FOREX and Financial Crisis

Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, has instructed the Ministry of Energy, the System Operator and FSK elaborate on the inclusion of the first to unit Sayano-Shushenskaya HPP in Basic mode. "We believe that uttered by commission vice-premier shows your hard work to restore control to the Sayan-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power station on the governmental level. This increases the likelihood of implementation of its earlier plans, under which in the first quarter of 2010 is planned to connect the fifth and sixth hydraulic units. Connection restored hydropower will reduce the financial burden on RusHydro, as well as reduce the technical risks associated with nonstandard work station ", - the analyst Finam Denis Kruglov. Gazprom announced a settlement with Poland on the supply and transit of natural gas. Gazprom agreed to increase gas supplies to Poland from 9 to 11 billion cubic meters. m. per year. The Polish side, in turn, will write off debts to Gazprom, the size of which is not disclosed, but according to some sources, may reach $ 350 million volume of gas transit through Poland is about 30 billion cubic meters. m. per year. "For Gazprom, the settlement of the conflict was a strategically important task, since there was a probability of events in the Ukrainian scenario in January 2009. As in the case of Ukraine, in our view, it is Gazprom was forced to make greater concessions than the Polish side. Although it is not very favorable terms of the agreement with Poland, eliminating the risk of disruption in transit, in our opinion, is more important achievement, "- commented an analyst at the investment company" Finam "Alexander Eremin. President of Sberbank Gref said thatit is time to privatize state-owned banks. He suggested to begin the process of privatization of the Savings Bank. Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin believes that the time of privatization has not yet come, and it should start with VTB. "We have a positive attitude towards privatization of the Savings Bank, as it will relieve him of much of the social functions that lead to increased income of the bank. In addition, the placement of the Savings Bank will increase investor interest in them, which will reflect positively on their quoted market prices. It Nevertheless, we believe that the state will not sell a controlling stake in Sberbank in the foreseeable future, as many system-state-owned companies in need of a major state bank, which could carry out lending to non-market conditions "- sure, Konstantin Romanov of" Finam ". Asha MOH plans to complete the modernization of steel capacity and begin to hot testing of new equipment the total capacity of 1 million tons of steel per year. Decommissioning of obsolete open-hearth furnace is scheduled for the second half of 2010. "The replacement of equipment should have a positive impact on production efficiency and profitability of the company. Be subjected to significant changes in the structure of consumption of metallurgical raw materials - in particular, will multiply the consumption of scrap from the current 40-45 tons per month to 100 tonnes by the end of the year. We commend the completion of the modernization process Asha MH, and believe that it will positively affect both the volume of production and financial results of the company, "- analyst predicts" Finam "Vladimir Sergievsky. More information on these and other analysts" comments Finam you can refer to the section "Investments" log in and see the material;; Your score will be the first! Analyst Ratings

Reducing demand for oil intensified the competition among traders. Market participants are trying to equalize the price of its own gas stations with the main rival - the group "Privat". For the first time they did last week, when Igor Kolomoisky, who lost access to cheap petroleum products in large opte, picked them up at their stations by 4%. But this is the price equation can be considered a temporary phenomenon, since last week Dnipropetrovsk businessman has invented a new way to access to affordable oil. tough competition for consumers started last summer. Its instigator was Igor Kolomoisky, gas stations which ( "Sentosa Oil, Maveks", ANP, etc.), high octane fuel was sold at 20-30 kopecks. /L cheaper than other market participants. He could afford such dumping by the fact that buy raw material under their control the country"s largest state-owned company OAO Ukrnafta about $ 20/barrel. This disposition did not suit the opponents "Privata", which bought the black gold at market prices (about $ 70/barrel). So they decided to block access to cheap raw materials from Dnepropetrovsk, as well as have the consent of the Ministry of Economy to amend the conditions of the auction, which realized Ukrainian oil. example, in August 2009 Office of Bohdan Danylyshyn proposed to tie the starting price on the domestic black gold to the world"s quotes. "The initial cost should not vary by more than 5% of the average world oil prices over the last 10 days prior to the auction," - said the ministry. If such rules are in force, Igor totally would have lost its price advantage in the market. Therefore, "Privat" pretended to heed the wishes of the officials, and began with the September 2009 to buy oil at auctions twice as expensive as usual (up to $ 50/barrel). Economy Ministry has decided to abandon plans to reform the rules for bidding on its sale. But parallel Dnipropetrovsk businessman has invented another way to savings, which allowed him to maintain price leadership in the retail market of petroleum products. Controlled "Privatu" Kremenchug oil refinery plant switched to production of so-called components of gasoline KB-92 and CB-95 (less than counterparts of traditional high-quality petroleum products that can sell to consumers). This Kremenchug oil refinery began a monthly savings of around 50 million UAH. Excise on: the rate of charge for the components is 20 euros /tonne (for freight gasoline - 110 euros /ton). But a month ago, Cabinet announced his intention to block this channel cheap petroleum.

Futures on shares of OAO "LUKOIL" (LKH0): in the morning futures LKH0 is the basis of 100 points, while reducing to 12-30 Moscow time on 1% (Fig. 1). Fig. 1. History of the basis (within days). The number of open positions with the beginning of the auctions has fallen to 1500 and was 134 000 contracts (Fig. 2). Fig. 2. Changing the open position (within days). In the long term the market remains in a downtrend. The volatility of the March Putov "outside money" is lower than the volatility of the March call "outside money" (Fig. 3). We are witnessing "volatility smirk", which signals that in the near future we can see how the growth and decline. Fig. 3. Exchange IV (within days). If we talk about the number of open positions, the maximum number - of putakh LK17000BO9 (put max, Fig. 4) and Collen LK18000BC9 (call max, Fig. 4). Fig. 4. Levels of optional support /resistance. The most likely scenario: a reduction in the area 14000. Least likely scenario: growth in the region 18000. log in and see the material;; 3; user rated material on 3,3. Analyst Ratings

Recall that at the end of last week, the Finance Ministry changed its order of leadership at the mill. And at six in the morning on Monday, according to deputies from the Party of Regions, there burst into the police and began to destroy everything. Sami "the Regionals, despite such an early hour watching the capture plant, claiming that they knew about him on Friday. In their version of misconduct around the plant "Ukraine" were committed BYuT willing to print an additional half million ballots, then to falsify the election results. Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko states that"it is not on the ballot, we are talking about defending the business, close to the Party of Regions. Neither of which additional circulation (papers) can be no question. " According to him, "the fact is that the Polygraph" Ukraine ", in particular, printing passports and other documents of strict accountability for public use. MIA actually blamed the conflict deputy Vasyl HRYTSAK close to the consortium EGAPS, who allegedly refused to print a passport in January, as a result we now have 60 thousand people have paid money, but can not obtain a passport, because EGAPS effectively using its monopoly position and influence in the former director of printing plant "Ukraine", refused to meet its obligations without prepayment. Can Ukraine secretly print, say, a half million ballots and inject them into the ballot box to "bridge the gap" in the polls? If so, how? On this we asked the experts. can disrupt the elections on separate sites Alexander Chernenko, chairman of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine: very problematic unnoticed dopechatat a half million ballots. That"s several tons of paper! Because the alleged dopechatyvanie ballots - is nothing more than fiction. Also can not imagine how such a number of ballots thrown into the ballot box. Plus we should not forget that in every way via newsletter in hard copy printed parcel number and county. Another thing: Is it possible, controlling plant "Ukraine" does not print enough ballots, or print them on time, or just pack ballots for one area in the package to another. And if the numbers do not coincide with the number of plot is automatically invalidated the vote. Therefore, if we are talking about control plant "Ukraine", then it is not because of the possibility to print extra ballots as to disrupt the elections in some areas - by a lack of ballots, or delays in printing. "s impossible! "Ukraine" - a secure object Andrew Mager, Vice Chairman of the CEC I"m already tired of repeating that it is impossible to print additional ballots, because the Polygraph "Ukraine" - is a secure object, which is not as simple as someone somewhere believes implement additional printing of ballot papers except under a contract between the CEC and combine. Then these sheets with the company pouches are delivered to the relevant constituencies and the representative of the CEC protocol transmits such ballots territorial election commission at its meeting. Because abuse is somehow impossible. I am not an expert on rigging Sergey Kivalov, ex-chairman of the CEC (conveyed through his press secretary) I am not an expert on rigging. I do not know the plans of our opponents. In the media heard reports that the team of Prime Minister attempted to illegally change the leadership of the plant "Ukraine" to print an additional 1.5 million ballots. Everybody realizes if print extra money, then the state will begin inflation. And if in such a huge number of extra ballot papers will appear, it will lead to chaos and destabilize the electoral process. Moreover, this extra weight papers can be applied in different ways, including as a provocation against our political strength. By analogy with the banknotes, the most important in the production of ballots - a matrix with which they are printed.

Americans spilling down. The only hope for "bulls" - on today"s GDP data Americans yesterday still could not resist. Fall on major stock indicators exceeded 1%, Index S P500 updated at least the previous day, falling below the 100-day moving average. Given that the S P500 futures traded to a further decrease of 0.5% and falling Asian stock indicators in individual cases (Nikkei and KOSPI) exceed 2%, the prospect of opening of tenders in Russia is not happy. This confirms our view that talking about the end of a downward correction in Russia"s stock market, as well as on world stock markets, is premature. Expected tonight, the first official estimates of GDP growth in the U.S. 4 square. 2009, of course, can radically change the mood in the market. Everything will depend on how close to published figures will be close to the optimistic forecasts, JPMorgan (5.7%) and Goldman Sachs (5.8%), which differ substantially from the consensus (4.7%). Recommend a medium-term investors to stay in the cache, and the speculators to close open 2-3 days ago Longhi. log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material at 3.

external environment continues to deteriorate On Thursday, Russia"s stock market managed to end the day in positive territory (MICEX trade results grew by 1.1%), with the growth of domestic market could not even enough to prevent significant deterioration in global stock pads after the publication of negative data on the labor market in the United States. Good demand for the newly observed in the steel sector: Severstal (6%), NLMK (5%), Raspadskaya (3%), while worse than the market looked like paper producers of precious metals - Pole and polymetallic, lost 1% in a growing market . The American stock market was closed again yesterday in a notable disadvantage: in the fall of the leaders this time were the stocks of technology companies on a background of weak reporting by Motorola and some disappointment provided the dafd4y before yesterday novelty Apple. Following the strengthening of the dollar to a six-month peak against the euro continued to slide down commodity prices: the market could not support even the news about the confidence pereutverzhdenii Senate candidate B. Bernanke to head Fed. This morning the picture on the world markets again seems rather sad: the majority of Asian sites, as well as futures on U.S. stock indexes traded in significant minus. log in and see the material;; 2; user rated material on 2,5. Analyst Ratings

As you know, I"m on Fridays not traded actively. And if you happen on this day some Movements in my trading accounts, it is only because that triggered the suspension of mechanical protection by the "blue chips". Or I manually close the position on the paper "second tier", if they dropped support for the landmark, and has already expired temporary filter, given the fact that they change their mind. Although today, looking at the external news background, I"m not sure that I can fulfill this rule their trading strategy. If we succeed, I would like to "hook" with an eye on next week Gazprom shares in the 177/176 rubles. But not the whole amount, planned to spend on these shares, but only one-third. Since, in my opinion, no matter how the events developed in our stock market, shares of "Gazprom" will still try to go to the more important support 170/169 rubles. still attractive for me to look in speculative securities of FGC UES, while they are more expensive than the level of 0,329 rubles, shares of Transneft over 23800/23600 support the ruble. And in the speculative, and with an eye on the medium term, I would have considered the paper "Polyus Gold" on the level of 1480 rubles. Especially the opening of trading yesterday, shares of the company, between the case clearly asserted themselves, shooting higher local resistance to 1,550 rubles. However, before the trading session, there is still time to think and to build a precise trading plan. Most likely, I will put a "trap" for buying and I will deal with their backlog of chores per week - will bring in the order of the analyst on the site, will produce a weekly review, read the new students a lecture about the beloved figure of technical analysis. And I have one very important thing. Yesterday is dead, the great American writer Jerome Salinger. He created many stories and novels, including my favorite "The Catcher in the Rye", which is too poppy, which is too naive. But it"s very favorite. Eh, if not routine, I"d fallen in with a book on a comfortable leather couch, to pay tribute to the great artists. But, alas, in the workplace - this is not acceptable. Although, to include quietly in the player audiobook me no harm. And no matter how formed trading day, I"ll be nice to smile when the main character will pronounce its refrain of the phrase: "Hmm, well, kill" in response to the comments of his small, but wise beyond his years sisters. log in and see the material;; Your score will be the first! Analyst Ratings

 At the world"s stock markets yesterday, there will be no dynamics. European markets fell on average by 1%. U.S. stock indicators, despite the weak statistics, completed trades in the positive zone. The reason for the improvement of the situation was the outcome of the Fed meeting, at which it was decided to keep the base interest rate at a minimal level even longer period of time. In addition, Barack Obama, speaking in Congress, called to introduce additional tax breaks, as well as increased government expenditure in order to support the U.S. economy. Indices Asia-Pacific region closed growth this morning, the Japanese Nikkei 225 ended the trading session 1.58%. U.S. futures also grew up this morning. On this optimistic backdrop, most Russian stocks opened higher. At 16.30 IST the leaders enhance the action of the banking sector: an Sberbank (2.7%), VTB cs (3,9%), as well as shares RusHydro, which added 3.89% to yesterday"s close. Quotes of oil remain under pressure, which is one of the major constraints on growth in the Russia market. Oil looks weak, respectively, strengthens their position the U.S. dollar. At this conjuncture the MICEX index went up to his local resistance to 1,420 items, RTS index has reached the lower limit of resistance 1480-1500 and 16.30 IST traded at around 1,475 points. At 16.30 came from the U.S. statistics on the number of requests for unemployment benefits - the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 8 thousand, predicted a decline of 32 thousand Also out data on orders for durable goods: in December they increased by 0,3%, is expected to grow by 2%. Despite the fact that the statistics came out clearly unfavorable for growth, sales of active sites in the world is not observed. Russia"s participants also behave quite restrained in this situation - seems to have great hope for growth. In the case of resumption of positive and penetration in the top level of the MICEX index points in 1420 can expect an ambitious attempt to breakdown of the January 1491 peak point. When pessimism prevails, and the indices go down, it"s likely to try again support the December 1360 test points. Recommendations for investors focused on short-term - no position. Recommendations for investors, focused on the medium term - without a position. High profitability - the result of a successful trading strategy. Choose the appropriate strategy in the Trade Center. log in and see the material;;

U.S. market throughout the session on Thursday to pick up, but could in the last hour of trading to make a leap up by 1%. Committee U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market has once again stated that he would keep "interest rates at extremely low levels for a long time," and February 1 as scheduled, will be closed a number of programs quantitative easing. The Fed believes that the conditions in the financial markets are improving and can reduce the amount of financial assistance. Barack Obama, in turn, in the keynote speech before Congress, said he would fight the budget deficit, in this connection will still be carried out health care reform that is causing much debate in the United States. In addition, the U.S. president expressed support for small business (for this purpose will be to send $ 30 billion, returned to the major financial companies in the program TARP) and conservation tax incentives. Obama"s statements supported the dollar, which traded at a maximum for the last 6 months. The growth of the dollar, however, does not bother investors, in addition to the stock markets and rising oil prices, futures 0.8%. Meanwhile, oil prices fell yesterday, despite a sharp reduction in stocks in the United States. Last week, oil fell by 3.9 million barrels., At the time, as analysts predicted the growth of oil reserves at 2.0 million Russia market is reacting briskly to improve the external background, adding about 2%. Positive European markets are much more restrained, the indices in positive territory at 0.5-0.8%. As leaders of the growth of bank shares. Barclays 4%, Royal Bank of Scotland 3.1%, Deutsche Bank 2.7%. In our favorites, listed in shares metallurgists. 6.2% of Severstal, NLMK 4.5%, TMK 4.3%. The second day running among the leaders of shares RusHydro 3.8%, which are supported by reports about the launch in the I quarter of this year, two rehabilitated hydropower Sayano-Shushenskaya GES. The positive dynamics of oil futures (which we no longer observed) positive effect on share prices of oil and gas companies. Surgutneftegas 2.6%, 2.5% Rosneft, Lukoil 2.1%, 1.9% of Gazprom. In the United States at 16:30 will be released from the labor market statistics on applications for unemployment benefits and orders for durable goods. If the positive dynamics of American futures continue, the market could be added, but the negative statistics greatly undermine the prospect of a quick recovery. understand how strong and long-term will be the current recovery will help the U.S. GDP data for the IV quarter, to be released tomorrow. The assessment will be provisional and, as we know, certainly a change (remember the III quarter), but the reaction of the players can be stormy. We are also very important, as oil prices behave. If you decline to a halt and stabilize oil prices near $ 75 level, Russia"s market can resume growth and reach new levels. If oil will mark down $ 70, major sales are unlikely to be avoided. log in and see the material;; 1; user rated material 5. Analyst Ratings

Lukoil trend Short Medium Long-Term neutral neutral neutral The level of support 1570 - 1600 1480 - 1560 1410 - 1500 Resistance 1670 - 1700 1760 - 1840 1870 - 1960 Recommendations No position. Notes ; Norilsk Nickel trend Short Medium Long-Term neutral neutral improvement The level of support 4360 - 4490 4310 - 4500 3700 - 3860 Resistance 4730 - 4840 5210 - 5340 5570 - 5920 Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices. Notes ; Rostelecom trend Short Medium Long-Term neutral lowering neutral The level of support 143.30 - 145.20 135.90 - 143.00 120.20 - 131.00 Resistance 150.10 - 153.10 173.20 - 184.40 195.00 - 210.00 Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices. Notes ; Gazprom trend Short Medium Long-Term neutral neutral improvement The level of support 175.40 - 178.70 164.50 - 171.50 122.00 - 145.00 Resistance 187.30 - 190.60 195.50 - 200.50 216.00 - 225.00 Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices. Notes ; Mosenergo trend Short Medium Long-Term neutral improvement improvement The level of support 3.430 - 3.500 3.000 - 3.250 2.330 - 2.560 Resistance 3.800 - 3.880 4.130 - 4.260 4.270 - 4.650 Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices. Notes Paper bought out the medium. Surgutneftegaz trend Short Medium Long-Term lowering neutral neutral The level of support 24.60 - 24.90 23.80 - 24.60 22.10 - 23.40 Resistance 26.10 - 26.40 29.00 - 29.80 30.00 - 32.10 Recommendations No position. Notes ; Savings Bank trend Short Medium Long-Term neutral improvement improvement The level of support 82.20 - 83.60 77.30 - 81.50 63.90 - 73.00 Resistance 88.10 - 89.50 95.00 - 97.50 98.90 - 109.70 Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices. Notes Paper bought out the medium. log in and see the material;; 4; user rated material on 2,8. Analyst Ratings