Wednesday, March 10, 2010

‘Reviews and ideas’ News

Latin America: Brazil helped unemployment, Chile prevent industrial production

Saturday, February 27, 2010 12:17

  Thursday, January 28, the main share indexes of Latin America have finished day with multidirectional dynamics. indicator of equity market of Brazil Bovespa rose by 0,8% to a mark of 65 587.81 points. Brazilian Real with weakened to 0.38% to 1,866 reais per dollar. strong support markets has reduced unemployment in the country in December to a record low 6.8%, and the words of representatives of Bank of America that the key interest rate Brazil will remain at a minimum value until June of this year. Shares steelmaker CSN have added 2.9%, while its rival Usiminas increased by 2.4% on expectations of strengthening demand for cars and homes due to low interest rates and the stabilization of the labor market. Quotes bank Itau Unibanco Holding jumped 3%, while the owner of the largest in Latin America Stock Exchange BM FBovespa became heavier at 3.3%. Papers cargo container terminal operator Santos Brasil Participacoes, however, have fallen by 6,1% against the publication of 4 quarter loss of $ 5.3 million reais ($ 2.83 million), against analysts expected profit of 16.3 million reais .

United States: the Fed does not expect big surprises, but the bulls in any case excluded themselves

Tuesday, February 23, 2010 4:14

  Tuesday, 26 January, the U.S. market finished the trading session in a small minus in spite of the fact that most of the auctions the index rose. In the course of the session contributed to the dominance of bulls released at 18:00 IST statistics on consumer confidence in January - the index rose 3 points to a mark of 55.9 points and was on average 4.5% better than expectations. Among-reporting companies were more of those who managed to beat forecasts - Apple, Travelers, Tellabs, Corning. Nevertheless, in the last hour of trading the oxen chose to take profits in anticipation of the coming meeting of the Fed. While a rate hike at this meeting, no one expects today"s session could go in unpredictable ways, because the investment environment are waiting for hints from the Fed with regard to phasing out the monetary incentive. Following the session, the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.57 points, or 0.03% to a level of 10,194.29 points, the index is a broad market Standard Poor "s 500 has decreased by 4.61 points, or 0.42% to a mark 1,092.17 points and the index of high-technology Nasdaq Composite went in at minus 7.07 points, or 0.32% to 2,203.73 points mark. On the commodity market, the March crude oil futures for light on the results of the auctions on NYMEX fell 0,7% to a level of $ 74.71 per barrel. Gold for February delivery, which added 0.2% to a level of $ 1,098.30 per troy ounce. &l1000t;br>The financial sector led the correctional movement, stepping on 1,7% in the broad market index against the backdrop of continuing concerns about threats to Obama push hard for the regulation.

Technical Analysis of American Depository Receipts Vale

Monday, February 22, 2010 11:16

  Our assumptions regarding the movement of American depositary receipts of Brazilian mining company Vale, presented in the preceding analysis, justified. Prices for some time stayed close to the level of 26,50, and then slowly continued their upward movement and reached the mark in 30,65, where the level of 61,8% of Fibonacci (Fig. 1). However, to break the resistance specified ADRs failed, and they rushed back to the level of 50% Fibonacci. Fig. 1 Weekly dynamics ADRs Vale     Source: Reuters   Currently the weekly chart convergence of moving averages with a period of 8 and 21 indicates a weakening of the uptrend (Fig. 1). Lines MACD indicator on the weekly chart (Figure 2) intersected, which is usually a strong enough signal to sell. However, other indicators are presented in Fig. 2, have not confirmed such an action. Thus, the line changes direction indicator is located above the DM-DM, and the line ADX, despite the reversal, had no time to drop significantly, slowing their movement. The Stochastic RSI oscillator is also on its way down met with resistance and had swept away the wave number of ardor. Nevertheless, it is worth noting divergence observed in the graphs of prices and the RSI indicator and marked in Fig. 3 purple lines. Thus, the price on the weekly schedule from November last year, continues to conquer new peaks, while the corresponding local maxima of a stochastic oscillator under consideration, on the contrary, showing a decrease. This movement is usually a sign of price stabilization, which may be follo1000wed by a strong correction.   Fig. 2 Indicators DM and-DM, ADX, MACD, RSI (weekly Dynamics)     Source: Reuters   Fig. 3 Weekly dynamics ADRs Vale and Stochastics RSI     Source: Reuters   Thus, the analysis of weekly charts of price movements of American depositary receipts of Brazilian mining company Vale can be concluded a possible correction, indicated by the convergence of exponential moving averages, the divergence of timetables, prices and an indicator RSI, and intersections of lines MACD. The closest level of support will make a mark in 26,58 (50% Fibonacci). Close to the specified value at the moment are moving average with period 21 and the centerline of Bollinger Bands (Fig. 4), which can also act as a support when moving downwards. In the case of crossing the midline of Bollinger Bands is possible to reduce to the lower limit. If the RSI indicator will turn up, and following its peak corresponding to a new high in the chart price will lie above the previous one, then we can talk about the end of the correction and extension of the current uptrend.

Asia: China frightens the whole region

Monday, February 22, 2010 8:15

  Tuesday, 26 January, the stock markets of the Asia-Pacific region amid expectations tightening of monetary policy in China and to slow the growth of Chinese economy, which could lead to all the major economies of the world, finished the day with a predominantly negative dynamics. general indicator of the regional MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.8% to a value of 119.42 points. Japanese Nikkei 225 has weakened to 1.78%, while the broad market indicator Topix decreased by 1,95%. Papers of the operator of the largest in the world merchant fleet Mitsui OSK Lines collapsed at 4% on concern the reduction of cargo transportation in the event of a slowdown in economic growth in China. Shares wireless phone network operator KDDI have fallen by 8,6%. The company reduced its forecast for annual profit of 255 billion yen, is expected in October, up to 225 billion yen ($ 2.5 billion), and also agreed to buy 38% stake in the television cable company Jupiter Telecommunications for $ 4 billion Quotes Jupiter Telecommunications at the same time fell 6 , 6%. Hong Kong Hang Seng finished the day by a decrease of 2,38%. Shares of the largest capitalization on the World Bank International Commercial Bank of China slipped to 3.4%, while its rival Bank of China fell 3.4%. Analysts at Goldman Sachs lowered the recommendation of the Chinese banks, which have already taken steps to reduce the volume growth of new lending. Quotes Foxconn International Holdings, engaged in the production of mobile phones on contract, abated from its asset 8,7%. Representatives of the firm reported a forecast "significant" reduction of profits in 2009, even though "encouraging improvement" in the second half of the year. Stock Indicator South Korea"s Kospi declined by 1.97%. Papers Korea Line shipping company, slid 4.4% on concern that slowing turnover in the case of "cooling" of the Chinese economy. Stock Exchange of India and Australia were closed due to national holiday. Values of the basic indexes on closing are resulted in the table: Index Country Closing (items) Delta day (items) Change day (%) Change YTD SP /ASX 200 Australia 4717,90 -32,70 -0,69% -3,14% &1000lt;tr> All Ordinaries Australia 4743, 10 -28,80 -0,60% -2,86% Ho Chi Minh Vietnam 497,90 16 , 99 3,53% 0,63% Hang Seng Hong Kong 20109,33 -489,22 -2,38% -8,06% Hang Seng H-shares Hong Kong 11410,12 -448,34 -3,78% -10,82% BSE 30 (Sensex) India 16780,46 -79,22 -0,47% -3,92% Jakarta Composite Indonesia 2578,42 -19,44 -0,75% 1,74% Shanghai A-shares China 3166,19 -78,80 -2,43% -7,89% CSI 300 China 3242,80 -85,22 -2,56% -9,31% KLSE Composite Malaysia 1283 , 02 -13,77 -1,06% 0,80 % NZSE 50 New Zealand 3209,06 20,41 0,64% -0,65% Karachi 100 &1000;lt;td> Pakistan 9662,32 -26,88 -0,28% 2,93% Straits Times Singapore 2740,33 -71,38 -2,54 % -5,43% Bangkok SET Thailand 492,39 -7,170 -1,44% -5,44 % TAIEX Taiwan 7598,81 -274,18 -3,48% -7,20% PSEi Philippines 2955,70 -12,26 -0,41% -3,18% Colombo All-Shares Sri Lanka 3591,38 36,93 1 , 04% 6,08% KOSPI South Korea 1637,34 -32,86 -1,97% -- 2,70% Nikkei 225 Japan 10325,28 -187,41 -1,78% -2,10% Topix Japan 916,40 -18,19 -1,95% 0,97%

USA: January”s season “discounts” was short-lived

Sunday, February 21, 2010 0:14

  Monday, 25 January, the U.S. stock market finished the trading session in a slight increase, despite the fact that data on housing sales in the secondary market have been more than disappointing. Recall that the number of homes sold in December on the secondary market decreased compared to November more than a million units and reached 5.45 million, ie by 7,6% worse than average prognosis. On1000e of the key news of the day was the information on the likely approval of Mr. Bernanke, a new term at the helm of the Fed. Following the session, the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 23.88 points, or 0.23% to a level of 10,196.86 points, the index is a broad market Standard Poor "s 500 rose 5.02 points, or 0.46% to a mark 1,096.78 points and the index of high-technology Nasdaq Composite has left in plus on 5,51 points, or 0.25% to 2,210.80 points mark. On the commodity markets dominated by a positive, as fears of China had to settle after several successive sales. The March crude oil futures on the NYMEX rose 1% to a level of $ 75,26 per barrel, while the February futures on the COMEX gold prices increased by 0,6% to a mark of 1,095.70 per troy ounce.

Asia: Obamovskie plans did not give the rest

Friday, February 19, 2010 22:17

  Monday, January 25, the major stock markets of the Asian region have shown negative dynamics of the sixth session in a row. Even last week, U.S. President Barack Obama announced his plans regarding the regulation of financial institutions, in particular, limits on the size of the banks and they have taken risks, have sown fear of future profits of banking institutions. In addition, the tightening of monetary policy by the Chinese Government is not the first day of worrying market participants, and casts doubt on the prospects for the global economy as a whole. As a result of trades Japanese Nikkei 225 index sank 0.74%, Chinese CSI 300 has become easier to 1,13%, while Australia SP /ASX 200 fell by 0.69%. Regional indicator MSCI Asia Pacific has lowered from its asset 0,7%, to close at a mark of 121.57 points. Exception to the general downward trend began markets of Vietnam and Sri Lanka. The third largest bank, China Bank of China retreated 2.1% against the planned sale of convertible bonds to raise $ 5.86 billion as a result, quotes the Chinese Bank of Communications fell 2.5%. Shares in Australia"s largest company specializing in property insurance and accidents, QBE Insurance Group fell 0.7% after Deutsche Bank analysts lowered their rating to "buy" to "hold".

Latin America: Brazil mining sector supported

Wednesday, February 10, 2010 22:15

  Tuesday, January 19, the main stock indexes in Latin America, most of them have finished day with positive dynamics. indicator of equity market of Brazil Bovespa rose to 0,73% to a mark of 69 908.59 points. Brazilian real weakened to 0.3% and finished the day at 1.7701 reais per dollar. published statistics showed that consumer prices in the country for the month ending Jan. 15 rose by 0.85% against the growth of 0,48% a month earlier. Analysts with the predicted growth rate at 0.75%. The increase in consumer prices increases inflationary expectations and signals the possibility of an early lifting of key interest rates in the country. Papers of the world"s biggest earner Vale iron ore prices increased by 1.2% after analysts raised their recommendations for Barclays shares to assess "best market" and said enough to state an attractive market for iron ore over the next three to four years, as well as increase in demand from China. Quotations world"s largest manufacturer of wood Fibria Celulose jumped 4,5% on the background of the weekly growth indices of the global timber value BHKP and NBSK. Shares airline Tam became heavier at 3.4%. The company said that could attract 1.27 billion reais through the sale of shares of its units Multiplus. Papers state oil company Petrobras, however, lost 0.5% against the backdrop of weakening the value of "black gold" to below $ 78 a barrel. Mexican Bolsa by the end of the trading session has lowered 0,03% to a value of 32 473.05 points. The Mexican peso finished the day with the strengthening of 0,17% to 12.635 pesos to the dollar.   Papers of the largest national retailer Walmex "stouter" at 0,11%, while mining Grupo Mexico added 0,75%. Values of the basic indexes on closing are resulted in the table: Index Country Closing Change (items) Change (%) Change YTD MerVal Argentina 2388,31 16,45 0,69% 2,91% Bovespa Brazil 69908,59 507,66 0,73% 1,92% IBC Venezuela 59699,32 -296,01 -0,49% 8,40% IGBC Colombia 11780,66 63,49 0,54% 1,54% Bolsa Mexico 32473,05 -9,68 -0,03% 1,10% IGBVL Peru 15194,76 -30 , 05 -0,20% 7,25% IGPA Chile 17572,22 42,46 0,24% 5,66% IPSA Chile 3814,97 12,05 0,32% 6 , 52%

U.S.: Oracle of those markets the way …

Thursday, January 21, 2010 4:12

  Friday, December 18, trading on U.S. stock exchanges were even in the complete absence of any significant macroeconomic data from the U.S. and globally. therefore a guide to the markets was the successful quarterly results and optimistic projections for 2 large representatives of the high-tech sector - a leading developer of software products for large businesses, Oracle and Research In Motion, generating record sales pobivshie smartphones BlackBerry. Both companies have not only successfully made themselves by winning on the basis of trades, respectively 6.3% and 10.4%, but also contributed positive dynamics of equity markets, especially the base for high-tech enterprises NASDAQ. important factor for developments on the stock exchange was complete and quarterly trade just four types of futures and options on indexes and stocks, as well as the quarterly change in the listing SP 500, all of which usually leads to greater sales volume and high volatility with unpredictable finale . The influence of these factors on the course of trading is clearly apparent, and on Friday, which, however, did not prevent all the major stock indexes end the day with a positive result, but with varying degrees of success on the week. Index Dow Jones industrial average rose by 20.63 points or 0.20% to 10328.89 points, reduction per week was 1.4%. Index of Standard Poor "s 500 rose by 6.39 points or 0.58%, to close at 1102.47 points, a loss for the week amounted to 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 31.64 points or 1.45% to a value of 2211.69 points, adding during the week of 1%. at an elite American Economic Club of Top-30 in the Green Zone finished the majority of companies (18), headed by leading representatives of high-tech sector - the main driver of growth of stock markets on Friday - Intel Corporation (2.9%), Microsoft (2.6%) , Hewlett-Packard (1.9%) and Cisco System (0.7%). With a decent profit over the day and for the largest representatives of the financial sector, JPMorgan Chase (1.7%) and Bank of America (1.1%). Among the losers the worst result was marked by the aviation industry"s flagship Boeing (-1.9%) due to the breakdown of negotiations with the planned order of 200 new aircraft the airline Ryanair Holdings, after both sides failed to agree on mutually acceptable terms of the contract.

Week on the world stage: New Year”s oil fluctuations

Wednesday, January 20, 2010 23:10

  political past week can be considered "oil": the Copenhagen summit, as expected, ended with almost anything, but around the "oil" countries seething passion. This, first of all, talking about Iran last week to remind everyone how much of its action depends on the conjuncture of the oil market. On Wednesday, Iran announced successful trials of a new medium-range missiles. Some observers have suggested that this was a kind of "Tehran"s response" to the prospect of an energy blockade of the country since before the U.S. House of Representatives approved a bill imposing sanctions against companies investing in Iran"s energy sector for more than 20 million dollars. On Friday, the oil market was waiting for more "shock". Oil prices during the day jumped 2.8% after the news of the invasion of Iranian tanks on the territory of Iraq and the capture of one of the frontier of oil wells. Great Leap prices prevented the likely reaction of many world politicians, deny outright the possibility of any serious conflict between Iran and Iraq. The situation is really resolved fairly quickly, and the next day the Iranian military have left the disputed border territory, and the states themselves have decided to resolve all conflicts through a specially established bilateral intergovernmental commission. In favor of a peaceful outcome to the conflict is the fact that it is now the head of Iraq is a Shiite government, supported by Tehran.  However, quite a rapid resolution of the controversial situation has failed to fully address the concerns of experts. The conflict between two of the three largest oil-exporting countries in the Persian Gulf that occurred to the same pre-summit of OPEC, which was attended by both sides, left many questions. The problem of the Iranian-Iraqi border areas has not been removed, as is possible, and further aggravation of the situation around the Iranian nuclear dossier. Either way, recent events have shown the extent of the oil market depends on political factors, and particularly on the actions of Tehran. Persian Gulf was the center and other political news of the week: a union of countries of the Cooperation Council of Arab Gulf states, closed a regional organization established in 1981, announced the creation in 2010, monetary union, an agreement was signed on 30 th Meeting of the Union held in Qatar. The single currency agreed to move Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait. United Arab Emirates and the Sultanate of Oman until the entry into the Union abstained. The name of the new currency and the exact timing of transition to it is not yet known, the experts also emphasize that the participating countries, as a minimum, you must advance to the revaluation of their currencies against the dollar. And, finally, "Oil News" finished going through today in Angola last in this year meeting of OPEC countries. As expected, the organization said the preservation of production quotas at the same level, 24.845 million barrels a day. Oil prices have responded to OPEC"s decision slight decrease in the region of 0,5%, as reported by Bloomberg News. According to experts, OPEC"s decision to finally consolidate the level of $ 70 as the lower grades "comfortable" price of oil. Themselves members of the Organization price of 70-80 dollars per barrel is called the "ideal".

Latin America: good data - a good result

Wednesday, January 20, 2010 18:11

  Thursday, December 24, the main share indexes of Latin America against the backdrop of exit optimistic macroeconomic data on the U.S., finished day with positive dynamics. example, orders for durable goods in the United States in November, after falling a month earlier, increased by 0,2% and the number of applications for unemployment benefits last week fell to its lowest since September 2008 level. Stock exchanges in Brazil and Argentina on Thursday were closed due to holidays. Mexican Bolsa by the end of the trading session added 0,3% to a maximum of more than 2 years the level of 32 548.53 points. U.S. is the largest trading partner countries. The Mexican peso rose 0.32% and finished the day at 12.87 pesos to the dollar. Papers silver producer Industrias Penoles went up by 1,5% against the background of strengthening the value of the metal. Grupo Mexico mining shares added 1.3% after the price of copper at the auctions in New York rose to a mark of 15-month high. Quotes Stock Exchange Bolsa Mexicana weakened by 0,5%. UBS analysts said that the outlook for the firm"s profits is the "conservative side". The company said that in 2010, expects to earn net profit of 600 million pesos ($ 46.6 million). indicator Chile IPSA stock market closed in positive territory at 0.18%. Papers of the country"s largest exporter of fertilizers Soquimich finished the day with a gain of 0.16%, while the manufacturer of wood Copec fell 0.34%. Quotes retailers were in a fairly optimistic mood. Thus, Cencosud shares added 0.41%, while its rival paper Falabella went up by 0,15%. Values of the basic indexes on closing are resulted in the table: Index Country Closing Change (items) Change (%) Change YTD MerVal Argentina 2249,35 8,26 0,37% 108,34 % Bovespa Brazil 67588,86 170,93 0,25% 80,00% IBC Venezuela 54910,55 0 0,00% 57,21% IGBC Colombia 11614,81 103,09 0,90% 53,62% Bolsa Mexico 32548,53 98,30 0,30% &f9aamp;lt;td align=right> 45,43% IGBVL Peru 14081,95 63,77 0,45% 99,78% IGPA Chile 16420,43 51,61 0,32% 45,00% IPSA Chile 3529,82 6 36 0,18% 48,54%