FOREX and Financial Crisis

Perspective: I think that there is a possibility of deepening yesterday rollback MICEX index in the direction of the support in the zone n. 1410/1420 bulls attempt to close the window on the MICEX index of 22 January the new gepom was quite risky. As a result, in the ~ 1440 (62%-s correction of the drop) shaped neprotorgovannaya zone, which creates obvious technical obstacles to the further movement of the index upward. Therefore, since the afternoon of the morning closing gap was quite technically sound. indicator of cash flow on the MICEX index in the middle of the day clearly showed that the bulls at the time actually used all the resources available (Fig. 1) - the indicator has reached the maximum values, and the last time this value was observed in October last year. Although trading volume on the MICEX index (~ 60 billion) yesterday was also the highest in the last 5 sessions, this was not sufficient to consolidate the achieved levels. To further advance the top bulls need additional resources. potential for this exists. This follows from the analysis of the structure of purchases that are in our market in recent days. Along with short-term speculative buying, we note the simultaneous increase in net volume of medium and long-term positions on the MICEX. The main incentive for investors - out of Russia"s economy out of recession and slowdown in inflation. We believe it is this fact now provides support for prices, Russia"s market and its advanced dynamic compared to other emerging markets, including with the markets of BRIC. External background on Thursday morning looks moderately negative, suggesting the possibility of deeper retracement of yesterday"s MICEX index in the direction of the support zone n. 1410/1420 In the future (until the end of the week), participants are likely to be acting on the situation of the outcome of the ECB meeting and the publication of the January report on employment in the United States. Figure 1 log in ac8fnd see the material;; 1; user rated material at 4. Analyst Ratings

borrowers through the courts extend credit terms and seek to reduce rates on previously issued loans. MPs propose at the legislative level to simplify the practice. If you believe the National Bank, problem debt to have already reached 70 billion UAH., representing 10% of the loan portfolio of the banking system. While by international standards the level of "bad" loans in the loan portfolio of domestic banks is approaching 30%. loan through the court President of the law firm of "Dynasty" Denis Mirgorodskii said that he was aware of several cases where the borrowers through the courts sought to renegotiate credit agreements: "In one case the court decided to reduce the interest rate on a loan with a 13% per annum to 8%, in another - to extend the loan period from 20 to 30 years. " This practice may well become the media. Especially given the recent legislative initiatives of People"s Deputies. People want to elect at the legislative level for borrowers to consolidate the right to set their own terms for the restructuring of loans. Recall: in late 2009, the Parliament has already been partially resolved the problem of restructuring mortgages (the Law № 1533 "On amending some laws of Ukraine in order to overcome the negative effects of the financial crisis"). But now in Parliament, the Committee on Legal Policy of the bill number 4382 dated 14.12.09 "On Amending the Civil Code of Ukraine (regarding support for borrowers in financial crisis)," recorded by deputies Alexander Feldman and Oleg Gaiman ( both - BYT). authors of the document proposes to add the Civil Code (CC) with a new article 1056-2 as follows: "In the event of1000a significant deterioration in the financial condition of the borrower - an individual (natural person - entrepreneur), which has arisen due to objective reasons, the credit agreement may be amended by agreement of the parties or court order. " Unfortunately, the bill does not specify that the deputies meant by "significant deterioration" and "objective reasons". Nevertheless, the authors believe that in the event of these conditions, banks are required to restructure the loan borrower. Thus, under the restructuring of the bill refers to change in the loan agreement, in particular, by extending his term of delay in payment of the loan, transferring the debt on the credit of the currency in the hryvnia. The bill number 4382 to the borrower the right to formulate specific proposals to restructure and return it to the bank. In this case no restrictions are not provided. That is theoretically the client may require the bank to convert its loan into hryvnia at the rate of 5.05 UAH /USD or, for example, reduce the interest rate by 10 percentage points - Up to 5% per annum. If within 30 days of receipt of the borrower"s bank statements with the proposal to restructure the loan accordingly will not be included in the loan agreement, the client receives the right to modify the contract in court.      now borrowers are forced to accept the terms of the restructuring imposed by the banks. Approach bankers simple: either agree to unfavorable restructuring or early gasi loan in full. Otherwise, the bank may initiate the enforcement of collateral. At the same time in the official comments bankers insist that borrowers offer their best terms for the restructuring. Therefore, ostensibly with the majority of customers can not reach a compromise. "We have restructured 12 thousand credits, and only 2% of the customers insisted on implementing their own proposals for restructuring," - said Alexey Rudnev, director of retail business OTP Bank. In fact, banks often offer disadvantageous for borrowers, since it leads to a substantial overpayment of the loan. Recall: massive restructuring of loans of the population started early in 2009 According to bankers, have already restructured 25-30% of the loan portfolio. Moreover, began the so-called second wave of restructuring, under which the bankers extend favorable terms of repayment of loans for troubled borrowers. "Not all borrowers are able to restore solvency to pay the loans under the new exchange rate. So we will extend the restructuring of clients may be more stringent conditions", - said Vitaly Shastun, board member of the "Universal Bank". According to NBU, on January 1, 2010 the portfolio of bank loans to residents in foreign currency totaled $ 21.5 billion, which means that, despite the crisis of 2009 borrowers to repay $ 4.3 billion of foreign exchange credits, or 17% of the loan portfolio.

On the eve of Russia"s major indexes finished the session at the lows of the day. MICEX adjusted within days more than 1,5%. Pressure at the finish trades have negative dynamics of the American market and publication of data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products in the United States, selling prices of "black gold" that carried away shares of domestic oil and gas sector down. After trading on Russia"s market situation in external sites has not changed. U.S. indices continued consolidation; SP 500 closed below 1,100 points, near which the motion and will happen before the release of key statistics of the week. U.S. index futures traded in a slight negative. The situation in the Asian sites did not provide clear signals before the opening session, but in Russia the market is quite likely the "Chinese script": for sites in Chin1000a after the morning decline and departure below 3000 points for the SSEC mood changed to positive. The main pressure at the start of the day will continue to declining oil quotas, which have lost since the end of trading on the domestic market of about 1%, which would lead a majority stake in Russia"s "oil industry" to the local level supports. From them, I recommend forming position. On the eve of the biggest-sale were Rosneft, as a support which in today"s session may raise the level of 38,2%-term correction of Fibonacci (231.52 USD).. Progress in today"s trading will be determined by the dynamics of the currency market, where before the opening of a decrease in pair EUR /USD. In anticipation of the decisions and comments of the ECB couples volatility is high. Technically, the support of the pair will perform 1,383 level. In case of change of sentiment in favor of the euro in Russia could dominate the market purchase. As support for the MICEX index may speak at the opening of the lower boundary of the medium-term rising channel, which enhances the 21-day moving average. After the market there will be an expectation of consolidation in the signals from external sites. With a penetration of this level down to the index may raise the level of 1400 points. Positive signals could lead to a rebound, which will be the closing of short positions opened yesterday. Resistance during the day can make the level of 1450 points. log in and see the material;; 3; user rated material on 4,3. Analyst Ratings

Russian stock market slowed down its growth. The reason is simple: as oil and stock markets rose strongly over the past two days, participants are afraid of a correction, especially before the publication of data on stocks of petroleum products in the U.S.. Correcting the euro also has some negative impact, although less than it used to before. However, further positive statements of companies and macroeconomic data from the U.S. and China should lead to continued growth in prices of raw materials and global stock markets. We continue to expect to achieve the level of 1750 points on the RTS index. However, the weak link on the Russian stock market remains Rosneft. According to our calculations, in the case of full cancellation of benefits on export duties and the RTS Index at the 1750 fair price of shares of Rosneft will be 200 rubles. However, we do not believe that the benefits will be eliminated completely: most likely, the debate will continue until the end of March and, as a result, some benefits will be maintained. However, at the end of the quarter had "arrive" correction of the level of 1750 points and Rosneft will not be able to grow up already for this reason. Another weak link in the Russian stock market may soon become a sector of subsidiaries Svyazinvesta. The aggregate P /E for the seven most liquid companies is 12, which is pretty much by today"s standards. Log in and enjoy the material;; 4; user rated material 3,2. Analyst Ratings

The Russian market is growing at about 0,5% of the MICEX index. Trading volumes rather mediocre. Are allocated shares of "Severstal", the paper show good growth "Akron", and in London and we have. Recently released statistics ADP as the labor market in the U.S. - almost better than expected, but the response, as usual lately on good statistics, the moderately negative. The following data, which is waiting for the market, out at 18.00 Moscow time - ISM index in non-production sphere. Up to this point is unlikely we will see strong movements in the Russian sites. Technically looks like that the last two days bounced States, it is possible that the rebound is over and we will continue to decline again, as it did the last two weeks earlier. The Russian market for this last reduction is enough to show good stability, great sales, we almost never seen. But if you develop a second wave of movement in foreign markets, this immunityf22may be lost, and we can also well prosest. Finally, we can decide on Friday: come out basic information - Non farm payrolls. If they prove to be good, then the lateral movement will continue, if worse than expected, it can very significantly increased selling pressure. Log in and enjoy the material;; 7; users rated material 5. Analyst Ratings

At 16.00 Moscow time value RGBI price index was 131.28. Compared to the previous day"s close, it rose by 0.43 paragraph (0.329%). Trading volume on the market of government securities amounted to 67.29 billion rubles. Yields on bonds RU000A0JQMK5 with maturity in June 2010 was 5.37% (-0.01 percentage points) on the bonds SU25066RMFS0 with maturity in July 2011 - 6.54% (0.07 percentage points) on the bonds with SU26200RMFS4 maturing in July 2013 - 7.21% (-0.08 percentage points) on the bonds SU26202RMFS0 with maturity in December 2014 - 7.61% (-0.07 percentage points) on the bonds SU46017RMFS8 with maturity in August 2016 - 7.74% (-0.21 percentage points). C corporate bond market concluded 1070 transactions in the amount of 8440.3 million rubles. Yields on bonds CFR 10obl with maturity in March 2014 was 8.82% (-0.06 percentage points) on the bonds System-03 with a due date in November 2016 - 10.33% (-0.17 percentage points) , on bonds Belon 02 with a due date in February 2012 - 12.63% (0.04 percentage points) on the bonds Gazprneft3 with maturity in July 2016 - 8.35% (-0.05 percentage points) on the bonds Sibmetin01 with maturity in October 2019 - 12.28% (-0.12 percentage points). C sub-federal and municipal bonds signed 206 deals amounting to 3617.01 million rubles. Yields on bonds MGor61-on with maturity in June 2013 was 8.08% (-0.03 percentage points), the bonds MGor62-on with maturity in June 2014 - 8.19% (-0.01 percentage points) , on bonds MGor56-on with maturity in September 2016 - 8.61% (-0.01 percentage points), on bonds MGor63-on with maturity in December 2013 - 8.14% (-0.19 percentage points), , on bonds IrkObl31-7 with a due date in December 2011 - 10.78% (-0.27 percentage points). Trading volume on the MICEX derivatives market at 16:00 Moscow time was 2.50062 billion rubles. Futures on USD: trading volume - 280.13 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 29.97 rub. (-0.221 Rub.), The volume of open positions - Rear 1.42 million. Futures EURO: trading volume - 0,08 mln., Quoting the nearest futures - 42.0809 rub. (0 rub.), The volume of open positions - 14,5 thousand counter. MICEX Index futures: trading volume - 2.0005 billion rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 145,190 rubles. (1060 rub.), The volume of open positions - 3520 counter. Futures on Gazprom: the volume of1000trades - 66.86 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 19,524 rubles. (195 rub.), The volume of open positions - 1641 counter. Futures Savings: trading volume - 90.57 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 8942 rub. (106 rub.), The volume of open positions - 2329 counter. Norilsk Nickel futures: trading volume - 57.93 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 48,231 rubles. (443 rub.), The volume of open positions - 963 Rear. Lukoil futures: trading volume - 4,55 mln., Quoting the nearest futures - 17195 rub. (79 rubles.), The volume of open positions - 1932 counter. Futures on MosPrime 3M: the volume of open positions - 20 counter. In the "Bond Market" You can find information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned deployment, the outcome of trading on the MICEX and read the comments on the bond market. Log in and enjoy the material;; 2; user rated material 5. Analyst Ratings

targets for futures on the RTS index in its growth: 1) The green horizontal line - 156 300 points in futures on the RTS index. a. 1 - 3 days. targets for futures on the RTS at its fall: 2) The green horizontal line - 143 500 points in futures on the RTS index. a. Achieved. We look forward to consolidation. 3) The blue horizontal line - 127 850 points for the futures on the RTS index. time to achieve this goal: a. 5 - 10 working days. 4) red horizontal line - 118 500 points in futures on the RTS index. time to achieve this goal: a. 25 trading days. Recommendations for today: 1) buy at 143 500 points. Stop-loss set at mark 143 000 points. 2) Selling at 156 300 points. Stop-loss set at mark 150 800 points. Evening session on FORTS February 2, 2010: Following the evening session of the futures on the RTS index rose by 1000 points. Volume - level averages. Futures on the RTS goes according to plan - Breaks Through 150 000. Sberbank shares have already prepared to jump up. Today a high probability of strong growth. Log in and enjoy the material;;

Agricultural Chamber of Ukraine appealed to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine to the letter, which invites the Government to take part in work on the accession of the two domestic ports (Reni and Izmail) to the Single European system of transporting grain. The Chamber invites the Government to establish a working group, the result of which will be operating time of a package of documents necessary for the treatment of the Cabinet of Ministers of the European Commission on this issue. According to ag1000ricultural experts, the accession to the European system will improve the technical condition of Ukrainian ports and increase their profits due to additional handling of grain. Recall that the European Union in 2010, plans to pursue a common policy of handling grain cargoes in European ports to reduce transportation costs. This will be achieved through the optimal solution of issues related to tariffs for delivery of grain, storage, loading and unloading of grain in the ports. We are talking about creating the most favorable economic conditions of transportation for all farmers of the EU. In October 2009, the Agricultural Chamber of the Visegrad countries (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland) supported the idea of joining the above two Ukrainian ports in the European system. The point of accession by Reni and Izmail port of the European Commission. But this must be preceded by a formal appeal from the Ukraine to receive it. According to the president of the Agrarian Chamber of Ukraine (ACU) Dmitri Berezovsky, Ukraine must do everything to join. This European integration will benefit both sides. For example, the EU companies, this means a reduction in transport costs for transport of grain. For Ukraine, the same economic benefit lie in several planes. First, this year an extra million tons of grain to be transported through the already mentioned ports. Secondly, the European system of transportation of grain is formed within the European Union, and infrastructure upgrade participants financed by the "pocket" of the EU. So do not miss this investment opportunity. idea of becoming a party supports and Chief Reni Commercial Port Sergei Building. But that Europe has taken under his wing Ukrainian ports, you need to increase the depth of the channel cross the Danube - Black Sea, he adds. For now, many large-foreign ships pass through the channel to the port of Reni empty.

4% rise in oil prices - an unambiguous indicator of the direction of the Russian stock market today The results of the U.S. trading session is very encouraging. Not so much because of the fact that stocks newly added more than 1%, as in force overcoming the important technical levels. In particular, S P500 index rose above its 100-day average, which can lead to increased customer. Such success has pleased and oil. Quotes Brent soared to 4%, also recovering above 100MA. The positive dynamics of foreign markets lets talk about the end of the correction on the Russian stock market has exhausted after the closing of "New Year"s Gap. We expect the growth of the MICEX index above 1,450 points in today"s trading. again increased attention of investors can be expected to shares of Gazprom on the background of record levels of gas production in January, the Securities Aeroflot and regional telecom in the light of the upcoming reorganization. And, of course, look forward to recovery in the price of shares of oil companies behind the rapid rise of prices for "black gold". The main event this week - the publication of data on payrolls - will be held on Friday. Today will be published on the assessment of change in the number of jobs from ADP. Log in and enjoy the material;; 2; user rated material on 4,5. Analyst Ratings

results of trading on the MICEX Group"s markets, February 2, 2010 Exchange Market As a result of trading the dollar with the calculations of the "Today" has decreased by 19.14 kopecks. (0.6302%) to 30.1797 rubles. dollar. Bidding open transaction at the rate of 30.2500 rubles. dollar. During the trading day parties to conclude the transaction in the interval 30.1250-30.2596 rub. dollar. Last transaction is concluded at the rate of 30.1586 rubles. dollar. Trading on the dollar with the calculations of "Tomorrow" open transaction at the rate of 30.2500 rubles. dollar. As a result of trading MICEX at 11:30 on the dollar with the calculations of "tomorrow" Bank of Russia set the official ruble-dollar rate of 30,183. During the trading day parties to conclude the transaction in the interval 30.1275-30.2600 rub. dollar. Last transaction is concluded at the rate of 30.1425 rubles. dollar. As a result of trading the dollar with the calculations of "tomorrow" has decreased by 18.99 kopecks. (0.6254%) to 30.17610009 rubles. dollar. The volume of transactions with dollar instruments increased by 3.1% to 8504.3 million dollars, of which 5085.2 million dollars (59.8% of sales) accounted for swap operations. deals with the single European currency for "today" were in the range of 41.9950-42.3890 rub. per euro. The last transaction was at the rate of 42.0495 rubles. per euro. As a result of trade weighted euro exchange rate with the calculations of "today" has decreased by 11.98 kopecks. (0.284%) to 42.0433 rubles. per euro. Crednevzveshenny euro with the calculations of "tomorrow" was 42.0561 rubles. per euro (-15.56 cop. or -0,369%). The last transaction was at the rate of 42.0150 rubles. per euro. The total volume of transactions with the euro fell to 2.1609 tool% to 1311.9 million dollars (13.2% of the turnover of currency market). On the MICEX exchange market concluded 6884 transactions on all instruments, totaling 9964.4 million, which is 2.1% more than the previous trading day. government securities market Trading volume on the public debt market amounted to 92.864 billion rubles., including the volume of secondary trading - 7539.8 mln., transaction volume interdealer REPO - 41266.3 mln., the volume of direct REPO transactions - 24626.7 mln. The value of price index RGBI at closing - § 130.85 (0.12%), the index of total income RGBITR - 239.42 subsection (0.15%), the index returns RGBY - 7.69% (0.18 percentage points). On the secondary market trading has become the leader bonding SU46014, which passed deals 459.7 million rubles. yields the most liquid securities comprised: SU46014 - 7.64% (-0.11 percentage points), SU26200 - 7.29% (-0.04 percentage points), SU26202 - 7.68% (-0.06 percentage points), SU25069 - 7.07% (-0.05 percentage points), SU25061 - 5.76% (0.02 percentage points), SU25064 - 6.74% (-0.18 percentage points), SU25059 - 6.13% (-0.11 percentage points), SU25066 - 6.47% (-0.2 percentage points), SU25065 - 7.18% (-0.07 percentage points), SU25063 - 6.7% (-0.06 percentage points), SU25068 - 7.63% (-0.08 percentage points ), SU25067 - 7.03% (-0.09 percentage points), SU25062 - 6.63% (yield has not changed), SU46017 - 7.95% (-0.05 percentage points). Stock Market As a result of the trading day value of the MICEX index was 1436.63 points, which is 1.39% higher than the closing of the previous trading day. MICEX Oil and Gas Index - 2596,07 (1,577%), MICEX Power Index - 2665,27 (0,806%), MICEX Telecommunication Index - 2059,94 (3,241%), MICEX Metals and Mining Index - 4123, 23 (1,58%), MICEX Manufacturing Index - 1770,53 (1,506%), MICEX Financials Index - 5615,17 (1,162%), MICEX Consumer Goods and Services Index - 3701,49 (1,902%), MICEX Chemicals Index - 4658.17 (0.825%). MICEX Large Cap Index - 2335,77 (1,387%), MICEX Mid Cap Index - 2290,38 (1,35%), MICEX Start Cap Index - 4016,31 (2,505%). leader of growth among the blue chips were ordinary shares Korostelev-ao, whose price rose by 5.26%. Grown quotations Rosneft ordinary shares (3.64%), UralCB-AB (3.19%), GMKNorNik (2.25%), Gazpromneft (2.16%), Surgnfgz (1.53%), LUKOIL (1.52%), VTB Bank AB (1.34%), GAZPROMao (1.24%), Sberbank (0.41%). Trading volume on the market shares of the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 100.54 billion rubles. (3307.3 million U.S. dollars), of which 53.98 billion rubles. (1775.79 million) were in secondary trading, 46.56 billion rubles. (1531.51 million) - for repo transactions. market for corporate and1000regional bond As a result of the day trading volume of corporate and regional bonds on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 97.7 billion rubles. (3213.8 million U.S. dollars), of which 23.9 billion rubles. (785.4 million dollars) were in secondary trading, 73.8 billion rubles. (2428.5 million) - for repo transactions. decreased yield MTS 03 for 0.36 percentage points, MGor54-on - by 0.26 percentage points, Gazprneft4 - by 0.21 percentage points, MGor56-on - by 0.19 percentage points, Tyumenenrg2 - on 0.19 percentage points, Gazprneft3 - by 0.16 percentage points, MGor44-on - by 0.14 percentage points, MGor61-on - by 0.01 percentage points Do not change the yield of bonds RusStand-8. Grew up bond yields MGor63-on at 0.11 PM Index CBI CP on the day was 93.27 points, increased by 0.17% on the value of the previous trading day, the index MBI CP - 96.41 points, an increase of 0.1% on the value of the previous trading day. Derivatives Market trading volume totaled 3.53 billion rubles. or 54,340 contracts. Total open interest - 1441218 contracts (1.46316 billion U.S. dollars). Futures on USD: trading volume - 0.5 billion rubles., The volume of open positions - 1,414,891 contracts (1.41489 billion U.S. dollars). Futures EUR: trading volume - 0,08 mln., The amount of open positions - 14503 Contract (20.176 million dollars). MICEX Index futures: trading volume - 2.72787 billion rubles., The amount of open positions - 3585 contracts (516.92 million USD).. Futures on Gazprom: the volume of trades - 88.89 million rubles., The volume of open positions - 1,593 contracts (30.82 million USD).. Futures Savings: trading volume - 101.35 million rubles., The amount of open positions - 3735 contracts (32.99 million USD).. Lukoil futures: trading volume - 16.54 million rubles., The volume of open positions - 2022 contracts (34.72 million USD).. Norilsk Nickel futures: trading volume - 90.21 million rubles., The volume of open positions - 869 contracts (41.62 million USD).. futures market for grain volume of transactions was 153.36 million rubles. (37.7 tons). Total open interest - 14.48 million rubles. (4,4 tons). government operations in the grain market. Trading volume amounted to 31.05 thousand tonnes of grain to the amount of 118.52 million rubles. Trades - 22 bidders - 161. In "Bond Market" You can find information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned placement, the outcome of trading on the MICEX and read the comments on the bond market. Log in and enjoy the material;; Your score will be the first! Analyst Ratings