for the payment of wages. The first plant opened by a trio of banks-the lucky ones. Second - in pair of banks, it would seem, poluschastlivtsev. Third - in one of the 13 rogue out of the 18 insolvent. Question: Which of these three companies will receive money back and pay the salary? Answer the following. First - will soon be all the money with a probability of 100%. Second - do not get anything with a probability of 99% (accession does not apply to legal persons - clients of the bank). Third - do not get anything with a probability of 90% - about the experience of the liquidation of banks in Ukraine. Or another case (also real). The oligarch has a deposit of $ 10 million in one of three banks that have decided to recapitalize (I repeat, at taxpayers" expense). The pensioner, who sold an apartment for 150 thousand dollars, decided to put them in one of the banks in the third group on deposit in anticipation of a complex operation and treatment. Question: Who will help the state? Of course, the oligarch! He will get back all their money (from taxpayers). Do not forget state and pensioners - approximately one and a half, he also receives 150 thousand, only hryvnia. If, of course, survive ... third example. Millionaire, pension fund and the enterprise society, blind people had accounts at a bank that failed by 100 thousand UAH. Question: Who gets the money back? Course, a millionaire! He will get his 100 thousand, but pensioners and the blind will not get anything ... The rights of legal entities we have not reserved any way! do not want to further describe the real situation, for example, about how to allocate funds to refinance the banks, or shared currency resources. There, the rules of logic and justice you also find. The best adjectives to describe such a banking system will be cynicism and immorality. But we should not think that our fiscal system is worthy of other words. Let us take, for example, the pension system, which is bursting at the seams, and disrupts the state budget. Start with an example: two pensioners - citizens of Ukraine to the seniority of 40 years, retired with the same salary for the last ten years may receive a pension: one - 1000 UAH. And another - 50 ths.! Furthermore, you can retire in 45 years, and 50, and 60, receive 20 thousand grn. pensions, still have excellent health and still working two jobs with an income 100 thousand UAH.! You can earn 80 thousand UAH. month and do not make contributions to the pension fund (and do more than a million "ChPshnikov", and not only them). You can be the lowest in the world of retirement age, the lowest wages in Europe and the world"s highest state pensions and benefits "state elite", which is also on the size order of magnitude greater than in the civilized world! very "touching" in this context, it looks like the opposition representatives of the "state elite, to ensure themselves an average monthly pension from 25 to 75 thousand UAH. try to storms in January under the walls of the Cabinet of Ministers to organize meetings of pensioners (but worth it reason about a dozen students) with a call to raise the normal pension at 600 -- 700 UAH. 10-15% and thus increase the number of wealthy people who do not makepayments to the pension fund at all! But the situation looks particularly cynical, when a retired couple from the "state elite" ( "she" aged 55 years and "he" - 60) with a total pension 50 thousand UAH. a month thinking about what is best to buy - a third car or second cottage. And at this time is not less than 40 (!) Of young families with children whose family income on average of 4 thousand UAH. Should fund this retirement haven for the elite. Truly a feast during the plague. All the talk about the fact that life expectancy for men in Ukraine is 62 years old, have nothing to do with the normal retirement age: 65 years for men and women. You have to understand that our 60-year-old man likely to live to 80 years, almost the same as in France or the United States. The main reason for low life expectancy - high infant mortality, crime, drunkenness. What is not surprising at such an absurd system, when one impoverished operating funds are even more than one pensioner! high time to eliminate all the special pension system, to make all retirees equal. Want a great retirement - there is pension insurance or deduct private pension fund, invest in their future. You can give many more such examples. Why are only the problems of finance "Naftogaz" ... Our banking and financial systems are so grossly and crudely constructed, that move to the next, more professional level of analysis is difficult, but necessary. In the meantime, it is important to remember that if the activities of the monetary and financial authorities (and this is NBU and Finance Ministry) is not based on the principle of social justice, including justice between generations, then this power as a matter of fact, and in the eyes of the citizens is immoral power gang of robbers . So ordinary people and perceived power. Who is to blame? Even before the crisis, NBU activity was significantly different from the activities of other central banks as against the target functions, and on methods of monetary policy. But more on the principles and style of such policies. I want to be forewarned that the following assessment - it is not a criticism of staff or even the NBU leadership. This - statement of facts. As, however, finding and the fact that the NBU is still concentrates in itself the most qualified staff of the country and represents the most organized and capable state machine. Which can send its potential as for the good of the country, and on conservation of the situation, maintaining the status quo of the permanent crisis ... I"ll start with the main objective of the NBU, which is in accordance with the law as its main task, unlike other central banks of Europe, sees the stability of the national currency. That is responsible for the course (for which he was asked to) and inflation (for which he was not asked to, the claim, often unfairly, to the Government). In most European countries, central banks are responsible for price stability. I want to say that to control inflation, they are very successful. In some countries, such as the U.S., the Fed is responsible both for price stability, and support for the country"s economy by combating unemployment. methods of conducting monetary policy more NBU taken away from other, more successful central banks. It dominates the policy of inflation targeting, which takes place through changes in interest rates. When you need to stimulate the economy and saturate it with cheap credit resources of central banks (that is to be done in Ukraine and what is being done in all countries), interest rates, central banks reduced (now in the EU and the U.S., they are at the level 0,25-1 %). These rates of any bank, which performs standards and has a liquid bond (as a rule, these securities are rated AA or AAA), may take funds from the central bank for two weeks - money supply growth. If the bank has too much money, he can place them on deposit with the central bank at a rate slightly below the base interest rate. If the central bank believes that the economy is "overheated" (an important indicator of this is the level and dynamics of inflation), he raises, thereby making loans to commercial banks more expensive and difficult - the money supply shrinks. I want to emphasize that this mechanism works like a clock, without the intervention of officials, without preference or exceptions for certain banks. Rules for all alone. Our situation is different. Interest rate does not work, the rules change, moreover, the exception becomes the rule ... To regulate the money supply NBU frequently changing regulations on compulsory reserves for passive operation, and the rules of accounting (the worst method of regulating the money supply). In addition, spontaneous operations with currency interventions, and more recently - with the Government Bonds (often in order to "rescue" the government) creates a situation where it suggestion hryvnia increases sharply, then "suddenly" drops and she (UAH) becomes scarce. Such conditions not only help banks to their major active function - to lend to the economy and population (in 2009 lending fell by 2,1%), and vice versa, forcing them to engage in a "defensive" operations, with the most "close" the banks in such conditions are windfall to arbitrage ... important function of central banks is to oversee the activities of commercial banks to minimize their risks, which are easily transformed into the risks of the country (the world financial crisis is a vivid confirmation of that). In civilized countries have primary control over the activities of banks perform auditing companies with good reputation (as a rule, this "Big Four"). Employees of the central banks are studying reports of auditors, compare them with records of banks, prudential regulations, if necessary - to organize field tests.

For ordinary viewers Olympic Games -this entertaining and exciting festival of sport, but for the organizers of the Olympics, especially, is a financial-economic activity of the national scale. In addition, it is a great opportunity to show their country to tourists and potential investors with the best hand, raising its image and prestige on the world stage, so that the owners usually do not stint on the Games. Enjoy it must be said deytvitelno not cheap. would have stayed in their latest example - the Olympics in Turin in 2006. Games has been very successful in economic terms. Organizers have spent 707 million euros and 974.4 million earned This success has surprised many experts, and Canadians seem to be difficult to achieve something similar. In 2006, Canadian Prime Minister Gordon Campbell stated that the global sporting event will cost his country $ 600 million turned out that this figure is far from reality. official budget Olympics 2010 in Vancouver, according to recent estimates, is $ 1.76 billion (in the previous version of this amount was for 127 million less). Vancouver Olympic Committee (VANOK) also estimated that this amount be offset by direct income from the Games, that is, sponsorship deals, the sale of broadcasting rights, tickets, various goods and so on. Thus, the costs and revenues from the Olympics counterbalance each other. Contingencies However, this conclusion is only based on official data VANOK, but in reality the Olympics will cost Canadians much more expensive. This does not tire of reminding opponents of the Games, which in Canada found a lot. They argue that in times of economic crisis of such huge sums could be spent on more useful things than the organization of sports competitions and a desire to impress the scale to other countries. According to their calculations, the real cost of the Games approaching $ 6 billion, as many infrastructural facilities, which are not included in the budget, in fact, constructed or reconstructed it for the Olympics, but the means they come from the pockets of taxpayers. These objects include highway Sea to Sky, construction of which cost nearly a billion dollars, a huge shopping and business center (Vancouver Convention Exhibition centre), the modernization of the railway Canada Line, high-speed trains that will serve the Olympic Village, and so on.