Friday, September 3, 2010

‘Reviews and ideas’ News

Technical analysis for gold index fund SPDR Gold Trust

Friday, March 19, 2010 12:25

  Our assumptions about price movements of the index fund for gold Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), is under the control of the company SPDR, presented in the preceding analysis, justified. Prices fell as tools (Fig. 1), and only then followed by growth, which at the weekly chart is the directional indicators of change and slow stochastics (Fig. 2). However, the MACD line did not have time to cross its signal and began to decrease, indicating a further decline in the index fund (Fig. 2). At the moment exponential moving average with a period of 8 is above the slower moving average with a period of 21 (Fig. 1), while both indicators are aimed at rapprochement. Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart also rushed toward each other. Thus, both indicators point to a possible weakening of the uptrend. In the case of moving average with a period of 8 faster moving average with a period of 21 top down, will be served a sell signal. Fig. 1 Weekly dynamics of the SPDR Gold Trust Source: Reuters Relative Strength Index RSI on the weekly schedule tried to decline, but in late January, he was able to turn around and at the moment the indicator is looking up. Line of the MACD indicator at the beginning of January this year has crossed its signal from the top down, pointing to the sale (Figure 2), and continues to fall. Slow Stochastics on the weekly chart crossed and headed into the zone "oversold", as indicators of directional changes in DM and-DM is currently converging, with the line ADX, growing up to January this year, has already changed direction and now looks down. Fig. 2 Indicators RSI, MACD, slow stochastics, DM and-DM, ADX (weekly dynamics) Source: Reuters thus considered indicators on the weekly chart indicates continued downward movement of prices of the index fund for gold Gold Trust, administered by the company SPDR. If prices could break through the middle line, Bollinger Bands, they most likely will rush to the bottom of the indicator, otherwise they will continue to move between the middle and upper lines, Bollinger Bands and reach of the preceding analysis of the target $ 117-120. In the latter case, open positions for the purchase should be based on the following signals: discrepancies lines DM and-DM, as well as the growth of ADX, MACD indicator crossing its signal line upwards, crossing the slow stochastically in or near a zone of "oversold", as well as movements relative strength index RSI up.

Latin America: Bovespa was the foremost thanks to news from Cosan

Wednesday, March 17, 2010 23:15

  Monday, February 1, the stock markets in Latin America with a few exceptions, have shown positive dynamics. Closing of the American indexes in "green" zone on the background of increasing business activity in the sphere of the U.S. supported the optimistic mood of market participants. Brazilian index of Bovespa, in turn, the stronger the maximum value for the last month, after news emerged that the company Cosan plans to merge its Brazilian assets to the British Royal Dutch Shell. As a result of trading a key index of Brazil Bovespa rose 1.79% to a level of 66,571.74 points, the Argentine Merval was harder to 0,66%, and Chilean Ipsa rose by 0,62%. Bidding in Mexico did not pass and the markets of Venezuela and Colombia did not support the general upward momentum. Brazilian real appreciated by 2.5%, which was the maximum increase from 29 October last year, and closed on a mark to 1.8482 per U.S. dollar. Representatives of Goldman Sachs Group announced that they intend to buy the Brazilian national currency. Quotes Cosan SA Industria Comercio, the world"s largest processor of sugar and ethanol soared by 11%. Representatives of Cosan and the leading European oil company Royal Dutch Shell reported on the signing of an agreement regarding the consolidation of assets in Brazil. Under the deal, Shell committed to invest $ 1.93 billion in the joint venture and transfer assets, including 2 740 repair bases. Latin America"s largest bank Banco do Brasil reported that net income for the three months ending Dec. 31 could be at 1.6 billion reais ($ 844 million) higher than previously calculated rate due to the translation of monetary assets, issued by the pension scheme for employees. As a result, shares of Banco do Brasil "recovered" at 6,8%. Paper in Latin America, a leading operator of railways ALL America Latina Logistica moved by 4,3% against the expected increase in traffic. The third-largest steel worker in Brazil Cia. SiderurgicaNacional earned a bid to 1,3% of market capitalization after it reported that he intends to issue promissory notes totaling $ 10 billion reais. Quotes of the oil company OGX Petroleo Gas Participacoes, owned by billionaire Mr Eike Batista, rose by 3%. It is expected that the volume of recoverable reserves of "black gold" on deposit OGX-4, located in a tectonic block BM-C-42, range from 100 million to 200 million barrels. Values of the basic indexes on closing are resulted in the table: Index Country Closing Change (items) Change (%) value at beginning of year (the last closing in 2009) Change YTD MerVal Argentina 2,313.81 15.26 0.66% 2320.73 -0.30% Bovespa Brazil 66,571.74 1,169.97 1.79% 68588.4 -2.94% IBC Venezuela 59,258.98 -47.37 -0.08% 55075.7 7.60% IGBC Colombia 11,510.00 -41.45 -0.36% 11602.1 -0.79% Bolsa Mexico 30,391.61 -419.74 -1.36% 32120.5 -5.38% IGBVL Peru 14,512.75 72.7 0.50% 14167.2 2.44% IGPA &ame13p;lt;td> Chile 17,689.44 94.8 0.54% 16630.9 6.36% IPSA Chile 3,832.55 23.59 0.62% 3581.42 7.01%

U.S.: Business activity in the industrial sphere has intensified bulls

Wednesday, March 17, 2010 20:25

  Monday, February 1, the U.S. stock market finished the session in a significant plus. The first trading day of the month is traditionally a day of output data on business activity in the sphere of production around the world - The January figures have increased and surpassed expectations in the United States and Europe. This rate of expansion in U.S. industrial production rose the strongest way more than 5 years, according to the January business activity. From the corporate sphere - the quarterly reporting Exxon Mobil surpassed expectations and supported the growth of the main indexes. Following the session, the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 118.20 points or 1.17% to a level of 10,185.53 points, the index is a broad market Standard Poor "s 500 rose 15.31 points, or 1.43% to a mark 1,089.18 points and the index of high-technology Nasdaq Composite has left in plus on 23,85 points or 1,11% to reach 2,171.20 points mark. On the commodity market, the March crude oil futures for light on the results of the auctions on NYMEX prices increased by 2,1% to a level of $ 74.43 per barrel. Gold for February delivery added a 2% to a level of $ 1,104.30 per troy ounce.

Europe: if statistics is good, investors sings soul

Wednesday, March 17, 2010 13:30

  Monday, February 1, the major stock markets of the European region have completed the session in the Green Zone. The beginning of the week marked the release of macroeconomic data, inspire, both within the region and in the United States. Thus most of the indicators was of a positive nature. In particular, data on personal income of American citizens, as well as the ISM index of business activity in the industrial area of the U.S. were better than analysts" expectations. Optimism added statistics, according to which the index of business activity in the industry in the euro area amounted to 52.4 points in January, while the estimated value of the index level at 52 points. Left alone in the macroeconomic data for an index of business activity in industries in countries such as Switzerland, Germany and Britain also exceeded analysts" expectations and remained at a level above 50 points. An important index for the upward trend began to events associated with the British water company Northumbrian Water and the Irish airline Ryanair, raised its estimate for net profit. As a result of trading a key index of the UK FTSE 100 has become harder to 1,14%, French CAC 40 index was strengthened by 0,6%, while the German DAX closed in positive territory at 0.81%. Regional index Dow Stoxx 600 advanced at 0.59% and closed at a level of 248.42 points. According to informed sources, the Canadian pension fund Ontario Teachers" Pension Plan is planning to offer 1.7 billion pounds ($ 2.7 billion) for the remaining interest in British water companies Northumbrian Water Group (currently the fund owns 27% of its shares).

Latin America: Brazil helped unemployment, Chile prevent industrial production

Saturday, February 27, 2010 12:17

  Thursday, January 28, the main share indexes of Latin America have finished day with multidirectional dynamics. indicator of equity market of Brazil Bovespa rose by 0,8% to a mark of 65 587.81 points. Brazilian Real with weakened to 0.38% to 1,866 reais per dollar. strong support markets has reduced unemployment in the country in December to a record low 6.8%, and the words of representatives of Bank of America that the key interest rate Brazil will remain at a minimum value until June of this year. Shares steelmaker CSN have added 2.9%, while its rival Usiminas increased by 2.4% on expectations of strengthening demand for cars and homes due to low interest rates and the stabilization of the labor market. Quotes bank Itau Unibanco Holding jumped 3%, while the owner of the largest in Latin America Stock Exchange BM FBovespa became heavier at 3.3%. Papers cargo container terminal operator Santos Brasil Participacoes, however, have fallen by 6,1% against the publication of 4 quarter loss of $ 5.3 million reais ($ 2.83 million), against analysts expected profit of 16.3 million reais .

United States: the Fed does not expect big surprises, but the bulls in any case excluded themselves

Tuesday, February 23, 2010 4:14

  Tuesday, 26 January, the U.S. market finished the trading session in a small minus in spite of the fact that most of the auctions the index rose. In the course of the session contributed to the dominance of bulls released at 18:00 IST statistics on consumer confidence in January - the index rose 3 points to a mark of 55.9 points and was on average 4.5% better than expectations. Among-reporting companies were more of those who managed to beat forecasts - Apple, Travelers, Tellabs, Corning. Nevertheless, in the last hour of trading the oxen chose to take profits in anticipation of the coming meeting of the Fed. While a rate hike at this meeting, no one expects today"s session could go in unpredictable ways, because the investment environment are waiting for hints from the Fed with regard to phasing out the monetary incentive. Following the session, the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.57 points, or 0.03% to a level of 10,194.29 points, the index is a broad market Standard Poor "s 500 has decreased by 4.61 points, or 0.42% to a mark 1,092.17 points and the index of high-technology Nasdaq Composite went in at minus 7.07 points, or 0.32% to 2,203.73 points mark. On the commodity market, the March crude oil futures for light on the results of the auctions on NYMEX fell 0,7% to a level of $ 74.71 per barrel. Gold for February delivery, which added 0.2% to a level of $ 1,098.30 per troy ounce. &l1000t;br>The financial sector led the correctional movement, stepping on 1,7% in the broad market index against the backdrop of continuing concerns about threats to Obama push hard for the regulation.

Technical Analysis of American Depository Receipts Vale

Monday, February 22, 2010 11:16

  Our assumptions regarding the movement of American depositary receipts of Brazilian mining company Vale, presented in the preceding analysis, justified. Prices for some time stayed close to the level of 26,50, and then slowly continued their upward movement and reached the mark in 30,65, where the level of 61,8% of Fibonacci (Fig. 1). However, to break the resistance specified ADRs failed, and they rushed back to the level of 50% Fibonacci. Fig. 1 Weekly dynamics ADRs Vale     Source: Reuters   Currently the weekly chart convergence of moving averages with a period of 8 and 21 indicates a weakening of the uptrend (Fig. 1). Lines MACD indicator on the weekly chart (Figure 2) intersected, which is usually a strong enough signal to sell. However, other indicators are presented in Fig. 2, have not confirmed such an action. Thus, the line changes direction indicator is located above the DM-DM, and the line ADX, despite the reversal, had no time to drop significantly, slowing their movement. The Stochastic RSI oscillator is also on its way down met with resistance and had swept away the wave number of ardor. Nevertheless, it is worth noting divergence observed in the graphs of prices and the RSI indicator and marked in Fig. 3 purple lines. Thus, the price on the weekly schedule from November last year, continues to conquer new peaks, while the corresponding local maxima of a stochastic oscillator under consideration, on the contrary, showing a decrease. This movement is usually a sign of price stabilization, which may be follo1000wed by a strong correction.   Fig. 2 Indicators DM and-DM, ADX, MACD, RSI (weekly Dynamics)     Source: Reuters   Fig. 3 Weekly dynamics ADRs Vale and Stochastics RSI     Source: Reuters   Thus, the analysis of weekly charts of price movements of American depositary receipts of Brazilian mining company Vale can be concluded a possible correction, indicated by the convergence of exponential moving averages, the divergence of timetables, prices and an indicator RSI, and intersections of lines MACD. The closest level of support will make a mark in 26,58 (50% Fibonacci). Close to the specified value at the moment are moving average with period 21 and the centerline of Bollinger Bands (Fig. 4), which can also act as a support when moving downwards. In the case of crossing the midline of Bollinger Bands is possible to reduce to the lower limit. If the RSI indicator will turn up, and following its peak corresponding to a new high in the chart price will lie above the previous one, then we can talk about the end of the correction and extension of the current uptrend.

Asia: China frightens the whole region

Monday, February 22, 2010 8:15

  Tuesday, 26 January, the stock markets of the Asia-Pacific region amid expectations tightening of monetary policy in China and to slow the growth of Chinese economy, which could lead to all the major economies of the world, finished the day with a predominantly negative dynamics. general indicator of the regional MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.8% to a value of 119.42 points. Japanese Nikkei 225 has weakened to 1.78%, while the broad market indicator Topix decreased by 1,95%. Papers of the operator of the largest in the world merchant fleet Mitsui OSK Lines collapsed at 4% on concern the reduction of cargo transportation in the event of a slowdown in economic growth in China. Shares wireless phone network operator KDDI have fallen by 8,6%. The company reduced its forecast for annual profit of 255 billion yen, is expected in October, up to 225 billion yen ($ 2.5 billion), and also agreed to buy 38% stake in the television cable company Jupiter Telecommunications for $ 4 billion Quotes Jupiter Telecommunications at the same time fell 6 , 6%. Hong Kong Hang Seng finished the day by a decrease of 2,38%. Shares of the largest capitalization on the World Bank International Commercial Bank of China slipped to 3.4%, while its rival Bank of China fell 3.4%. Analysts at Goldman Sachs lowered the recommendation of the Chinese banks, which have already taken steps to reduce the volume growth of new lending. Quotes Foxconn International Holdings, engaged in the production of mobile phones on contract, abated from its asset 8,7%. Representatives of the firm reported a forecast "significant" reduction of profits in 2009, even though "encouraging improvement" in the second half of the year. Stock Indicator South Korea"s Kospi declined by 1.97%. Papers Korea Line shipping company, slid 4.4% on concern that slowing turnover in the case of "cooling" of the Chinese economy. Stock Exchange of India and Australia were closed due to national holiday. Values of the basic indexes on closing are resulted in the table: Index Country Closing (items) Delta day (items) Change day (%) Change YTD SP /ASX 200 Australia 4717,90 -32,70 -0,69% -3,14% &1000lt;tr> All Ordinaries Australia 4743, 10 -28,80 -0,60% -2,86% Ho Chi Minh Vietnam 497,90 16 , 99 3,53% 0,63% Hang Seng Hong Kong 20109,33 -489,22 -2,38% -8,06% Hang Seng H-shares Hong Kong 11410,12 -448,34 -3,78% -10,82% BSE 30 (Sensex) India 16780,46 -79,22 -0,47% -3,92% Jakarta Composite Indonesia 2578,42 -19,44 -0,75% 1,74% Shanghai A-shares China 3166,19 -78,80 -2,43% -7,89% CSI 300 China 3242,80 -85,22 -2,56% -9,31% KLSE Composite Malaysia 1283 , 02 -13,77 -1,06% 0,80 % NZSE 50 New Zealand 3209,06 20,41 0,64% -0,65% Karachi 100 &1000;lt;td> Pakistan 9662,32 -26,88 -0,28% 2,93% Straits Times Singapore 2740,33 -71,38 -2,54 % -5,43% Bangkok SET Thailand 492,39 -7,170 -1,44% -5,44 % TAIEX Taiwan 7598,81 -274,18 -3,48% -7,20% PSEi Philippines 2955,70 -12,26 -0,41% -3,18% Colombo All-Shares Sri Lanka 3591,38 36,93 1 , 04% 6,08% KOSPI South Korea 1637,34 -32,86 -1,97% -- 2,70% Nikkei 225 Japan 10325,28 -187,41 -1,78% -2,10% Topix Japan 916,40 -18,19 -1,95% 0,97%

USA: January”s season “discounts” was short-lived

Sunday, February 21, 2010 0:14

  Monday, 25 January, the U.S. stock market finished the trading session in a slight increase, despite the fact that data on housing sales in the secondary market have been more than disappointing. Recall that the number of homes sold in December on the secondary market decreased compared to November more than a million units and reached 5.45 million, ie by 7,6% worse than average prognosis. On1000e of the key news of the day was the information on the likely approval of Mr. Bernanke, a new term at the helm of the Fed. Following the session, the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 23.88 points, or 0.23% to a level of 10,196.86 points, the index is a broad market Standard Poor "s 500 rose 5.02 points, or 0.46% to a mark 1,096.78 points and the index of high-technology Nasdaq Composite has left in plus on 5,51 points, or 0.25% to 2,210.80 points mark. On the commodity markets dominated by a positive, as fears of China had to settle after several successive sales. The March crude oil futures on the NYMEX rose 1% to a level of $ 75,26 per barrel, while the February futures on the COMEX gold prices increased by 0,6% to a mark of 1,095.70 per troy ounce.

Asia: Obamovskie plans did not give the rest

Friday, February 19, 2010 22:17

  Monday, January 25, the major stock markets of the Asian region have shown negative dynamics of the sixth session in a row. Even last week, U.S. President Barack Obama announced his plans regarding the regulation of financial institutions, in particular, limits on the size of the banks and they have taken risks, have sown fear of future profits of banking institutions. In addition, the tightening of monetary policy by the Chinese Government is not the first day of worrying market participants, and casts doubt on the prospects for the global economy as a whole. As a result of trades Japanese Nikkei 225 index sank 0.74%, Chinese CSI 300 has become easier to 1,13%, while Australia SP /ASX 200 fell by 0.69%. Regional indicator MSCI Asia Pacific has lowered from its asset 0,7%, to close at a mark of 121.57 points. Exception to the general downward trend began markets of Vietnam and Sri Lanka. The third largest bank, China Bank of China retreated 2.1% against the planned sale of convertible bonds to raise $ 5.86 billion as a result, quotes the Chinese Bank of Communications fell 2.5%. Shares in Australia"s largest company specializing in property insurance and accidents, QBE Insurance Group fell 0.7% after Deutsche Bank analysts lowered their rating to "buy" to "hold".