In the rays of glory today the British Pound Sterling: GBP rally started with the start of the European session, the currency has consistently overcome the key marks and eventually reached 1.6455. Additional support for “Britishness” had data on the UK (CPI 0,6% m /m, 2,9% y /y).

Economists, however, believe that the rise of the pound was unfounded, since a positive statistic data to rejoice too early - the economy Albion have not yet emerged from recession.

But the single European currency on Tuesday unlucky so unlucky: and so a weak euro was an incentive to continue the downward movement after the publication of data on the ZEW E-16, which unexpectedly turned out to be weaker than expected. So, EUR rolled with the level of 1.4360 to 1.4330, reaching eventually to 1.4321.

Vista bidding on a pair of EUR /USD has seen a negative, because many factors at play today against the Euro-currency. In that case, if the euro continues downward movement and strikes a mark 1.4300, where the level of support, paving the way towards 1.4280 and then 1.4260.

In the second half of the day scheduled for publication of data on the U.S. - an indicator of new building projects and production activity in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, which projected weak.

Estimated corridor trades EUR /USD pair to the end of the day - 1.4300-1.4400.

Adjust, Russia”s stock index is likely to resume growth
NOVATEK in 2009, increased gross gas production by 6% to 32.8 billion cubic meters
New investment opportunities from the company iShares
Kraft Foods agreed to a merger with Cadbury over 19.4 billion dollars
Bank of Russia this year lowered the discount rate to 7%
Growth of production in agriculture in Ukraine in 2009 amounted to 0,1%
Forex - in the European session
Despite the correction of the local oil market quotation supports the positive dynamics od23f the overseas indices
As a result of trading the MICEX currency market the U.S. dold25lar in the UTS with the calculations of “tomorrow” was 29.6343 rubles. per dollar

“In 2009, he was a good basis for implementation of the Olympic projects within the Government of the RF period. The work underway in accordance with the schedule,” - said RZD President Vladimir Yakunin. According to him, in 2010 the company will have to fulfill the scope of work in the 1.5 - 2 times greater than in the past.

So, this year”s performance of design and construction works for the project combined (road and rail) road Adler - mountainous resort “Alpika - Service” will be sent to 60 billion rubles. In addition, will be held the following work:

• renting in the interim operation of the first 6 km of roads with two interchanges, which will close the ring road around the airport, providing a departure from Imeretinsk Valley on the existing road to Krasnaya Polyana bypassing Adler;

• completion of the tunneling railway tunnel number 2 (130 meters) and number 6 (425 meters), service tunnels (drifts) of the complex number 1 (2273 meters), and number 5 (2813 meters);

• Construction at the site of the second way Sochi - Adler - Merry 5 large railway bridges over the river Mzymta, disturbance, Hosta, Agur, Kudepsta and 8 small bride96ges;

• Home tunneling number 6-bis and number 7 bis and construction of new terminal complex “Imereti resort” and “Adler”;

• commissioning of double track inserts for 3-spans: Dagomys - Sochi, Sochi - disturbance, anchor slot - Loo, a total length of 7,2 km to enhance the railway line Tuapse - Adler;
• Start construction of 49 housing sleeping rooms of the sanatorium “Cape prominent and renovation of passenger terminals Dagomys, Sochi, Macesta and Hosta;

• facility construction of the railway section Adler - Sochi airport to pass the installation of the equipment under the passenger hall of the airport complex, to provide tunneling number 1 (164 meters) and number 2 (321 meters).

The investment for these projects in 2010 amount to 11.8 billion rubles.
Leaders act to reduce stocks of oil, steel and telecom sectors
It is difficult to imagine how these wd68ill be completed volatile trading, after pouring oil on the fire brightly vacillating oil prices
Vladimir Putin has authorized the Baikal Pulp and Paper Mill to resume production
Rally of mining and oil sectors against the backdrop of rising prices for raw materials has helped European markets finish in positive territory Monday trading
EU finance ministers called on Greece to actively combat the budget deficit
ECB: The threat of a recession in the euro area re unlikely
President entrusted the North Caucasus Alexander Khloponin
An interesting idea can become tomorrow”s paper metallurgical sector, whd30ich today traded worse than the market
Oil prices hamper the enthusiasm of investors: in the course of trading on the MICEX index dropped 1,460 points support

Despite the attempt to open the market to continue yesterday”s upward movement, the Bears were able to seize the initiative and, against the backdrop of oil prices, with Brent futures dropped below $ 77, and the negative statistics from Europe, increase Russia”s platform on negative territory. Later the market there has been a slight adjustment that allowed by the middle of the day partially offset reduction. The main factor for future market dynamics will report Citigroup, which will be published before the opening of U.S. markets. He set the tone for the dynamics on the closure of our sites and to the U.S. trading session. If the report will be better than expectations, Russia”s market will turn around and the end of bidding to return to the levels of previous day”s close. If the report adds the negative, then we can expect that the Bears” support of the strikes at 1460 points and the MICEX index closed the day below that level.

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Analyst Ratings

Dynamics of oil continues to disappoint the players, shares of Transneft reduced by 2,9% after yesterday”s rise
Shares “peak” substantially add to costs against recovery in demand for residential and commercial property
Prices for nickel in 2010 will be under pressure
Review of the precious metals market for 18.01.10
The technical analysis of currency pairs 19.01.2009
Poland may forgive the debt to Gazprom for gas transit
Experts do not like the fuel of Ukrtatnafta
Hryvnia turnover of electronic payments via WebMoney in 2009 rose to 1.4 billion UAH
Analytics - the outcome of the day

Energy, World Stock Market, Currency, Weather …

Oil prices yesterday showed growth for the first time in the past few trading sessions, which had a tangible support to the domestic indices. Unfortunately, closer to the closing quotation of the two varieties of “black gold” had gone down. As a result, on the basis of the trading day Monday, energy prices have not changed. This morning Brent and WTI show weakly expressed negative dynamics. Both varieties are traded below those marks, which Russia traders watched yesterday at the close of our exchanges. It is possible that the day quotes oil again try to go up, given the observed morning weakening U.S. currency. But even if we see growth, he is unlikely to be sustainable and lasting. Until Thursday, oil traders will be difficult to determine the further direction of motion, as this day the publication of two important players of the oil market news. Will be released in the tanks U.S. stocks for the previous week and the most important statistics for China in December, traditionally a strong impact on commodity trading platforms.

Recommendations for market shares: LUKoil, Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank “
Ministry of Finance: The budget deficit of Russia in 2009 amounted to 2.326 trillion rubles
Recovery commodity prices held the rise in stock markets
Asia: Reporting spite the expectation of weak banks and high-tech sector
Inflation in the UK accelerated in December, a record
Bankers Strike Back
The Ukrainian parliament has not overcome a veto on the law on the moratorium on the sale of agricultural lands
Energometodiku change
At 16.00 Moscow time the volume of trading in the market for government securities MICEX amounted to 48.69 billion rubles

At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the February futures price of U.S. light crude rose by 0.25, or 0.1%, and its price was 78.25 dollars per barrel.

The exchange ICE in London cost of Brent crude futures rose 0.16, or 0.1%, to 77.27 dollars per barrel.

Causes
On Monday, Jan. 18 quotes on the market of “black gold” were closed with an increase in price by the following factors: 1 - a slight drop in the dollar in the FOREX market after economic makrostatistiki and news, 2 - to strengthen the stock of sites where Europe”s main stock index closed in green zone (FTSE100 - 5494.39 (39.02, or 0.72), CAC40 - 3977.46 (23.08, or 0.58), Xetra DAX - 5918.55 (42.58, or 0.72)) - U.S. financial markets were closed on Monday in connection with the celebration of Martin Luther King Day 3 - positive dynamics of the neighboring markets, namely the strengthening of prices for precious metals.

What to expect?
Many analysts point to the fact that oil prices are still within the trading range of 75-85 dollars per barrel. This indicates that oil prices may have the potential for further growth. The close relationship between oil prices and U.S. dollar is expected to continue to set the tone for trading on the oil market.

Why worry?
The main negative factors in the oil market are U.S. dollar and the technical picture, namely, the psychological and technical level of 85 dollars per barrel, which does not allow to pass higher oil prices, thereby encouraging market participants to lock in profits on the open long positions.

In 2009, TMK has reduced shipments of pipe production by 13% to 2.792 million tons
Gradual awakening
Hugo Chavez nationalize supermarkets
Fitch: Economic recovery a positive impact on structured finance in Europe
BP refused to include in the agenda a bill on amending the law on presidential elections
Gas cheaper
Coefficient of the disease

2009 budget was expected unfulfilled. Nevertheless, in 2010, the fiscal pressures on the economy will continue to rise …

In the stock market positive tendencies

Last week was the first full trading week …

Oil continues to decline, dragging down the share prices of companies of Russia TEK

Fig. 1. History of the basis (within days).

The number of open positions with the beginning of trading has declined by 2500 and amounts to 116,500 contracts (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. Changing the open position (within days).

In the long term the market remains in a downtrend. The volatility of the March Putov “outside money” higher than the volatility of the March call “outside money” (Fig. 3). We are witnessing “volatility smirk”, which signals that will soon resume downward trend.

Fig. 3. Exchange IV (within days).

If we talk about the number of open positions, the maximum number - of putakh LK17000BO9 (put max, Fig. 4) and Collen LK18000BC9 (call max, Fig. 4).

Fig. 4. Levels of optional support /resistance.

The most likely scenario: a reduction in the area 14000.
Least likely scenario: growth in the region 18000.

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Analyst Ratings

NBU asks commercial banks to provide information about proceedings relating to foreign currency loans
Asian indexes fall on Tuesday 2 nd consecutive session after shares of banks and industrial enterprises
The domestic market may keep a positive attitude, ignoring the reversal pattern
Recommendations on RTS Index futures on Tuesday
Recommendations on the shares of Gazprom, Lukoil, Transneft “and” FGC UES “
Before the publication of reports Citibank and IBM Russia”s markets will move in “Comma delimited”
In leaders are reducing Gazprom Neft and Uralsvyazinform, id28n the “plus” traded securities OGK-5 and “Sberbank”
The total loan portfolio TMK 31 December 2009 amounted to $ 3.7 billion
The cost of mortgage loans in 2010 will decline

The euro /dollar rose in the Asian session to the level of 1.4411. Support for the euro against the dollar has appreciation of the pound /dollar, which has grown today to a mark 1.6436. The market has information on what the U.S. company Kraft Foods Inc. is close to buying the British company Cadbury PLC for $ 19 billion.

Currency

dollar /yen fell to 90.31. Expected bankruptcy of the company Japan Airlines may increase the Yen, as companies need to recover their funds from abroad and buy yen.

Meary China to tighten monetary policy, putting pressure on the rates of the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

After Weekend in the U.S. today, trading volumes are low, which contributes to sharp fluctuations in exchange rates.

Euro continues to remain under pressure due to investors” anxiety about the situation with the budget deficit in Greece.

This week, investors” attention will be directed to the publication of financial statements of major American companies for the fourth quarter of 2009, in particular, banks Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs. These data could have a noticeable effect on the behavior of U.S. stock indices.

Today is scheduled for release the following data:

at 09:30 GMT - harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in the UK in December (forecast 0.2% per month, 2.4% for the year, the previous value of 0.3% per month, 1.9% for the year);

at 09:30 GMT - retail price index (Retail prices) in the UK in December (forecast 0.3% per month, 2.0% for the year, the previous vee7alue of 0.3% per month, 0.3% for the year);

at 09:30 GMT - inflation index “RPI-X” in the UK in December (forecast 3.5% per year, the previous value of 2.7% per year);

at 10:00 GMT - an index of business expectations of the German Center for Economic Research (ZEW economic expectations index) in Germany in January (forecast 49.5, the previous value of 50.4);

at 13:55 GMT - economic survey of retail sales, “Redbook” (Redbook) for the past week in the U.S.;

at 14:00 GMT - the volume of purchases by foreign investors of U.S. assets (data TICS) in billions of dollars in the U.S. for November (the previous value of -13.9);

at 14:00 GMT - results of the meeting of the Governing Board of the Bank of Canada;

at 23:50 GMT - an index of business activity in the services sector (Tertiary activity index) in Japan for November (forecast 0.0%, the previous value of 0.5 %).

IEA: OPEC does not need to increase the level of oil production in 2010
Kommersant: Guarantee quality without

The state support shafts reduces their investprivlekatelnost …

Russia”s players record profits, with the direction of further movement of the market will be determined after reporting Citigroup
At 13.00 Moscow time trade on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 83.1915 billion rubles
Negative factor in the market of non-ferrous metals appear significant fluctuations in the currency market and weak demand
The worst of the market, probably under the influence of technical factors, the securities traded today, a number of metallurgical and mining companies
As one of the most favorable sectors should now be noted Metallurgical Sector
Speculative recommendation on shares of Polyus Gold, Gazprom, Lukoil, Sberbank and VTB
Shareholders fund Finam - Information Technologies “will receive the investment income

On the morning of Tuesday, the Asian indexes mostly lower. In a slight positive territory remains the market in China, waiting for the publication of key macroeconomic data on Thursday. It reduces indices of Japan, Australia, Hong Kong.

The U.S. market was closed on Friday near zero values, on Tuesday morning futures on indexes NASDAQ and SP show growth within 0.8 pm.

Russia”s ADRs were in demand yesterday: the shares of steel and coal companies have shown gains, gold remained in the negative. Oil and gas securities moved different direction: Lukoil, Rosneft increased, Tatneft - negative. Telecom and e-power also shut down growth.

RTS Futures on the basis of evening trades rose by 0,2%.

Today publish the results of the reporting company Citigroup, and the results of Russia”s production company X5 Retail Group. From the macroeconomic statistics are data on capital inflows in the United States and the index of business optimism.

view is not very data-intensive external background, the market of Russia may continue countervailing dynamics of quotations. Selective growth continues today in the shares of almost all sectors of the market: the market dynamics better than expected on the shares of Sberbank, IDC Holding. Dynamics of shares of oil and gas sector will depend on the dynamics of oil futures during the day. Morning futures are about $ 76.8 marks, down from yesterday”s levels at 0.7%. Grow up paper can be gold-mining companies in the preservation of the growing dynamics of futures for gold during the day (the price level rose in the evening, compared with yesterday. By 9:00 - adjusted to yesterday”s levels). There is also increasing futures nickel to $ 1906.

In anticipation of corporate reports this week, and data from China, Russia”s market is likely to keep a positive attitude.

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Analyst Ratings

Data on stocks of petroleum products in the U.S. this week will come late in the day, is expected to increase reserves for all parameters of the report
This afternoon, the results for the 4 quarter will present Citigroup, and in the evening - IBM
On Tuesday, the fuse to the growth of Russia”s stock market may calm down
Commissioning of blast furnace number 7 will allow NLMK in 2012 to increase the volume of crude steel by 40%
Cargo ports in Russia in 2009 increased by 9,2% to 496.4 million tons
Board of Directors Bashkirenergo headed by presidential chief of staff of Bashkortostan Nicholas Kurapov
Review of the FOREX market for 18.01.10
The COP recognized the establishment of constitutional government “Ukrspetstorga” and the elimination of the Department of State surplus property and land
Opinion: For the Ukrainian banks remains the main issues of concern debt

During the first half of January the cost of motorists favored A-95 rose by 6% - to 7,5 UAH. /l, the same amount has increased and diesel, which is now worth more than 6,2 UAH. /l. Dealers attributed this rise in price with cold weather conditions (accompanied by an increase in fuel consumption in the urban cycle), as well as the rising cost of black gold at the end of 2009 (10% - to $ 77/barrel).

Together with this recently, another event occurred, which might well become the basis for more expensive fuel. It is about changing the basic strategy of the retail market - the group “Privat”. Since the beginning of this year, it raised the price of its gas stations by 4% - to 7,2 UAH. /Liter. This was probably due to the fact that December 23, 2009 Cabinet abolished the technical conditions for the production of so-called components of gasoline KB-92 and CB-95, which are less traditional counterparts of high-quality fuel.

Government”s decision affected more than others “Privat”, since the Kremenchug refinery, part of this business group, recently started production of KB-92 and CB-95 in order to save on excise taxes (the rate of charge with the fuel components is equal to only 20 euros /t, whereas for conventional gasoline - 110 euros /ton). By reducing the cost of paying excise Dnepropetrovsk businessmen could sell fuel cheaper than competitors in the 30-40 kopecks per liter. Now, the above-mentioned decision of the Cabinet made the economy “Privat” on Excise impossible, forcing Igor Kolomoisky revise its dumping strategy.

noteworthy that growth has occurred for the first time in the past few months has allowed oil magnates to tighten rates to forecasts of expert-analytical group on the functioning of the market of petroleum and petroleum products, which each decade counting the cost of fuel. Thus, in the second decade of January the aforementioned group forecasted price per liter of A-95 in the amount of 7,47 UAH., Whereas in Kiev and Crimea gas stations it currently exceeds 7,7 UAH. In Ukrneftekhimpererabotka upon which to establish an expert-analytical group, said that what happened more expensive - not the limit. According to the head of the association Vladimir Emelina, at the current quotation of black gold price of fuel soon may rise by another 4%.

“The price of oil stabilized at around $ 77/barrel. When (autumn 2009 - Ed ..) it cost about $ 74-75/barrel, we had the price at petrol stations in 7,9-7,95 grn. /l therefore, subject to maintaining the current cost of oil to the end of January the 95 th may grow by up to 7,8-7,9 grn. /l “, - the Emelin. According to him, the fuel may rise in value more rapidly for several reasons. One of them - the oil dispute between Russia and Belarus, which can result in increased costs for Ukraine or Belarus fuels, or his temporary disappearance from the market. The essence of the dispute lies in the fact that Belarusians are insisting on oil supplies from Russia without payment of duties (in accordance with the Agreement on the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan). And Russia agreed to supply duty free only for internal purposes Belarus (in the year is about 6 million tons).

If the remaining amount (about 20 million tons /year), the Russians offered to supply with a duty rate, which varies monthly (for example, in January so, she makes $ 267 /t). This confrontation is still ongoing, and in the course of the parties have already started to use heavy artillery. For example, Russia”s Transneft said that may temporarily suspend pumping oil to Belarus.

If this happens, the country”s main refinery - Mozyr and Novoplotsky - will remain the same raw materials. Thus, we may temporarily lose its largest supplier of imported petroleum products (up to 2009 in our country was put about 950 thousand tons of Belarusian diesel engine and just over 680 thousand tons of gasoline, representing respectively 45 and 40% of total imports fuel in Ukraine). Place Belarusian fuel in the domestic market will take other importing countries. In this role may well speak, for example, Lithuania and Romania, whose fuel is comparable in quality to Belarus. But for local motorists such a change will result in increased costs of fuel. We have a ton, for example, A-95 manufactured in Belarus in Ukraine in large opte worth 8.99 ths., While the Romanian - 9,03, and Lithuania - 9,29.

Another impetus to the rapid increase in fuel prices, by assumption, Vladimir Emelina was launched last week the next stage of the devaluation of the national currency (by 1,5% - to 8,13 grn. /$ 1). However, please note that the projected head Ukrneftekhimpererabotka galloping rise in price of petroleum products in Ukraine could happen if the further increase will Privat. Otherwise, market participants are likely to simply do not dare to build the price gap with competitors from Dnepropetrovsk.

Dmitry Ryasnii

Board of Directors of Japan Airlines has decided to bankruptcy airline
Kommersant: Importers shorten
Ukraine may be new “Khrushchev”

predicting the real estate market square meters of 300-400 dollars …

Russia Market in no hurry to be adjusted, the money coming into the market can maintain its position
The level of support for fixed-term contract on RTS index performance in March for today - 158 950 points
The dynamics of trades within the day will depend not only on the situation on the oil market, but also on the news from Europe and the U.S.
In the growth leaders today were shares of steel companies, which is also supported by positive news about the Rusal IPO
In relation to many developing markets of Russia”s market now looks cheap enough
After lunch, the market of Russia will be possible to release reporting Citigroup, and which will form the basic dynamics of the movement of stock and commodity markets

Yesterday, U.S. markets were closed for the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. Futures for U.S. indexes and reached its peak last night, today in the morning somewhat lowered its temperature: SP 0,22%. Dollar exchange rate fell against the yen (90,45), but remained stable in the pair with the euro (1,44).

Prices for Brent oil also ushili lower elevations of evening and Tuesday morning we see them at $ 76.7 per barrel. Today”s trading on Asian exchanges mainly take place in the zone of moderate decrease in stock market indices: MSCI Asia -0,63%. The December data on the index of consumer confidence in Japan showed a decrease to 37.6 against 39.5 in November. Negative for the local market and brought the beginning of bankruptcy proceedings of the largest Japanese airline Japan Airlines.

Trading on Russia”s stock market today will begin a slight decline in the zone of quotations. Yesterday”s “bullish” sentiment in our market today will be resisting the urge of the players to take profits from speculative growth. The boom in prices for industrial metals market today in Asia, I think, will support the positions of the shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel. Due to the fact that this afternoon went a block of statistics from Europe, clearly the positive dynamics of our quotations and European exchanges, we can not see.

At 12-30 in the UK leave the data on December consumer inflation (forecast: 0.3% m /m, 2,6% y /y) and the index of retail prices. In the 13-00 waiting for publication of the January ZEW index of economic sentiment in the euro area (forecast: 48.0) and Germany (forecast: 50.0). In the 15-00 waiting for release of quarterly and annual reporting Citigroup - it will, perhaps, the most important data today. In 17-00 Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the discount rate. In the January 21-00 Exposure housing market index (NAHB) (forecast: 17).

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Analyst Ratings

Some support segment of investment in risk “has approaching the beginning of the next summit of leading countries of the world
Among the important corporate events can be distinguished reporting Citigroup, IBM will recoup the results tomorrow
Today, a wave of profit taking at the start of the trading day will contribute to the negative futures for U.S. indices
The resumption of the decline in oil prices would have a negative impact on the actions of Russian players
Forex: Currency traded howling in anticipation of the publication of statistics on the U.S.
Forex Market 19/01/2010
Euro zone finance ministers believe in the success of measures to address the fiscal crisis in Greece
Exchange rate of dollars saved without changes - a review of cash markets
Kommersant “: In 2009, industrial production decreased by 21,9%